New York Jets (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS), Week 13 NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST, Thursday Night Football, December 3, 2009, NEUTRAL FIELD ALERT: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. TV: NFL Network
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jets -3/Bills +3
Over/Under: 37
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The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills both have had an up-and-down season. The Patriots are the cream of the crop in the AFC East, but the Bills, Jets and Dolphins are all fighting it out for second place and a remote chance at a playoff berth. The Jets need this win to still have a realistic chance at reaching the playoffs, but the Bills are coming off an impressive victory over the Dolphins in which they dominated the second half.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick having replaced the ineffective Trent Edwards at quarterback and Dick Jauron no longer the head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are playing better football. They lost by three points in Jacksonville two weeks ago and then won 31-14 over the Dolphins on Sunday. The theme in the last two games has been Terrell Owens. After struggling for the first nine games of the season, he had 197 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars and 96 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. The Bills were able to beat the Dolphins with defense. Buffalo reeled in four interceptions. Both teams ran the ball well, but the turnovers were the difference. Down 14-7 in the fourth quarter, the Bills outscored the Dolphins 24-0. Fred Jackson ran in two touchdowns, Owens caught a 51-yard touchdown pass from Fitzpatrick, and Ryan Lindell kicked a 56-yard field goal.
Fitzpatrick isn't putting up great statistics, but he's making the big plays when he has to. He has 905 passing yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has been effective with his legs, running for a 31-yard touchdown against the Dolphins. With Marshawn Lynch having been suspended at the beginning of the season and now being limited due to a shoulder injury, Fred Jackson has really been the featured running back all season long. Jackson has 601 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Owens now has 40 receptions for 659 yards and three touchdowns.
Since starting the season 3-0, including a win over the Patriots, the Jets lost six of their next seven games to fall to 4-6. Mark Sanchez looked like a young prodigy at quarterback in his first three games, but he has looked like anything but that since then. The Jets did bounce back with a 17-6 win over the Panthers on Sunday, but that was because of their defense. Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes each had two interceptions and Revis returned one of them for a touchdown. Thomas Jones ran for 75 yards and a touchdown. Sanchez completed 13-of-17 passes for 154 yards but he did throw an interception.
Sanchez has thrown 17 interceptions to go along with his 10 touchdown passes and 1,945 yards. Jones has 959 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller are the leading receivers for the Jets. The three of them have combined for 93 receptions for 1,368 yards and seven touchdowns.
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The Bills don't have a very good offense. The Bills have been playing better lately but they are still turning the ball over. Fitzpatrick has thrown three interceptions in the last two games. The Jets have a terrific defense, one that reemerged against the Panthers. If the Bills can't even score points against the weaker defenses, it's really going to be tough against the Jets. It's safe to bank on at least one interception for Revis or Rhodes. Owens has been involved more the last two weeks, but now he has to go against arguably the best cornerback in the league. The Bills can't commit any turnovers in this game. They have to win the turnover battle and focus on shutting down Jones and the Jets running attack. The Bills pass defense will do just fine against Sanchez and the Jets receivers, but they have to limit Jones' yards.
The Bills are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The total has gone under in five of Buffalo's last six games. The Jets are 2-6 ATS and SU in their last eight games. They are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Bills.
Ryno's Pick: The Jets need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, so they should come out focused and playing hard in this one. Their defense was dominant against the Panthers and it will have to do the same against a weak Bills offense. The Jets offense is not reliable, so the defense has to dominate for them to win. As long as Sanchez doesn't try to force anything and the Jets can establish a solid running attack, they should win a low-scoring defensive battle. Take the Jets -3.
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