NFL Key Numbers
by Predictem.com Staff
If your betting on NFL football games and serious about winning, you need to be familiar with key numbers and what those numbers are. This article can and will increase your chances of beating the NFL point spread should you decide to implement this advice into your sports handicapping arsenal. Enjoy!
Key numbers are the margins most landed on relative to NFL final scores. By knowing what the key numbers are, you can avoid getting duped into betting a bad line and if your good at reading between the lines, you can actually read which way the oddsmakers want you to bet on the game.
As most already know, "3" is the most common maring of victory in NFL football games. Many games come down to the final minutes and are won by a field goal, as are games that go into overtime. A study was done by a handicapper name Andy Iskoe and he did a study on a 17 year period consisting of around 4000 games to see what the most common final score margins were.
To nobody's surprise, 3 was the most common margin to the tune of 15.1%. It's no surprise that 7 was the second most common margin, as this is how many points a team is awarded for a touchdown plus extra point, but what was a surprise to us is that it comes in more than two times less than the 3, to the tune of 7.1%.
What do you think the next most common margin is? I'd have guessed 4, which is close, but no cigar. The third most common margin was "6," which is somewhat of a surprise. A six point margin happened six percent of the time.
The other two key numbers of note are 10 and 4 which came in at 5.9 and 5.8% respectively.
Now that we've established what key numbers are and which to pay attention to, you may be getting crafty and wondering what would happen if you bought a half point on some of them.
We once read a study that showed that:
Buying Underdogs up from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5 and +9.5 to +10 have all resulted in profits. On the flipside, buying favs down from -2.5 to -2, -3 to -2.5, -3.5 to -3 and -10.5 down to -10 have all resulted in making for a better bottom line. Keep in mind that this is over a long span including all games. If your an astute handicapper that picks and chooses his spots, a half point buy can be a huge asset to your sports betting arsenal.
As we stated earlier in the article, once you are familiar with key numbers, you can use them to your advantage in helping you pick or pass on a game because you can literally kind of see which way the book wants the public to bet. We all know that the book wins long term so there's nothing wrong with being on the same side as them!
This means that you as a rule of thumb (this does NOT apply to all spreads, just most!) you should avoid laying -2.5, -6.5, -9.5 and -3.5. These numbers are inviting you to bet on spreads that appear to be allowing you to win on key numbers. The book isn't this stupid. Their offering easy cheesey lines because they believe just the opposite is going to happen.
Furthermore, you want to avoid wagering on lines such as +3.5, +7.5, +10.5 and +4.5 because this is a just the opposite of the inviting favorites. Their inviting underdogs! The book isn't going to put out an opening line and let you land on a key number so easily. Do you really think their going to let you put the odds in your favor? No way. Steer clear of these opening lines unless you have good solid reasoning for fading them which does happen, but not often.
All joking aside, if you take heed to this article, you have just increased your NFL winning percentage by 3% or more. Believe it!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
NFL ATS Winners ABSOLUTELY FREE 1-877-768-2925 Call PlaybyPlay Sports Now!
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming in 2015!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
NFL Computer Picks - We enter the statistics into the database and the computer crunches the numbers and gives final score predictions. These should be used for entertainment only!
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2015 NFL Predictions - Bob makes projections on each team's record (plus Super Bowl winner prediction) and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 100% sign-up bonus up to $200 FREE!
MyBookie - Credit cards work GREAT here! Get a massive 50% bonus up to $2000 in free cash!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.