Indianapolis Colts vs. St. Louis Rams Preview and Pick

Indianapolis Colts (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, NFL Week 7, Sunday, October 25, 2009, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Mo., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Colts -13.5/Rams +13.5
Over/Under: 45

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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will take his MVP-type start of the season on the road this week when they travel to St. Louis to take on the winless Rams in the Edward Jones Dome.

So far the Colts are perfect this season and it’s mostly due to the fact that Manning has recovered from the knee injury that hampered him all season. The oldest Manning has already thrown for 1,645 yards and 12 touchdowns while hitting on a ridiculous 73 percent of his passes, and that’s only through five games.

Add in the fact that the Colts are coming off of their bye week and what you get is a recipe for this game to get ugly real quick.

The Rams are still winless this season at 0-6, but they have shown some signs of improvement each week including last week when they nearly sprung an upset of Jacksonville on the road. Kicker Josh Brown drilled a 27-yard field goal with four seconds remaining in the game to put it into overtime, but the Jags rallied in the extra period and won it when Josh Scobee kicked a 36-yarder for the win.

The week before the Rams outgained the undefeated Vikings 400-to-377, but they went 0-for-4 in the red zone and 0-for-2 on the goal line to seal their fate in a 38-10 loss that wasn’t nearly as lopsided as it looked.

But the Rams week-to-week improvement seems to falling of deaf ears in Las Vegas, as oddsmakers have installed the Colts as huge 13-point favorites on the road. The public isn’t drinking the Rams Kool-aid either, as most of the early money has come in on Indy which has caused a few offshore sportsbooks to move the point spread up to 13.5 or even a full two-touchdown 14 points at books like BoDog, 5Dimes and BetPhoenix.

The over/under total opened at 46 and has dropped the hook down to 45.5 and most of the books. A few of them are down to 45, so shop around for the extra point.

What else really needs to be said about the Colts offense other than the fact that’s it’s clearly Manning’s team. You can change head coaches, take away All-Pro running backs (Edgerin James) and receivers (Marvin Harrison) and even put a few new big uglies in front of him and he still runs the NFL’s top-rated passing offense (326 ypg) and a very potent scoring machine (27.4 ppg – 5th).

The same cannot be said for the new look Rams on offense. The Rams struggle to move the ball (281.3 ypg – 27th) and consequently they are the NFL’s worst scoring offense at just 9 points per game. They did score a season-high 20 points last week against the Jags, so as mentioned, they seem to be making adjustments but it may take a few more weeks before it translates into a victory.

The big problem for the Rams is that their defense isn’t much better than their offense. As a unit the Rams are 30th in yards allowed (384.5), which translates into another 30th ranking in points allowed at 28.2 per game. Although it doesn’t help that the play an extra 15 to 20 snaps a game because their offense is three-and-out a large majority of the time.

The Colts defense is still a little susceptible to the running game (103.2 ypg – 14th), but they have made major strides in that area and it has translated directly to their success because they boast the league’s 7th-ranked defense (295.6 ypg) and the 2nd-ranked scoring defense at just 14.2 points allowed per game. Now, keep in mind that the Arizona Cardinals are the best offense they’ve faced all season (others including Tennessee, Seattle, Miami and Jacksonville), but it’s still somewhat impressive.

Plus, the Colts might get their defensive leader back this week as word out of Indy has it that All-Pro safety Bob Sanders has practiced all week and could suit up as see his first action of the season on Sunday. Sanders has yet to play this season since having knee surgery in the offseason.

The Colts will be without a significant piece of the puzzle on Sunday though, as kicker Adam Vinatieri had his knee fixed during the bye week and will be out for 4-to-6 weeks. The Colts signed veteran Matt Stover to fill in while he’s gone, so there shouldn’t be too much drop off in production.

The last time these two teams met in the regular season was back in 2005, and the numbers from that game are eerily similar to this weekend’s game. The Colts won the game 45-28, but they were ironically 13.5-point favorites. The Colts needed a big rally in the game too, as the Rams jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter before Manning led the Colts to the big comeback.

As a whole though it’s the Rams that hold the edge in the head-to- head series (dating back to 1986), with a 3-2 SU record and a 3-1-1 ATS record as well. Three of the five games ended over the total too.

Badger’s Pick: I’m usually never one to wager on NFL games with huge double-digit point spreads, but the factors going into this game certainly make it look like this one could be an exception. But my rule is a rule, and changing my style would only make me second-guess myself later. So I’m on the over in this game, hoping Peyton and the Colts go over the number on their own. Take the over of 45.

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