Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 6 NFL, Sunday, October 16, 2011, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa. TV: CBS
by Ryno, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jax +12.5/Pit -12.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Bet the Jags/Steelers game using your credit card at an online sportsbook that WILL get it to work for deposits and that offers generous sign-up bonuses: BetOnline.
After a shaky start to the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers appear back on track with a dominating 38-17 win last week at home over the Tennessee Titans. Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes and the Steelers looked like a typical Steelers team, not the team that got out to a rocky 2-2 start. And the Steelers' win came without the services of starting running back Rashard Mendenhall, who sat the game out with an injury but should be back for this weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are headed in the opposite direction. After starting the season with a 16-14 win over the Titans, they've went south ever since. After a loss in Week 2, they replaced starting quarterback Luke McCown with rookie Blaine Gabbert. Since then, the Jags have lost three more games, the last two at home, to the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals loss was particularly rough as the Jags had a 20-16 lead midway through the fourth quarter before blowing it in the final two minutes.
After an embarrassing 35-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, the Steelers rebounded with an emphatic 24-0 win over the Seattle Seahawks. Then, they squeaked by the Indianapolis Colts for a three-point victory before losing a close battle with the Houston Texans. Then, the Steelers blew out the Titans last week. The Steelers are 2-0 at home this season with their best two performances. At home once again this week, you have to like their chances to repeat what they did in Pittsburgh to the Seahawks and Titans.
Even without Mendenhall, the Steelers still managed to run the ball effectively for 174 yards on the ground with the likes of Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Those numbers are curious since Mendenhall has struggled in the first four games of the season with just 173 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Roethlisberger had been a bit erratic prior to Sunday's game but he had his 2011 coming out party with five touchdown passes. He now has 1,376 passing yards, eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Mike Wallace has been terrific as a receiver with 31 receptions for 536 yards and three touchdowns.
BET SMART! STOP LAYING -110 ODDS! YOU CAN LAY -105 AND SAVE BIG BUCKS AT 5DIMES
Gabbert has started the last three games and has a total of 608 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Jags rely heavily on their run game with Maurice Jones-Drew, who has 476 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Gabbert's top targets through the air are Mike Thomas and Jason Hill.
This game will be simple. If the Steelers stop the run and don't turn the ball over, they win. It's as simple as that. The Jags don't win very often when Jones-Drew doesn't run the ball effectively. The Steelers are a much better team overall than the Jags and are at home, so all they need to do is not make mistakes in order to win.
Jones-Drew has had at least 84 rushing yards and has averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in each of the Jaguars' last nine wins, dating back to last season (all of their wins this year and last year). In those nine wins, he has 1,036 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown.
The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record, 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, 0-6 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Jaguars and Steelers.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I don't really understand this spread. I expect this game to be a complete blowout with Pittsburgh coming out on the good end of the stick. I'm not an advocate of laying double digits, but I'm betting the Steelers here.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.