Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Week 9
November 6th 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Over/Under Total: 46
Many picked the Jaguars to be a surprise team this season, but, surprise, they still are pretty bad. Head coach Gus Bradley is on the hot season and the Jags have lost their last 2 games where they gave up at least 33 points in each. They have struggled on both sides of the ball so far on the season and they rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, tied for 23rd in points per game, and tied for 26th in scoring defense.
While the Jags are struggling and the Chiefs have won 3 in a row and they are in the AFC West race only ½ game back of the Raiders and Broncos. They really dodged a bullet in their last game when Alex Smith went out, which what appeared to be a concussion. However, he did not suffer one and while he is still listed as questionable for this game he should get the call under center.
Kansas City only ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per game and rushing yards per game, but their D ranks 8th giving up an average of 19.6 ppg. In their 3-game win streak they have given up fewer than 15 points and the only game they did not they gave up 21 points to A Saints’ team with Drew Brees and a dynamic offense.
Smith is playing like his usual Chiefs’ self this season not putting up big numbers, but being solid in managing the game well and limiting mistakes. While he does not have a great WR corps and only has 8 TD on the season he only has 2 INT and none in the last 3 games. While Jax ranks a solid 8th in the league defending the pass they gave up 280 passing yards in their last game a 36-22 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
The Jags were smoked on the ground in their loss to the Titans giving up 214 rushing yards. Their run D only ranks 21st in the league. The Chiefs beat the Indianapolis Colts 30-14 in their last game with Nick Foles coming in for Smith and having a good game. Lead RB Spencer Ware did suffer a concussion in the game and if he cannot go Chandler West, who rushed for 52 yards averaging 3.7 yards per carry in the win over Indy, will shoulder most of the workload in the backfield.
Jags’ QB Blake Bortles has been up and down this season and he played pretty good in the loss to the Titans going for 370 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. Still, he was 2 for 8 on passes longer than 15 yards and he has 9 INT this season. He will be up against a KC pass defense that ranks 12th in the league and held Andrew Luck to 210 yards in the win last week.
The Jags only rushed for a grand total of 48 yards in their loss to the Titans T.J. Yeldon is their leading rusher for the season and he only has 220 yards. At least he will be facing a KC run defense that has given up the 8th most rushing yards per game.
Kansas City came into their last game tied for the fewest sacks in the league, but they had 6 against the Colts last week. With the lack of production from the Jax rushing offense if Bortles does not have time in the pocket he will be in trouble.
While the Jags are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games the Chiefs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. KC has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games facing Jacksonville.
I have to go with the Chiefs in this one even almost giving up 10 points. Jax is in trouble on both sides of the ball and facing a steady KC team looking for their 4th straight win that is not good. The Chiefs will easily win this game and cover the spread.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5
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