Indianapolis Colts (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS), Week 6 NFL Football, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 16, 2011, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio. TV: CBS
by Ryno, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Indy +7/CIN -7
Over/Under Total: 40.5
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A matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals where one team is 0-5 and the other is 3-2. Normally it's a given that the 0-5 team would be the Bengals and the better team would be the Colts. But not this year. Not now, when Peyton Manning has been down and out all season and may not come back until next year. Without Manning, the Colts have suffered with five straight losses to open the season. The Kerry Collins experiment failed miserably and now the Colts have turned to Curtis Painter at quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are off to a surprisingly good start. It's surprising because they are starting a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton and a rookie No. 1 wide receiver in A.J. Green. But the Bengals defense has held the team together, allowing 20 or fewer points in four of their five games and no more than 24 points in any game thus far.
Neither one of these offenses is superb, so don't expect a shootout or anything of that nature. Expect lots of punts, short offensive plays, and possibly some turnovers.
On top of all of the Colts' offensive woes, running back Joseph Addai went down with a hamstring injury on Sunday and is unlikely to play this Sunday against the Bengals. Replacing him will be rookie Delone Carter, who will probably split carries with Donald Brown.
The Colts started the season with an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Houston Texans, a performance that was difficult to watch for Colts fans. But since then, they kept every game relatively close but haven't been able to win games. They lost 27-19 to the Cleveland Browns (keeping that game close at home isn't much of an accomplishment whatsoever), 23-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and most recently 28-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
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The close battles with the Steelers and Buccaneers were encouraging but the latest defeat certainly was not. The Colts jumped out to an early 17-0 lead and appeared to be cruising to their first win of the season. But then the wheels fell off and the Chiefs rallied for the comeback victory. Now, the Colts hit the road for their first of three consecutive weeks away from home.
In two starts, Painter has a total of 558 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and no interceptions. His completion percentage is a tad under 50 percent but the yardage and efficiency is exactly what the Colts need. He had a 99.4 QB rating in his first start and a 115.8 QB rating against the Chiefs. If Painter continues to play that well, the Colts will get their share of wins this season.
After Addai went down, Carter came in and carried the ball 12 times for 22 yards and a touchdown. The Colts need to find a way to establish a running attack this week against the Bengals in order to open up the passing game for Painter. Pierre Garcon has been fabulous this season with 19 receptions for 420 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He has made big play after big play. Then, of course, there is Reggie Wayne, who has 22 receptions for 332 yards and one receiving touchdown.
For the Bengals, Dalton has been decent thus far in his rookie campaign with 1,047 passing yards, six passing touchdowns and five interceptions. Cedric Benson has been decent as well, but not great, with 401 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Green is leading the way as far as receivers are concerned with 24 receptions for 402 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
It hasn't been the Bengals offense that has won games this year. It's been their defense. If they can create some turnovers and limit their own turnovers, the Bengals will be in good shape against the Colts.
The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win, 7-0 ATS in their last seven AFC games, 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bengals.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Bengals aren't as good as this spread indicates and the Colts aren't as bad as the spread indicates. Indy COULD win this game straight up, so it's a no-brainer to take the points and bet the Colts.
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