Note: If you're looking for the 2013 Week 13 matchup between these two teams, please go here: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick.
Indianapolis Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-5 SU, 5-3-1ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date and Time: Thursday, November 14th, 8:25pm
Where: LP Field, Nashville, TN
TV: NFL Network
by Bob Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: IND -2.5/TEN +2.5
Over/Under Total: 42
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This Thursday night in Nashville, the Indianapolis Colts will face off against the Tennessee Titans. Indy comes in at 6-3 and leading the AFC South, while the Titans sit two games behind them in second place. The Colts are coming off a very embarrassing loss to the St Louis Rams, while Tennessee is coming off just as bad a loss, letting the Jacksonville Jaguars record their first win of the season. The Colts are still in the drivers seat in the South division, but the Titans would like nothing more than to make them sweat it out a little. The line opens up with the Colts being favored by 2.5 points, and the over under is set at 42 total points. This is the first of two meetings between these teams this season, but they will be facing each other in two of the next three games on their respective schedules. I have no idea who sets up the NFL schedule, but he or she needs a good "talkin' to." On the surface your casual NFL fan would take the Colts with ease in this game, but don't be so quick to count out the Titans here. Let's take a look at this matchup
Before the 2013 season started, many thought that the Indianapolis Colts success last season was simply a flash in the pan. They thought the hype of a rookie quarterback, and the emotion of their head coach battling cancer carried this team to heights that they weren't worthy of. Well, the Colts are pretty darn good. They sit in the top spot of the AFC South, and they have already recorded wins over the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers. This team isn't flashy, but they can play with anyone. Second year quarterback, Andrew Luck is ranked 15th in the NFL in passing with over 2,100 yards passing, and he has also done a decent job of cutting down on the interceptions being thrown. He still has six on the season, but improvement can be seen each and every Sunday. Defensively, the Colts aren't overpowering, but they have done a good enough job keeping themselves in games. They were able to hold the 49ers to just seven points earlier in the year, so the potential for good D is there. In order to get this road win, Indy will need to make sure they do not turn the ball over. Tennessee has one of the leagues best passing defenses and they will not make things easy for Andrew Luck. Indy will need to balance the run attack with their pass in order to keep the Titan defense honest. If they can control the ball and win the time of possession, I see the Colts getting the win and the cover.
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The Titans will be sitting in 2nd place in the South, just two games behind Indianapolis in the standings. Tennessee had actually positioned themselves to compete for the division crown, but this past Sunday things went terribly bad for the Titans. Not only did they lose to the winless Jacksonville Jaguars, but they lost their quarterback, Jake Locker for the season. The Titans will now have to live or die by the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Just a few seasons ago, Buffalo awarded Fitzpatrick with a huge contract, but it seems like as soon as he signed the dotted line, he forgot how to throw to the right team. If Tennessee will find a way to win this game and gain some ground on Indy within the division race, they will need a run game. Honestly, the run game is key. Chris Johnson will need to return to his old ways and make some plays to take some pressure off the Titans passing game. The Titans are ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing, but their leading rusher, Johnson, only has 2 touchdowns in the run game...the same amount as QB Jake Locker. Tennessee MUST improve on this to have a chance to not only compete Thursday night, but to compete the rest of the season. Tennessee's defense is legit. They rank 8th against the pass which could very well play into their favor this week. If the Titans can force Luck to make some ill advised throws, I can see this game being very interesting.
Bob's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a tough pick. It amazes me that Indianapolis is only a 2.5 point favorite against a team that is not only less talented, but just lost their starting quarterback. Something doesn't add up with this line and the 78% of action on the Colts shows that. I don't like that at all. The Colts were exposed this past Sunday and I am not so sure they are as good as we think they are. I like the Tennessee pass defense a lot in this game. I have also learned to never underestimate a home underdog in the NFL...especially at night. The Titans are going to win this game, straight up. Not only am I going to jump on the Titans plus the points, but I will also make a play on the under. This game will stay well below the 42 points. Tennessee wins this thing 20-16.
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