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New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines - Prediction ATS

New York Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00 PM EST
Where: Heinz Field 
TV: Direct TV
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com

Point Spread:NYJ +7/Pitt -7
Over/Under Total:48 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a blowout win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, after a very underwhelming effort in Philadelphia two weeks ago. There was a huge line move in that KC game as the public kept pounding the Chiefs. The line opened up at Pittsburgh -5.5 and the game closed at Pittsburgh -3. I was on the right side in one of my NFL wise guys contests. Keep this in mind. Winning teams off an embarrassing and/or blowout loss usually play much better if they are returning home. This system works well in all sports. The Jets lost 27-17 as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Seahawks. Another pathetic effort after their 8 turnover performance two weeks ago. I don't know what to make of the Jets at this point. Last week was a great spot for them to win and they did not show up.  

Both teams sit at 2-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Steelers are allowing 398.4 yards per game, while the Jets are allowing 355.3 yards per game. Interesting to see that the Steelers are allowing less yards per play than the Jets. Pittsburgh is allowing 6.2 yards per play, while the Jets are allowing 6.5 per play. When looking to bet significant favorites (plus +7 or more) in the NFL, you have to decide if that team is motivated to cover that big spread. These two teams haven't played since 2014, when the Jets won 20-13 as 4.5-point home dogs. Prior to that, the Steelers won and covered three in a row from 2011-2013. Head Coach Mike Tomlin likes going for two, and you would think if successful that benefits the home team. That strategy could also backfire, which has yet to happen this season. The home team is 7-3 ATS, with the Under going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

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Both teams are stout against the run and awful against the Pass. I would expect both teams to spread the other out and run a lot of up-temp sets on offense. The total is 48 points for a reason. This is the highest total in the series, by one point when the teams last met two seasons ago. There are numerous key injuries on both sides of the ball for each team. I really think this will be a higher scoring game than what we seen between these two squads in the past. The league has made it easier to be successful through the air so I see a lot of passing yards once again. If all those passing yards turn into touchdowns, this game will will fly over the total. If the two teams buckle down in the red zone and settle for field goals than their is lesser chance of a high-scoring game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 interceptions in the last two weeks combined. The Jets are last in the league in turnover differential (-10), although takeaways have a way of evening out over the course of 16 games. The Steelers are +1, which in part is why the two teams have completely different won/loss records. The Steelers have numerous injuries on their offense line, while the Jets are really banged up in the secondary. The Steelers are 2-4 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Jets are 3-6 ATS in games on a grass field over the pass three seasons. The Jets have scored just one offensive TD in their last two games. They can't be that bad! Tough game to pick a side. I will lean to the Over. Check the weather forecast as we get closer to game time. Heavy rain and/or windy conditions will make the Over a no play. 

Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Jets vs. Steelers Over 48

I will lean to the Over. Nothing major. Light play.

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