Indianapolis Colts (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS)
NFL Week 16
Date and Time: Sunday, December 22, 2013, 1:00 p.m. EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: CBS/DirecTV 707
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: IND +7/KC -7
Over/Under Total: 44
Bet your Indy/KC pick at a sportsbook where you can deposit $100 to $500 and get a matching dollar for dollar 100% bonus + a FREE half point every time you bet your (2) favorite teams: GTBets.
Two teams already with their AFC playoff tickets punched get a chance to try and jockey for homefield advantage on Sunday, when the Indianapolis Colts travel west to rowdy Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in early-game action on CBS.
The Chiefs turnaround this season under first-year head coach Andy Reid and first-year QB Alex Smith is certainly one of the biggest and best stories of the 2013 NFL season, but with the Broncos showing signs of a late-season fade, Kansas City could sneak away with the AFC West title with a little divine intervention. Although, with a 6-1 record away from Arrowhead this season, the Chiefs may be better off settling for the wildcard route on the road.
The Colts have sort of limped their way through the past seven weeks, alternating wins and loses to the tune of a 4-3 record since November, including last week’s 25-3 yawner over Houston. Due to a lack of competition in the AFC South (Tenn., Jack. And Hou. combined 11 wins), Indy has enjoyed a playoff birth since September (alright, not really) and with the finale at home against the Jaguars, this Sunday will be the last chance they get to test themselves against a playoff-caliber opponent in the Chiefs … on the road.
The people setting the betting odds opened Sunday’s playoff-worthy tilt at Arrowhead with the hometown Chiefs as large 6.5-points favorites and the line has already gone up the hook to the full touchdown minus -7 at most sportsbooks.
The over/under total has seen a big jump early in the week, opening at 41.5 late on Sunday and by Tuesday it’s already up to 44 or 44.5 at most books both in Las Vegas and on the Web.
Call it a coincidence, but the Colts started going up-and-down this season when they lost receiver and leader Reggie Wayne. Indy has also been desperate to find a running game to go with Andrew Luck (only 228 ypg passing – 18th), and while Donald Brown has been better than Trent Richardson at running the ball the colts still lack the balance they had with Wayne on the perimeter.
Indy has also been hurt by a lack of run defense too, which doesn’t look good with Kansas City (126 ypg rushing – 11th) and Jamaal Charles waiting for the Colts bus to unload. Alex Smith had a season-high 158.3 QB rating last week with 5 touchdown throws to make it nine TDs in the last three weeks, but he’s still not a danger to go over the top on a defense which could limit his effectiveness and the Chiefs offense come the playoffs.
BET ON GAMES AT -105, NOT -110! BET SMART! --> 5DIMES
Last year the Colts went into Arrowhead in late December and won, 20-13, but that was a few short weeks before the old coaching regime was shown the door in favor of the re-tread Reid. The Colts are actually 4-1 SU at Arrowhead (dating back to 2000), and they own a 7-3 ATS record against the Chiefs including a 6-1 ATS on the road in this “series” if you go back further in history.
The total has been climbing higher and higher since it opened, but its actually the under that is 4-1 in their last five head-to-head meetings. The under is also 21-8 in the Chiefs last 28 home games, and 5-1 in December and 7-3 when the Colts play on grass … and its December and grass in Arrowhead on Sunday.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Chiefs are due for a stinker after scoring 56 points last week and 45 the week before. I’m going with the trend play and against the line movement, I’m taking the under of 44.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVIII. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd, 2014.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.