Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Preview and Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS), Week 8 NFL, 4:05 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 1, 2009, LP Field, Nashville, Tenn., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Jaguars +3/Titans -3
Over/Under: 44.5

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The winless Tennessee Titans will try and earn back some respect on what is already a lost season this Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in an afternoon tilt at LP Field in Nashville.

Both teams spent their bye week last week licking their wounds and pouring over the game tape to try and figure out what is going on with the season.

For the Titans, it was perhaps the longest two weeks of their lives because the last time they stepped between the lines they got their asses handed to them in a 59-0 thrashing at New England.

Add into the brew that head coach Jeff Fisher stoked the flames during the bye week by wearing a Peyton Manning jersey to a charity event then got on the mic to say “he wanted to feel like a winner.” Even team owner Bud Adams couldn’t keep his yap shut, saying that he would like to see backup quarterback Vince Young get a start over the struggling Kerry Collins this week. Add it all up and you’ve got mass chaos in Nashville these days.

In Jacksonville, the Jags are trying to figure out which team is going to show up week to week, the one that nearly lost at home to the Rams the week before the bye (a 23-20 OT win) or the one that went on the road the week before and destroyed the Seahawks, 41-0.

One of the Jaguars three wins this season came against the Titans already, a 37-17 victory at home back in week three, so they will be looking for a similar effort this week and not the effort they displayed last time out in nearly blowing it against the winless Rams.

In a huge surprise to many, oddsmakers actually opened the game with the winless Titans as 3-point favorites at home, even though most bettors have no clue why or how they can be favored. The betting public hasn’t done anything to make the number move at all either, as most sportsbooks still list the Titans as 3-point favorites. But that’s likely more of a no-confidence vote toward the Jekyll-and-Hyde Jaguars then it is faith in the Titans to cover the point spread.

The over/under total opened at 43.5 and has steadily climbed during early betting up to its current number of 44.5. There are even a few offshore sportsbooks offering a 45 total, so shop for the number you want.

Offensively this game could turn into another 50-point plus shootout, but not because either team is potent on offense. No, this game features two pathetic defenses that just aren’t good enough week to week to get the job done.

The Titans defense is a shell of its former self. What once was a great secondary is now the league’s worst, yes, 32nd-ranked unit allowing 310.7 yards per game. Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard threw for 305 yards against them a few weeks ago, so even with the Jags no-name receiving core they still have enough to burn the Titans secondary. However, both corners Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper are listed as questionable this week so maybe help is on the way.

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The Titans defense is also dead last in points allowed with a 33- points per game average.

Jacksonville’s defense isn’t quite that bad, but the unit is only ranked 23rd overall (360.8 ypg) and they too give up major chunks of yards through the air with the 31st-ranked pass defense at 262 yards per game. The Jags best corner, Rashean Mathis, broke his finger in practice this week and is listed as doubtful, so the weak unit will likely be even weaken come Sunday.

Tennessee’s strength on offense is their running game with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but the last time these two played the Jags had a 27-3 lead at half and the two-headed monster never got a chance to get the rock. If the Titans have any chance the MUST keep the ball and keep the clock rolling with a steady diet of Johnson and White.

The Jaguars will likely throw the ball to set up the running game of Maurice Jones-Drew this week, because even though the Titans defense is bad they still do a solid job of stopping the run (95 ypg – 9th).

Tennessee swept the season series last year en route to their 13-3 season, so the Jaguars will be looking to complete the same task this season on Sunday. All told, the head-to-head series between this two is even with both teams at 5-5 SU over the past 10 games dating back to 2004.

Jacksonville won at LP Field in 2007, 28-13, and in 2005, 31-28, so there’s no real homefield advantage to speak of in this series really. That fact is proven further when you see that the Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at LP Field.

The Titans hold a slight 6-4 ATS edge in the series, including covering in four of the last six games. The over bet also holds a slight 6-4 edge in the series as well over the same 10-game span.

The underdog seems to enjoy this matchup since they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meeting, including earlier this year when the Jags were 3-point dogs at home. Now they’re 3-point dogs on the road, so guess where most of the money will be on Sunday.

Badger’s Pick: This game is a bettor’s nightmare. Jacksonville just doesn’t cover (4-9 ATS in their last 13 games), and what in the hell has happened to the Titans? If you have to wager on this one make it small one on the over of 44.5 in hopes that the two horrible defenses fail to show up again.

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