Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NFL Week 12
November 27th 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: New Era Field Buffalo, NY
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bills -7.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
Well, the Jags have lost five straight, but there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. In their last three games they have not lost by more than a TD and their defense has not been that bad. Still, they only have two wins on the season and they do not rank in the top 25 in the league in rushing yards per game or points per game. Oh yeah, they do rank 25th in opponents’ points per game.
The Bills snapped their 3-game losing streak in their last game and trailing the 8-2 Patriots in the AFC East they need to end the season well to get a Wild Card. Their defense, which ranks a respectable tied for 12th in the league in opponents’ points allowed, was torched in their 3-game skid before playing well on that side of the ball in their last game a 16-12 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
The big match up in this game may be Buffalo, who ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game, rushing TD’s, and yards per rush facing a Jax run defense that only ranks 23rd in the league. In the Bills win over the Bengals in their last game they rushed for 183 yards with Mike Gillislee and LeSean McCoy combining for 105 of them. The Jags have had their issues against the run and while Detroit does not have a good ground game Jax stuffed them in their last game holding them to 14 rushing yards.
Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor has been decent this season and in the win over Cincy he passed for 166 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT and also rushed for 39 yards. He does not have a great WR corps and in the last 4 games he has only passed for 2 TD. WR Sammy Watkins was recently taken off IR, but it is unlikely he is added to the roster and active for this game. Jacksonville does rank a solid 5th in the league in pass defense, but they did give up 262 yards through the air in the loss to the Lions.
Blake Bortles has not played well this season and while his numbers are not bad he is making big mistakes and he has thrown for 4 INT in the last 3 games. In the loss to the Lions he passed for over 200 yards with 2 TD, but was also picked off twice. He has a decent, at best, WR corps and he could use a good game to boost his confidence. He will be up against a Buffalo pass defense that ranks 11th in the league.
In their loss to the Lions the Jags only rushed for 83 yards and the lead rusher was Chris Ivory, who only had 39 yards on the ground averaging a paltry 2.3 yards per carry. How bad is the Jax rushing offense. Besides only ranking 26th in the league averaging 87.6 yards per game their lead rusher is Chris Ivory, who only has 306 rushing yards. Maybe they can get it going facing a Buffalo run defense that only ranks 20th in the league.
One thing you can say about the Jags is that they are consistent, as this season they are 1-4 at home and 1-4 on the road. They are up against a Buffalo team that is 2-2 at home.
Jacksonville is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. On the other side of the coin the Bills are a solid 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
The Bills finally played some defense in their last game, which is why they snapped their losing streak. They may not blow out the Jags, but in their house and with their rushing attack they will win and cover the spread.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Bills -7.5
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