Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Houston Texans (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Sunday October 30th, 2011. 1:00PM EST, NFL Week 8
Reliant Stadium Houston, Tex.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jax +9.5/Hou -9.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
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The Jacksonville Jaguars snapped a 5 game losing streak in the biggest way possible last Monday night by upsetting the Baltimore Ravens 12-7. Before taking the Monday Night stage, the Jaguars entered as sizeable underdogs against the Ravens who are possibly among the best teams in the AFC. However, the Jaguars defense delivered a brilliant performance holding the Baltimore offense to just 146 total yards to stun the heavily favored Ravens. This week the Jaguars look to deliver another stunning upset as they take the road against the Houston Texans as sizeable underdogs for the 2nd week in a row.
Houston enters this Sunday's home stand against Jacksonville fresh off a big blowout victory over the Titans last week 41-7. The Texans offense shined last week by racking up over 500 yards of total offense and they will be looking to put together another big performance this Sunday against a solid Jaguars defense. One of the story lines surrounding this Sunday's AFC South showdown is the Texans opportunity to extend their leads in the division. At just 4-3, the Texans have a 1 game advantage over Tennessee and a 2 game advantage over the Jaguars in the division standings. Therefore, if the Texans can put together a 2nd straight victory over an AFC South foe then they could put a strangle hold on the division race as we approach the midway point of the season.
For Houston, they will enter this Sunday's match-up around double digit point favorites despite the Jaguars big victory last week. The reason the line was released in heavy favor of the Texans is because their offense has been very strong this year compared to the Jacksonville offense that simply cannot score points. In both of the Jaguars two wins this season, they have not scored more than 16 points in any of those games. In fact, the Jaguars offense has only reached the 20 point plateau once all season long. Despite solid play from the Jaguars defense, the offense has not been able to score the points needed to be competitive for most of the year.
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Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 252 total yards per game and the offense has not shown any signs of life. Starting QB Blaine Gabbert is the 3rd quarterback to start this season as problems behind center seem to be an everlasting issue. In last week's win, Gabbert completed just 9 of 20 passing for 93 yards. Due to those quarterback issues; the Jaguars have failed to have any type of success in the passing game. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew is the offenses best weapon, but defenses know that and put extra focus on stopping the run. Still, Jones-Drew has been rather solid racking up 677 yards on the season while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. This week expect the Jaguars to stick to Jones-Drew in the running game while hoping for another big performance from their defense as they look to score another big time win.
For the Texans, if they continue to put up big points on the scoreboard it would be hard to imagine Jacksonville's offense hanging close. However, the Texans offense will have to find a way to overcome that tough Jacksonville defense as well. QB Matt Schaub has played pretty solid this season by completing 61.2% passing for 1,893 yards with 12 scores and 5 picks on the year. Despite a slow start to the year, WR Andre Johnson gives a big play threat on the outside to opposing defense. However, tight end Owen Daniels actually leads the team in receiving with 352 receiving yards on the year. It is easy to say the Texans have the talent to move the ball through the air against nearly any defense and most perceive the Houston offense as a heavily favored passing team.
However, the Texans main success this season can be contributed to their outstanding rushing unit. Everyone knew Texans running back Arian Foster was one of the better backs in the league after posting huge numbers in 2010 with over 1,600 rushing yards. However, when Foster missed time earlier this season backup tailback Ben Tate stepped up in a big way to keep the ground game moving. In fact, Tate played so well he continued to get touches even with Foster returned healthy to the lineup.
Last week, both backs eclipsed the 100 yard mark in Houston's blowout over Tennessee. Together both backs have helped Houston maintain the 5th best rushing unit in the NFL averaging 139 yards per game. If both backs continue to run well, it will only open things up even more for that talented passing offense to strike down the field. This week it will be important that Houston establishes the running game against a stingy Jacksonville defense as they look to continue their dominance over their fellow AFC South rivals.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Jaguars defense can hold ground against teams that rely on the run on offense. However, this Texans team can move the ball in the air just as well as they can on the ground. Therefore, I think this Houston offense will be too difficult to overcome and they pull away late while possibly winning big before it's over. Take Houston -9.5.
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