Kansas City Chiefs (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Monday, November 12th, 2012, 8:30 p.m. EST
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +12.5/PIT -12.5
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Bet the Chiefs/Steelers game using your Visa card at an online betting site where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus: GTBets.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won three straight and will try and continue their climb up the ladder in the AFC playoff picture when they host the disappointing Kansas City Chiefs at Heinz Field on Monday Night Football.
The Steelers won their third straight with an impressive, 24-20, victory over the New York Giants on the road last weekend. The ole Steel Curtain defense held the Giants to 182 yards of total offense and Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense rallied with 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to beat the defending champs in their own building.
Now Pittsburgh will welcome ESPN's Monday Night crew to Heinz Field in hopes of keeping their momentum going against the Chiefs.
If Kansas City isn't the most disappointing team in the NFL this season, then they're certainly close to it. The Chiefs fell apart (again) in the fourth quarter of their, 31-13, loss at San Diego last Thursday, as the Chargers turned back-to-back Chiefs possessions with a turnover in the fourth quarter into two defensive touchdowns and a 31-6 blowout.
Betting Advice: This may be one of the best things that you ever hear with regards to wagering on sports! Your book is probably charging you -110 when you lay your bets right? Did you know that you can lay only -105? This will save you 5 dollars for every $100 that you try to win. This amounts to MASSIVE savings over the course of the season or better yet, over the years. Make the wise choice to switch to reduced juice betting at BetAnySports today!
But the Steelers will face a desperate team on Monday in the Chiefs. When you cut your high-priced free agent CB Stanford Routt just because, and then head coach Romeo Crennell takes the defensive coordinator duties away from himself just for change sake, you're searching for answers.
But it's all lipstick on a pig if you look at the point spread, because the oddsmakers set the original line with Pittsburgh as 11.5-point favorites. With almost 70 percent of the early money on the Steelers, the number has climbed to minus -12.5 at most online sportsbooks and as high as -13 at some books to stop the run on Pittsburgh.
The over/under total opened at 43 and can still be found at that number at a few properties in Las Vegas, but just about every offshore sportsbook is down to 42.5 and there are a few that are down to 42.
The Chiefs have eliminated a little bit of doubt going into this game by announcing right away on Monday that Brady Quinn still wasn't cleared to play on Monday, so for at least one more week Matt Cassel will be the Chiefs starter and there's no quarterback controversy. But the Chiefs are a run-first offense (149.9 ypg rushing - 3rd in NFL) going against one of the stiffest run defenses in league (Pitt allows 88.6 ypg - 7th), so Cassel will have his hands full no doubt.
The Pittsburgh defense has shown it can cope without safety Troy Polamalu, and the offense has coped with the loss of just about every running back on the roster, but the hits keep coming because this week Ben Roethlisberger will likely have to do without Antonio Brown and Chris Rainey. Ironically both Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall are questionable this week, so don't be surprised if the Steelers try and attack the Chiefs 22nd-ranked run defense (126 ypg) instead of relying on Big Ben to throw it to win.
These two teams did play last year in a bloody-knuckle game in Arrowhead the Steelers walked away with, 13-9, but the Chiefs-Steelers series over the years has been surprisingly even on the field (5-5 SU since 1994). Kansas City has covered in the last two meetings, both times as 10.5-point underdogs in Arrowhead, so the Chiefs are accustomed to big numbers as dogs.
Other than the fact the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two, there really aren't too many betting trends to either follow or fade. The under has a few solid trends (4-0 for KC on MNF; 6-0 for Pitt at home), but over the years the series has gone over the total at a 5-1 clip.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a really tough game to pick, despite the fact that I almost never consider taking double digit favs, especially on MNF. KC has looked pathetic at times this season. Even +12 on a MNF game doesn't excite me. I think the only play here is the UNDER, because it's possible that KC might put up less than 10 points. This isn't really a strong play by any means. In fact, I wouldn't recommend putting anymore than a lunch money bet on it! Good luck!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming in 2015!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.