Indianapolis Colts (0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Sunday December 11th, 2011. 1:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 14
M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, M.D.
By Jay Horne, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ind +16/Bal -16
Over/Under Total: 40½
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The Baltimore Ravens racked up their 3rd straight win last week with a 24-10 victory over the Browns. The win kept the Ravens tied for first in the AFC North with a respectable 9-3 mark on the year. This week the Ravens will get the luxury of hosting the winless Indianapolis Colts at M&T Bank Stadium as they go after their 10th win of the year. The general consensus may assume this should be an easy win for the Ravens as they attempt to narrow in on a playoff berth.
However, this Indianapolis team still has a lot of fight left in them. Last week the Colts trailed New England by 31-3 going into the 4th quarter. Instead of rolling over to accept defeat, the Colts rallied to score 21 points in the 4th quarter to make the game look much closer than it actually was. In fact, the late really helped Indianapolis cover the spread as they entered by 20.5 point dogs. This week the Colts look to keep that competitive fight and perhaps pull off a stunning upset in the process as they continue to try to avoid a winless season.
The Colts have to be enthused with the play of QB Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky took over for the inconsistent Curtis Painter at quarterback last week to try to put a temporary halt to the troubles behind center. Orlovsky did just that by completing 30 of 37 passing for 353 yards with 2 scores and 1 pick. The Colts have been looking for a person to post "Peyton Manning" type numbers all season and Orlovsky delivered in his first start. If Indianapolis can continue to get that type of effort out of Orlovsky, then the Colts receivers may actually get rewarded when they get open which has not been the case most of the year.
WR Pierre Garcon had a brilliant performance last week catching 9 balls for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. Garcon leads the team in receiving with 805 yards on the year. Star wide receiver Reggie Wayne has also posted decent numbers this season, despite the quarterback troubles, with 707 receiving yards on the year. Wayne and Garcon can really make it tough on opposing defenses in the passing game. Therefore if Orlovsky can have another solid outing, these two guys should be in for some more big plays this Sunday.
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However, the Ravens defense is one of the best units in the entire AFC and will definitely make it extremely tough on the Colts offense. Baltimore has the 3rd best defense in the NFL allowing just 287 yards and 16 points per game. Still, the Ravens need the offense to be a bit more consistent if they are truly going to make a run at the AFC Title this year. Running back Ray Rice has been great on the ground this season racking up 926 yards. Rice has also added 547 receiving yards, but it is what he does on the ground that keeps the offense in forward motion.
QB Joe Flacco has struggled a bit more than expected this season completing just 55% passing with 13 scores and 8 picks. Those struggles have caused the Ravens to keep the focus on the ground game often this season. While Rice is the ultimate threat out of the backfield, the Ravens can be an explosive offense when clicking in the air attack. WR Anquan Boldin is a big target on the outside who has amassed 779 yards on the year. Boldin is in a bit of a slump in recent weeks. When Boldin is making big catches in the passing game, he is the threat that can make defenses lose focus on stopping the run. It is extremely important that Flacco and Boldin start connecting in attempt to get this offense in playoff condition as the season winds down.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Last week the Colts offense was the best it has been all year. This week the Colts battle a Ravens team that is not known for scoring quickly. After all, the total is at the 41 mark meaning 16 points have a lot of value in this spot. If Orlovsky can put together another respectable performance, I like the Colts. Take Colts +16.
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