New York Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00 PM EST
Where: Heinz Field
TV: Direct TV
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:NYJ +7/Pitt -7
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a blowout win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, after a very underwhelming effort in Philadelphia two weeks ago. There was a huge line move in that KC game as the public kept pounding the Chiefs. The line opened up at Pittsburgh -5.5 and the game closed at Pittsburgh -3. I was on the right side in one of my NFL wise guys contests. Keep this in mind. Winning teams off an embarrassing and/or blowout loss usually play much better if they are returning home. This system works well in all sports. The Jets lost 27-17 as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Seahawks. Another pathetic effort after their 8 turnover performance two weeks ago. I don't know what to make of the Jets at this point. Last week was a great spot for them to win and they did not show up.
Both teams sit at 2-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Steelers are allowing 398.4 yards per game, while the Jets are allowing 355.3 yards per game. Interesting to see that the Steelers are allowing less yards per play than the Jets. Pittsburgh is allowing 6.2 yards per play, while the Jets are allowing 6.5 per play. When looking to bet significant favorites (plus +7 or more) in the NFL, you have to decide if that team is motivated to cover that big spread. These two teams haven't played since 2014, when the Jets won 20-13 as 4.5-point home dogs. Prior to that, the Steelers won and covered three in a row from 2011-2013. Head Coach Mike Tomlin likes going for two, and you would think if successful that benefits the home team. That strategy could also backfire, which has yet to happen this season. The home team is 7-3 ATS, with the Under going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Both teams are stout against the run and awful against the Pass. I would expect both teams to spread the other out and run a lot of up-temp sets on offense. The total is 48 points for a reason. This is the highest total in the series, by one point when the teams last met two seasons ago. There are numerous key injuries on both sides of the ball for each team. I really think this will be a higher scoring game than what we seen between these two squads in the past. The league has made it easier to be successful through the air so I see a lot of passing yards once again. If all those passing yards turn into touchdowns, this game will will fly over the total. If the two teams buckle down in the red zone and settle for field goals than their is lesser chance of a high-scoring game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 interceptions in the last two weeks combined. The Jets are last in the league in turnover differential (-10), although takeaways have a way of evening out over the course of 16 games. The Steelers are +1, which in part is why the two teams have completely different won/loss records. The Steelers have numerous injuries on their offense line, while the Jets are really banged up in the secondary. The Steelers are 2-4 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Jets are 3-6 ATS in games on a grass field over the pass three seasons. The Jets have scored just one offensive TD in their last two games. They can't be that bad! Tough game to pick a side. I will lean to the Over. Check the weather forecast as we get closer to game time. Heavy rain and/or windy conditions will make the Over a no play.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Jets vs. Steelers Over 48I will lean to the Over. Nothing major. Light play.
Fast payouts, 19 and 20 point teasers, pleasers, 25 team parlays, progressive parlays, live betting, online poker and discounted odds on sides and totals! Find all this and more at the web's BEST bookmaker: 5Dimes!
Need some help with your handicapping? Our NFL betting tips will help the begineer to novice bettor improve their bottom line.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your pick'em league!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2016 NFL Predictions - Badger breaks down each division and gives his picks on which teams he thinks will win the AFC and NFC Conferneces (plus Super Bowl winner prediction).
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 50. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $1000 in free cash!
Bookmaker - Watch the game for a bit THEN make a wager! Yes! You can jump in after the action has started using their awesome live betting feature! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $300 in FREE bonus cash OR take advantage of their enormous 15% bonus up to $2500 in free cash! The best sportsbook for highrollers!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.