Kansas City Chiefs (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS) at New York Jets (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Sunday December 11th, 2011. 1:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 14
MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, N.J.
By Jay Horne, NFL Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +9/NYJ -9
Over/Under Total: 36.5
Make KC a +29 underdog by placing them into a 20 point teaser at 5Dimes.
The New York Jets 'fight' to keep their postseason hopes alive continues this week when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at MetLife Stadium. The Jets scored their 2nd straight win with a convincing 34-19 victory over Washington last week. The win moved the Jets to the 7-5 mark on the season and kept them in the thick of the AFC Wildcard picture. Still, the Jets cannot afford any losses and they will be trying to avoid any such defeats against the Chiefs this Sunday.
Kansas City scored an upset on the road in Chicago last week. The Chiefs entered as 8.5 point underdogs on the road against the Bears, but managed to put together an outstanding defensive performance to win outright 10-3. The victory ended a 4 game losing streak for the Chiefs and it was the 2nd straight brilliant performance from the defense. Just a week before the Bears game, the Chiefs nearly pulled off an even bigger upset against the Steelers before falling 13-9. Kansas City currently sits two games back in the AFC West despite a measly 5-7 record. The Chiefs would likely have to win out to make a run at the division crown which seems highly unlikely. Then again if the defense continues to dominate never say never.
Still even with the new found defensive success, the Chiefs have still struggled to put points on the board. In fact, Kansas City has failed to score more than 10 points in 5 straight games. During that stretch, the Chiefs are just 1-4 SU and desperately need to find some answers on the offensive side of the football. In the last 3 games, Kansas City has turned the ball over 8 times. Those turnovers have been the norm since QB Matt Cassell was lost for the season with a hand injury. Backup QB Tyler Palko has thrown just 1 touchdown compared to 6 interceptions and the passing offense simply has not been nearly as effective in Cassell's absence.
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With the lack of a rushing game, the Chiefs two biggest targets on offense are receivers Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston. Breaston racked up over 500 yards receiving in the first 8 games, but has been shut down in recent weeks. Bowe leads the team with 868 receiving yards and has 4 touchdowns on the year. The problem for both receivers has been simply getting the football. Palko has definitely attempted to get both guys the ball, but has not had much success in doing so. The bottom line is the Kansas City defense will only be able to do so much and the rest of the offense starting with Palko has to find a spark.
For the Jets, their offense has finally found a spark over the last two games scoring 62 points combined. QB Mark Sanchez has had a bit of a struggle this season completing 56.5% passing for 2,678 yards with 19 scores and 11 picks. However in the last two games, Sanchez has tossed 5 touchdown passes with just 1 interception. The Jets' offense has not posted huge offensive numbers in terms of yardage over the last two games, but most importantly they are finding ways to score points.
Running back Shonn Greene has become a much bigger focus for the offense in recent weeks. Last Sunday, Greene had a season high 22 carries which resulted in 88 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. This week expect Greene to possibly see even more carries as the Jets attack a rather putrid Kansas City rush defense. In fact, the Chiefs have given up 130.3 yards per game (26th in NFL) on the ground this season. Therefore, keep an eye on Greene and the Jets rushing offense as they go after their 3rd straight win on the year.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think the Jets ability to post points on the board will be the difference here as Kansas City continues to struggle on offense. Take the Jets -9.
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