Kansas City Chiefs (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (0-4, 2-2 ATS), Week 5 NFL, Sunday October 9th, 1:00 PM Eastern, Lucas Oil Stadium (Field Turf), Indianapolis Indiana
By Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: KC +1.5/Indy -1.5
Over/Under Total: 39
Bet the Chiefs/Colts game using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL work for depositing: BetOnline.
The Indianapolis Colts look for its first win this season after hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at Lucas Oil Stadium (formerly RCA Dome) this Sunday. Last year, when these two teams played in week five the Colts were 9.5-point favorites. No Peyton Manning and an 0-4 record will effect the line for sure. The Colts actually won and covered by a 19-9 final score.
KC got off the snide winning their first game of the season. They defeated Minnesota 22-17 as 3-point home chalk. Kansas City's defense set the tone early, forcing Minnesota to go three-and-out on its opening possession. Ryan Succop's 40-yard field goal gave Kansas City its first lead all season. The Chiefs run and pass defense came to play on this day. Donovan McNabb finished 18-of-30 for 202 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Adrian Peterson carried the ball 23 times for 80 yards in another underwhelming performance.
It was nothing new for the Colts last Sunday, as they lost the game and lost the stats for the 8th straight game dating back to last season. Indianapolis has been out-gained by 481 yards in their four losses this season. This team is desperate for not only a victory, but actually winning the stats and playing the right way. The Colts have struggled to replace All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. Kerry Collins started the first three games, posting a 65.9 passer rating, and Curtis Painter was under center for Monday's 24-17 loss at Tampa Bay with Collins suffering from concussion-like symptoms. Painter completed 13- of-30 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but he struggled in the fourth quarter, going 4- of-10 for 56 yards while getting sacked three times as the Buccaneers went ahead for good.
BET NFL GAMES AT -105 ODDS INSTEAD OF -110 AT 5DIMES! THIS MOVE WILL SAVE YOU BIG MONEY!
According to my special teams rankings the Kansas City Chiefs check in at No. 24. The Colts are ranked No. 22. This formula of mine calculates kicking, punting, field position, takeaways, giveaways, tackling, and technique/philosophy. Of course, it's still early in the season and these rankings are sure to change. Two thing stand out when I watch the Curtis Painter on tape this year. He has a strong arm but lacks the poise needed to be an above average quarterback. Painter is still learning the game and should get better as he gets more comfortable in his new role.
The Colts have been very tough at home inside that loud dome, going 15-6 straight-up over the last three seasons, and 105-59 SU since 1993. Their big advantage happens when the opposing team has the ball. The home crowd gets so loud that it allows Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to take advantage of the slower offensive lineman, as they rush from the edge. The Colts averaged almost two more sacks per game at home than on the road last year.
Both teams are two of the more banged up teams in the NFL. The Chiefs and Colts have a combined 8 starters from last year on injured reserve, out for the year. The Chiefs have not been the dominant running team of last year. Kansas City is hoping to have better success rushing the ball against the Colts' struggling run defense, which ranks 28th in the league (133.0 yards per game). I think the Chiefs will have success against a make-shift Colts offensive line.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5.
Indianapolis suffered numerous injuries on offense and defense. The Colts will be coming off a short week having played on MNF. The new injuries further weaken a defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed (390.3 per game). The Chiefs have actually won the stats in a game while the Colts have been out-gained in 8 straight. Lean to KC in this one!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.