Kansas City Chiefs (0-2 SU. 0-2 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), 4:05 p.m EST, NFL Week 3, Sunday, September 25, 2011, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +15.5/SD -15.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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On Sunday afternoon, the Kansas City Chiefs make the trip to San Diego to take on their longtime division rivals, the Chargers. Both teams have one win in four games and zero covers. Someone will get off the schneid on Sunday. The Chargers have been unimpressive, but still managed to come back and beat a plucky Vikings team at home and hung in there pretty well against the Patriots in a Sutwo-TD loss this past Sunday. The situation for the Chiefs, however, is far bleaker.
In losing their first two games by a combined score of 89-10, the Chiefs have opened their season in the worst fashion of any defending divisional champion in history. The common perception was that they would perhaps struggle to reclaim their 10-win form from last season. No one thought it would be this bad, though, as the Chiefs have been destroyed—by the Bills and the Lions, two teams not recently known for handing out vicious one-sided beatings.
Their 48-3 drubbing at the hands of Detroit was the Lions’ most lopsided win since the 1950’s. The 41-7 slaughter the week before to the Bills wasn’t much better. To make matters worse, the Chiefs also lost RB Jamaal Charles for the entire season. His 1467 rushing yards with a 6.4 average was a big part of Kansas City’s success last season and his loss certainly doesn’t help their chances or overall morale.
Now they’re going to San Diego to face a team that is looking to right the ship after a revealing loss to New England. Losing to the Patriots on their field is nothing to get hung up on, but the Chargers were shown to be a not-ready-for-primetime team at this point. Then again, this is a typically late-surging team that is probably not overly discouraged by that performance. In fact, the game seemed winnable, but a slew of errors made it too difficult of a task. The Chargers can look back on Sunday and at least know they have what it takes to compete with the class of the conference. Whether they can eliminate the mistakes and allow their talent to speak loudest is another matter entirely.
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Head coach Norv Turner is a guy who likes to have a running game upon which he can depend. With two talented guys like Ryan Mathews and Michael Tolbert to work with, one can’t blame Turner for trying. If only those two guys were more dependable. Watching them try to punch it in four times and give the ball up on downs in the 2ndquarter was troubling and a major turning point in the game. Neither back is particularly known for holding onto the ball. A pair of fumbles and two Rivers interceptions more or less sealed the deal on Sunday. With the Chargers, it’s not enough to merely compare their relative strengths with the other team. You must also account for their tendency to cough up the ball or give up a huge special teams play at the most inopportune of times.
Todd Haley is a good coach and one should hesitate before casting the Chiefs as the doormat of the AFC this year. One would imagine there is some pride left in that locker-room and maybe an AFC West divisional matchup is what they need to get their heads screwed on a little better. They did beat the Chargers in their first game last year as underdogs, so anything is possible. Their second game, however, a 31-0 loss at Qualcomm, might be a better indicator at this point, as we are definitely dealing with a depreciated Chiefs squad.
With RB Thomas Jones and a nice group of playmakers in Dexter McCluster, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Breaston, this group could make some noise if they ever get clicking under QB Matt Cassel, who has not been very good. Managing only one touchdown and a field goal in two games is abysmal. Doesn’t it almost have to get better?
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: One should be rightfully hesitant to lay a big number on the Chargers. They never really seem to ever deliver on a potential home blowout. Norv Turner takes his foot off the gas whenever they have a lead. Their field goal kicker is out for the season, forcing them to rely on a guy coming out of retirement. Big third-down guy Antonio Gates is either hurting or has lost a step.
But what can the Chiefs do about any of this? Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson are hooking up like gangbusters and that looks to continue on Sunday. Look for Mathews and Tolbert to build some confidence, as well. The Chiefs will be struggling to keep it together before halftime, allowing the Chargers to cruise to a cover. Take the Chargers minus 15.5 points.
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