New York Jets (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-0 SU,
10-3-1 ATS), NFL Week 16, 4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, December 27, 2009, Lucas Oil
Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jets +5.5/Colts -5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Bet this game using your Visa card at the web's most trusted online sportsbook: Bodog.
The Indianapolis Colts will put their perfect record on the line for the last time this season in front of the home crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday, when they welcome the New York Jets to town for a crucial AFC tussle.
Indy survived a scare from the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday on the NFL Network, scoring the only touchdown in the fourth quarter to prevail, 35-31. The Jaguars played about as good a game as you can play against Peyton Manning, keeping him off the field as much as possible (11 minute time of possession edge), but it still didn’t matter.
Now, the Colts have added focus on them for this game because the New Orleans Saints lost last week, making Indy is the lone undefeated team with a chance to defy the odds and run the table for a full 16- game schedule.
The Jets are one of six teams in the AFC with a 7-7 record that are still clinging to an outside chance at one of the final two wildcard spots, so it’s the very definition of must-win for Rex Ryan and his crew this week. They shot themselves in the foot last week when they let a win slip out of their grasp, allowing Atlanta to score a touchdown in the final seconds to steal a 10-7 victory, so we’ll see how the young Jets respond with a chance to knock off the kings of the AFC.
There are still plenty of bettors with questions about how motivated the Colts are about trying to stay perfect this season. Oddsmakers opened the game with the Colts at 7-point favorites, but with the early steam at the window all coming in on the Jets, the line has dropped all the way down to Colts minus -5.5 or -5 at most sportsbooks. So clearly, there are plenty of skeptics still lurking in the back shadows of the casino.
The over/under total opened at 41 and has only dropped the hook to 40.5 at a majority of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web.
If you don’t know about Manning and the high-powered Colts offense by now, may I suggest you cash out your account now or go play hold em’ in the poker room.
Manning is the clear favorite right now for MVP in the league, throwing for 4,200 yards and 33 touchdowns with a 68.6 completion percentage to boot. The only chink in the Colts armor is the fact that they rely on Manning so much for their offense, and the extra workload has translated into 15 interceptions.
Across the field, the Jets and their rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez have gone through the typical ups and downs you’d expect. At times it has been ugly (12 TD/20 INT), but at least he has Thomas Jones the league’s top-rated running attack (164.1 ypg) to ease the pressure on the rook from USC.
But that’s the problem as well, since the Jets have one of the leagues worst passing attacks (159 ypg- 30th) Sanchez faces an eight- man box on just about every play and the Jets offense has had issues taking advantage of it on the perimeter.
This could be the week that the Colts fall though because the Jets have thee best shutdown corner in the game right now in Darrelle Revis, who will likely shadow Reggie Wayne all game, as well as the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense (159.6 ypg). If the Jets start to get some pressure and knock Manning around a little in the pocket, don’t be surprised if Colts coach Jim Caldwell gets conservative and protects his star for a hopeful Super Bowl run.
It’s hard to tell exactly what, or who, the Colts will be playing on defense since they listed 27 players on their injury report this week. All of them are listed as questionable or probable, but when starters like Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, Clint Session, Kelvin Hayden and Melvin Bullitt start showing up on the report, it does make you question how long they’ll be on the field if they truly are dinged up.
It’s been three years since these two AFC teams have met between the stripes, with the Colts winning that last game back in 2006 in New York by a narrow, 31-28, score. Dating back to 1999, the Colts hold a slim 6-3 SU edge in the series. But the Jets have covered the point spread in three of the last four meetings, including that game in ’06 as 7.5-point underdogs.
Fans of the Colts should enjoy the betting trends for this game. Not only are the Colts 5-0-1 in their last six games overall, but the home team is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Jets going 1-3-1 ATS in their last five trips to Indianapolis.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Badger’s Pick: Once again, without inside knowledge of who the Colts will be playing and for how long, it is a risky proposition to pick Indy even though I think they will cover the number. The same explanation/excuse can be used on the total as well. With 15 other games on the docket, you’d be better suited to watching this one and focusing your wagering on those. But if you must, take the under of 40.5 and hope Rex Ryan, Revis and the Jets defense can limit Manning’s passing game.
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