Indianapolis Colts (0-7 SU 2-5 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-3 SU 2-4 ATS), Week 8 NFL Football, LP Field, Nashville, TN, 1 PM ET Sunday October 30, 2011 on FOX
by Jason Green, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ind +9.5/TEN -9.5
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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To say that both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans are struggling is a little bit of an understatement, as Indy has yet to win this season and was embarrassed in their last game and the Titans have lost 2 in a row and were smoked last week.
You think the Colt miss Peyton Manning? Well, maybe a little since the Colts only rank 27th in the league in passing yards per game. Even with their rushing offense deficiencies and their issues on defense Manning carried the Colts to the playoffs the last several years, but without him under center they have looked terrible.
In their last games the Colts gave up the most points in a game in almost 4 decades in a 62-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints while the Titans did not fare much better getting crushed 41-7, at home no less, by the Houston Texans.
Titans' RB Chris Johnson has not earned his money since signing a huge contract in the off-season averaging only 2.9 yards per carry this season and the Titans have the worst rushing offense in the league. However, if there was any game to get back on track it is this one facing a Colts' defense that ranks 31st in the league. Johnson will look like himself this Sunday at home and have a great game facing the weak Indy run defense.
The Colts have to be happy that Drew Brees is in their rear view mirror, as he torched their 15th ranked secondary last week to the tune of 325 passing yards with 5 TD and 0 INT and he only had 4 incomplete passes. Matt Hasselbeck has 3 picks in his last 2 games, but he will play well against the Colts' secondary and not have to do much since Johnson will get a ton of carries.
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Colts' QB Curtis Painter will likely get the start again under center even though he was only 9/17 for 67 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT in the blowout loss to the Saints. After the 55-point loss to New Orleans he stated, "We just didn't play near well enough." Wow, great call.
Indy's WR's of Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon will get their chances this week facing a Tennessee pass defense that gave up nearly 300 passing yards to the Texans last week and ranks 24th in the league. I think Painter will have a decent game, but not a great one.
Once again, the Colts have a weak rushing offense, as they rank 25th in the league in rushing yards per game and neither RB Delone Carter or RB Joseph Addai have over 260 rushing yards this season. The Titans' run defense ranks 24th in the league and they gave up a whopping 222 rushing yards to the Texans, but they will play better in this home game since Carter and Addai are struggling.
The Colts have forced 8 fumbles this season and it is key for them to create some turnovers, but I do not see that happening this Sunday.
Betting Trends
Indianapolis is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games, e 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and has an Over record of 6-0 in their last 6 games.
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games facing a team with a losing record, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
The Colts have only covered the spread in one of their last 5 games against the Titans in Tennessee.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Titans have struggled, big time in their last 2 games, but there is no better team to face than the Colts, who have been terrible on both sides of the ball this season. This one is an easy to call, as the Titans will win and easyily cover the 9.5-point spread.
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