Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS), Week 3 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, September 25, 2011, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. TV: CBS
by Ryno, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jax +3.5/CAR -3.5
Over/Under Total: 43
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This would be a fun matchup back in 1995 when these two teams were brand new NFL franchises. Seventeen years ago, this matchup wouldn't even have been possible. In 1996, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers were both one game away from the Super Bowl. But the Jaguars lost to the New England Patriots and the Panthers fell to the Green Bay Packers. But those were the days of Mark Brunell, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Kerry Collins, Tim Biakabutuka, and whatever other random names we can think of circa 1996.
These days, the names include Blaine Gabbert, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith. The game doesn't quite have the same excitement it would have had in 1995 or 1996, but there is one exciting storyline in this matchup: two rookie quarterbacks going at it. Gabbert makes his first start of his career for the Jags, while Newton makes his third start for the Panthers.
Newton has gotten off to a historic and unprecedented start to his career for the Panthers. Newton was the first player ever to throw for over 400 yards in his first game, the first player to ever throw for over 400 yards in each of his first two starts, and he broke the rookie record for most passing yards in a game in Week 2, eclipsing Matthew Stafford's record.
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Newton has 854 passing yards in two games, although he has three passing touchdowns and four interceptions. He also leads the team in rushing with 71 rush yards and two rushing touchdowns. With a rookie quarterback and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, one would have thought the Panthers would be a running team this year. Not the case at all. Williams has done nothing. Stewart has done nothing. And the Panthers have only handed the ball off 30 times in two games. Instead, five different Panthers receivers each have over 100 receiving yards through two games. Leading the way is the rejuvenated Steve Smith, who has 14 receptions for 334 yards and two touchdowns.
Can the Jaguars stop Newton and the Panthers passing attack? The Jaguars do have three interceptions and eight pass deflections, so they are doing a solid job defending the pass thus far. They have also done a nice job limiting Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene on the ground. Defense has not really been their problem. They more or less won with defense in Week 1 over the Titans.
The problem has been their offense. The Jaguars have scored just 19 points combined in two games. They have already switched quarterbacks, swapping Luke McCown with the rookie Gabbert. Maurice Jones-Drew is basically the entire Jaguars offense at this point. He has 185 rushing yards and a touchdown through two games.
The only way the Jaguars score some points against the Panthers, who don't necessarily have a great defense, is to move the ball on the ground. Jones-Drew has to dominate and make it simple for Gabbert. If Gabbert has to win the game himself, it's not going to happen. If he only has to make 2nd-and-5 or 3rd-and-2-type plays, then the Jaguars may be able to squeeze out enough offense to get a win.
The Jaguars have to focus on stopping Newton both through the air and on the ground. If they can get pressure on him and force him to make some bad decisions, the Jaguars may be able to come up with some turnovers. Until the Panthers prove that they will make an effort to give the ball to Williams and Stewart consistently, then the Jags don't really have to worry about the Panthers running attack. The Jags may need to double Steve Smith and force other receivers to make plays. The Jags can't afford to allow Newton and Smith to hook up for some long passing plays in man-to-man coverage.
The Jaguars barely covered by a point in Week 1 and didn't even come close to covering in Week 2. The Panthers are 0-2 but played both the Cardinals and Packers close, losing to both by just a touchdown. They were able to squeak out a cover in both games.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cam Newton gets his first NFL win. Take the Panthers minus the points.
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