Kansas City Chiefs (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS), Week 10 NFL, Investco Field at Mile High, (Natural Grass) Denver Colorado, Sunday, November 14, 4:05 PM Eastern
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds: KC -1/Den +1
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Old AFC West rivals meet for the first time this season when the up-start Kansas City Chiefs invade Mile High to play the disappointing Denver Broncos. This matchup will feature two division rivals heading in opposite directions.
The Denver Broncos have had two weeks to think about their four game losing streak and how to fix it. On Halloween they lost to the 49's as 2-point road dogs. Denver out-gained SF by 59 yards and also had six more First-Downs but still lost the game. The Broncos are 6-2 ITS (in the stats) this season but only have two wins to show for it. Something is missing from this team right now. Maybe the BYE week will help but the Chiefs are coming off a game they should have won.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost their second straight game in OT, as the Raiders pulled off a miracle comeback last Sunday. The Chiefs won the overtime toss but were unable to generate a first down. Jason Campbell threw a 47-yard pass to rookie Jacoby Ford in overtime to set up Janikowski's winning 33-yard field goal that capped Oakland's 23-20 victory. Campbell and Ford hooked up on a 29-yard pass in the closing seconds of regulation to set up Janikowski's tying 41-yard field goal. The Raiders then won it in overtime for their most significant victory since winning the 2002 AFC championship game. Oakland hasn't had a winning record at any time since being 2-1 in 2004 and not this late since '02, the year they won the Super Bowl.
Kansas City is 4-4 ITS (in the stats) but they do a great job on Special Teams and forcing turnovers. The Chiefs have the No. 1 ranked Special Teams units in all of football and are very well coached from top to bottom. They also have the No. 1 ranked rushing offense at nearly 180 yards per game, going against a Broncos' run defense that is ranked last in the league.
This one could get ugly fast. There will be plenty of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones banging over the middle and beating down the Broncos' defense in this game. It could be reminiscent of the Oakland Raiders 59-point shalackling earlier in the season at the expense of the Broncos' defense. I would expect a much better effort from the Broncos' defense with two weeks to prepare. But, how much better can they get? That's the big question.
The Broncos' offense has been high octane when it comes to the passing game. This has made Kyle Orton and the Denver Broncos a one dimensional team. They average a league-low 67.2 yards rushing per game on barely 15 carries. Against the run, the Kansas City Chiefs have been solid. They have given up an average of 97.8 yards per game on the ground, but they looked like they had difficulty with Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders in its overtime loss. The Chiefs have a young secondary that likes to play a lot of bump-and-run coverage. They all can fly but have struggled at times this season. They are allowing 233 yards passing per game and will be tested for sure in this contest.
Last season, both teams split their two games by each scoring 44 points on the other teams field. In the first meeting, KC won 44-24 as 10-point road dogs. In the rematch, Denver won 44-13 as 6-point road chalk.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games. Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City. The Broncos are 17-6 SU and 16-6-1 ATS when playing with a week of rest since 1993. WOW!
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -1.
Tough game. I only lean to KC and this game will not be making my card. This might be a game to just pass on. Denver should play better after their BYE week, but the Chiefs should be fired-up coming off two straight overtime losses. Slight lean to KC.
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