Kansas City Chiefs (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS), 4:05 p.m. EST, NFL Week 7, Sunday, October 23, 2011, Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, California
by Scotty L, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +4/Oak -4
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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On Sunday afternoon, the Kansas City Chiefs head west to take on the Oakland Raiders in an AFC West matchup. Right now, both teams are looking up at the Chargers in the standings, but either team could pounce at any time. The Raiders have shown a lot of improvement this year, while the Chiefs have bounced back from a rough start, with 2 consecutive wins and 3 straight covers.
With the bye-week, it’s easy to forget how massively the Chiefs have recovered. In getting blown out in their first two weeks, they had the worst start of any defending division champion in history and the situation was dire indeed. Then came a close loss against a home Chargers team to restore a little confidence that manifested in wins against the Vikings and Colts. Hats off to QB Matt Cassel, who after a horrific start is 39-58 for 517 yards with 5 touchdowns and zero picks in his last two games. Top-flight WR Dwayne Bowe is cruising now with consecutive 100-yard games. Despite losing RB Jamaal Charles, they are 6th in rushing yards.
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With the Chiefs enjoying a little wind in their sails, they hope to exploit a Raiders team that had everything going their way, until QB Jason Campbell came up with a broken collarbone that will have him out for a couple months. The Raiders did well by trading for Carson Palmer. Some say he represents an improvement over Campbell. While Palmer has certainly had the more successful career, it remains to see how seamlessly he can slide in there and get with the program. Whatever Campbell’s limitations were, he did have some good mojo going and you hate to disrupt that. In the long run, however, it could be a plus to have Palmer.
It helps to have a running back like Darren McFadden to rely upon while you get your bearings. Expect heavy doses of running while Palmer gets acclimated. Palmer has worked with Raiders head coach Hue Jackson before at USC and in Cincinnati, so he is not completely in the dark. Still, one has to wonder if the Raiders will have to take a small step back before they can move forward with what seems like a promising season, particularly at the sportsbook--with a 5-1 ATS mark.
The Raiders defense is ranked poorly, 28th in total yards and passing yards allowed and 25th in points allowed. It sure seems, however, that they have been more clutch than those numbers suggest. In addition, they have been facing far more potent offenses than a road Kansas City team. It still figures that a rising Chiefs team can put some points on the board against their longtime division rival.
After giving up 41 and 48 points to open the season, the Chiefs “D” has buckled down, allowing only 20, 17, and 24 points in their last 3 contests. While those point outputs were against an off-key Chargers and apparent 2011 doormats Minnesota and Indianapolis, signs have been promising. They are putting some heat on opposing quarterbacks, while getting burnt far less in the secondary. It remains to be seen, but the defending AFC West Chiefs have probably built some character from storming back from the fringe of the abyss. This isn’t exactly the story of Lazarus, but a lot of teams don’t recover from a start like that and the Chiefs have done well to so quickly bounce back and become a team that warrants respect.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Not that one team has an arrow going up and the other has one pointed down, but on this particular week, the conditions seem to favor the Chiefs. Even though they are on the road against a team with momentum, the Chiefs might be in a better spot. Bye-weeks haven’t been kind to teams this year so far, but the Chiefs haven’t lost in about a month, while the Raiders are trying to get a quarterback out of mothballs. The Raiders may very well not lose a step and just pick up where they left off, but the signs point to an off-week. Take the Kansas City Chiefs plus 4 points.
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