New York Jets (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NFL Week 9
Date/Time: Sunday, November 6, 2016 at 1:00PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS, DTV: 707
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:NYJ +4/MIA -4
Over/Under Total: 44
The Miami Dolphins are coming off their Bye Week, which is a shame considering prior to it they had a ton of momentum thanks to RB Jay Ajayi’s back-to-back 200+ yard games. Just like that the Dolphins went from 1-4 to 3-4 and find themselves back in the AFC Playoff race. This week, they host division rival New York Jets, who kept pace in the same race by barely beating the Cleveland Browns last week 31-28.
Entering Week 9, the Dolphins have the 18th-ranked offense averaging 349.6 total yards per game (YPG) and 20.9 points per game (PPG). Ajayi has boosted their rushing game to seventh in the league averaging 120 YPG, while their passing game is 24th averaging 229.6 YPG. Defensively, the Dolphins allow an average of 367 total YPG (231.4 Passing YPG & 135.6 Rushing YPG) and 22.7 PPG, which puts them 20th in the NFL.
As for the Jets, their offense is averaging 340.8 total YPG and 18.8 PPG, which puts the 22nd in the NFL. Their passing game is 23rd averaging 230.6 YPG, while their rushing game is 16th averaging 110.1 YPG. Defensively, the Jets allow an average of 363.1 total YPG (289.1 passing YPG & 74 rushing YPG) and 26 PPG, which puts them 22nd in the league.
Interesting note on the Jets, their consecutive wins have come when their Matt Forte and Bilal Powell tandem has averaged 36 combined touches. Obviously head coach Todd Bowles needs to consider running more.
Chad Holloway's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Dolphins seem to be the hotter team at the moment, but remember the Jets have won the last three matchups by double digits. The Jets just seem to hold over the Dolphins (they lead the all-time series 53-46-1). That said, for me the winner of this game will either be the team can that can best run the ball or shut down their opponents.
I’d love to see Ajayi put up another 200+ game, but that’s not going to happen against the Jets, who are solid against the run. In fact, they’re about twice as good against the run compared to the Dolphins (average of 74 to 135.6 YPG). Given they’re balanced elsewhere (i.e. effectiveness through the air), I like the Jets with the +4 cushion against the spread. As for the O/U, I think the two teams will combine to cover the over (their last three games have been high-scoring affairs).
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