Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots Preview and Pick

2008 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) +13, 48.5 O/U at New England Patriots (16-0) -13, 48.5 O/U, Gillette Stadium, 8 PM Eastern, Saturday
by Badger of Predictem.com

After a one week layoff the New England Patriots put their undefeated season on the line again, this time hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Divisional Playoff game Saturday at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass.

Jacksonville comes into the AFC Divisional playoff game fresh off a narrow, 31-29, victory over Pittsburgh last weekend. The Jags nearly gave up an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter versus the Steelers, only to rally for a late field goal to win the game and set up their chance to be the team to knock the Patriots off their perch.

New England completed their undefeated regular season with a fourth quarter comeback of their own, rallying for a 38-35 victory over the New York Giants in the finale December 29th. The Patriots will need three more wins to reach their ultimate goal … a completely undefeated 19-0 season and another Super Bowl Championship.

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas opened the game with the Patriots as an 11- point favorite, with a 48.5-point total.

New England quarterback Tom Brady was named the NFL’s MVP, and with the season he had its hard to imagine a quarterback ever playing any better than he did in 2007. Brady passed for 4,806 yards and broke the single season touchdown record with 50 touchdown throws, all while being remarkably efficient with the football (68.9 comp. %, 8 INTs, 117.2 passer rating). Receiver Randy Moss (1,493 yds., 23 TDs) is his favorite target, but he is by no means the only weapon at Brady’s disposal. Running back Laurence Maroney gives the Pats a solid running game and the balance allows them to be the NFL’s top- ranked offense in just about every single category (411.2 total ypg – 1st; 295.7 passing ypg – 1st; 36.8 ppg – 1st).

Jacksonville’s offense has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. Quarterback David Garrard was given the starting job just one week before the regular season started (when they cut Byron Leftwich) and he has responded with a solid season overall. Garrard (2,509 yds., 18 TDs) isn’t spectacular, but extremely efficient with the ball (only 3 INTs all season), which has allowed the Jags to finish 7th in total offense (357.4 ypg). It’s no secret the Jags like the run the ball, as they have two of the best running backs to give it to with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both average about five yards a carry, are capable of busting off a game-breaker at any time, and propel the Jags to the 2nd best rushing offense in the NFL (149.2 ypg).

Overshadowed by Brady and the offense, the Patriots defense is also one of the top units in the NFL. Their 3-4 scheme finished 4th overall in yards allowed (288.3 per game) and 4th in points allowed with just a 17.1 per game average. Stopping the run could be considered their biggest weakness, but at just 98.1 yards per game allowed on the ground (9th in NFL) it can hardly be considered weak. Expect strong safety Rodney Harrison to be near the line of scrimmage versus the Jags running game, as the rest of the Pats secondary is more than capable of stopping the pass when tested (190.2 ypg – 6th).

The Jaguars also feature a solid defensive unit, but statistically they fall closer to the middle of the pack in the NFL. They are 12th overall in yards allowed (313.8 per) and 10th in points allowed (19 per), but those numbers don't necessarily reflect how strong the unit is as a whole. However, the Jags secondary is the weakest link (213.8 ypg – 15th) in the defense, which will surely be tested over and over again as Brady dissects them with his aerial attack.

These teams haven’t played one another since a 24-21 New England victory back in 2006. The Patriots also beat the Jaguars in the 2006 playoffs (28-3) before losing to the Steelers in the AFC Championship game (the year Pitt won the Super Bowl). New England covered the number in both of those games, and has covered the spread in five of their eight games head-to-head.

This season the Patriots have been a solid bet for sports bettors, but their 10-6 ATS (5-3 ATS at home) record overall has taken a dive lately as they failed to cover in five of their last six games. But don't be fooled by the slide, as the Pats have had to cover giant numbers in those five losses (average spread of over 19.5 points). The Pats are also an over machine, as you would expect with that offense, going over the total in 11 of their 16 games.

Jacksonville has also been a cash machine for bettors this year, going 11-6 ATS (6-2 ATS on the road). The Jags had covered in seven straight games before resting players in their season-ending loss to Houston and in their first-round game win at Pittsburgh (both ATS losses). Again, betting over the total is also profitable as the Jags went over the number in 12 of their 17 games so far this season.

Other betting trends worth noting: Jacksonville has gone over in 8 straight games as a road underdog, in 10 of their last 11 road games overall, and in seven of their last 8 Saturday games. However, New England has fallen under the total in 8 of their last 10 Saturday games, and in 9 of their last 11 home playoff games.

The public is clearly in love with the Patriots story this season, as the spread has already moved from its opening number of Pats -11 to the Pats -13. The total has stayed at 48.5 though, as most bettors are most likely waiting on the weather before wagering on the total. New England is a whopping -720 on the moneyline, while the Jags are a +650.

Badger’s Pick: The key to this game is the Jaguars running game. Everyone in the stadium, everyone in the world knows that the Jags are going to try and milk the clock and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands with the ground game. I think the Jags can do it, but it still might not matter as Brady can just chuck it up for grabs to Moss every other play. Still, I’m going with the recent trend of the Pats winning but struggling to cover big numbers. Pats win in a 38-28 game, so take the over and the Jag plus the points.

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