There are many reasons for line movement in NFL point spreads. These reasons include but are not limited to: injuries to key player(s), one sided action in which the bookies need to move the line in order to make an attempt at receiving balanced action, smart money (wiseguy plays), changes in weather and more. Just because a line moves, doesn't mean that it's a game worth betting on. That's where we come in. We pick these games apart, determine if there's value and then either pounce or pass on it. As you can see from looking at our past results (5 straight profitable seasons), our formula for picking these games is a big moneymaker.
Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a dead money play you may have been considering.
Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Friday 6PM EST.) and line move plays can come in as late as minutes prior to gametime. It's highly recommended that you check this page multiple times per week so that you don't miss out on any of these golden picks!
Week 14: (12/5 through 12/9) Posted by late Sat. night.
Week 13: (11/28 through 12/2) The Tennessee Titans opened at +4 (or higher at some books) and have been bet down to +3.5 despite receiving only 34% of the action. The Washington Redskins opened as a pick'em and have moved to -1 despte 70% of of the public betting on the Gmen. The Seattle Seahawks opened as -5 home favs. vs. N.O. The line has moved up to -5.5 despite only 41% backing the Hawks.
Week 13 NFL Line Move Plays: Titans +3.5 (loss), Redskins -1 (loss) and Seahawks -5.5 (win).
Week 12: (11/21 through 11/25) The St. Louis Rams opened up as a pick'em vs. the Chicago Bears and moved up to -1 point favs despite less than half of the public backing them. The Arizona Cardinals opened as -1 home favorites vs. the Colts and have gone up to -3 despite only 40% liking Arizona.
Week 12 NFL Line Move Plays: St. Louis Rams -1 (win), Arizona Cardinals -3 (win).
Week 11: (11/14 through 11/18) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened up as +2.5 home dogs to Atlanta. The line has since gone down to TB -1 despite only 45% on the Bucs. The Cleveland Browns opened up as +6.5 road dogs and the line has been bet down to 5.5 despite only 36% on the Browns. The Carolina Panthers opened as -1.5 home favs. vs. NE. The line has moved up to -3 despite only 43% backing the Panthers.
Week 11 NFL Line Move Plays TB -1 (win), Cleveland +5.5 (loss) and Carolina -3 ***3 UNIT BEST BET ALERT!***(win).
Week 10: (11/7 through 11/11) The Atlanta Falcons opened at +4 and the line has dropped to +3.5 despite only 35% backing the Falcons. ATL comes off a much needed by week and gets Roddy White back this week. We anticipate Steven Jackson having a good day as well, despite the fact that he's lost a step. The Seahawks have looked vulnerable over the last 2 games and will be so again Sunday, as they'll be missing run stopper Red Bryant, who is not replacable. This game is likely to come down to a field goal or a straight up Falcons win.
Week 10 NFL Line Move Plays: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (loss)
Week 9: (10/31 through 11/4) No picks qualified as line move plays this week.
Week 8: (10/24 through 10/28) The Arizona Cardinals opened at a pick'em and the line has moved up to -2.5 despite only 36% of the public backing them. The Buffalo Bills opened up as +11.5 underdog and the line has dropped to +11 (and even 10.5 at some shops) despite the Bills only receiving 33% of the action at the betting windows.
Week 8 Line Move Plays: Arizona Cardinals -2.5 ***3 UNIT BEST BET ALERT***(win) and Buffalo Bills +11 (loss).
Week 7: (10/17 through 10/21) The NYJ opened as +4 home dogs and the line has moved down to +3.5 despite only 25% backing the Jets. The Jets have the better defense and NE is missing quite a few key players. The Eagles opened up as -1.5 home favs and have gone up to -2.5 despite only 41% of the public backing the Eagles. The TB Bucs opened up as +7 road dogs at Atlanta. The line has dropped to 6.5 despite only 34% on TB. Atlanta's defense is horrible right not and they don't warrant laying a TD to ANYBODY right now. The Steelers opened up as -1 home favs vs. Balt. The line has gone up to 2 and even 2.5 at some books despite only receiving 41% of the action.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: NYJ +3 (win), Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (loss), TB Buccaneers +6.5 (loss), Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (win).
Week 6: (10/10 through 10/14) We don't usually fade the line move but we are this week with the Bucs. The line opened up at TB -1 and has moved to TB +3. We don't believe the Eagles are worthy of being favored against anybody on the road with their defense and a QB change. The New York Jets opened up as +2.5 home dogs vs. PItt. The line has moved to a pick'em despite the J-E-T-S only receiving 46% of the public's backing.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (loss), New York Jets pick'em (loss).
Week 5: (10/3 through 10/7) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +12.5 underdogs and the line has dropped to +11.5 despite the Jags only receiving 44% of the action. The Oakland Raiders opened at +6 and have been bet down to 5 despite only receiving a paltry 27% of the bets.
Week 5 Line Move Plays: Jacksonville +11.5 (loss), Oakland Raiders +5 (win).
Week 4: 9/29 through 9/30 The Houston Texans opened up as +3 home dogs to Seattle and the line has dropped off of the almighty 3 down to +2.5, which is a major move. The NY Jets opened up as +5 underdogs at Tennessee. The line has since dropped a point and a half to +3.5 despite the Jets only receiving 41% of the action. NY is a LIVE dog!
Week 4 Line Move Picks: Houston +2.5 (loss) and Jets +3.5 (loss).
Week 3: (9/19 through 9/23) Detroit opened at +3 and have been bet down to +1. The public is even on this game. Sharps are on Det. The Skins secondary is dead meat this weekend. The Carolina Panthers opened up as -3 favs at home vs. the NYG. The line has swung 5 points in NYG favor creating a situation in which the Panthers are the underdog (+2). The Giants have problems. Carolina held well vs. a dominant Seattle team and barely lost to a Buffalo team with momentum. Much of the media is stating that Eli and the Giants are just cold. The reality is that they just aren't that good right now. Especially in a situation in which the team is laying points on the road! This game won't come easy, but we believe the Giants are going to lose straight up here. The Miami Dolphins opened up at a pick'em and have moved to -2 despite only receiving 32% of the action. SF opened up at -9.5 vs. Indy. The line has gone up a half point despite only 45% backing the Niners. Kaepernick is going to have a huge day. For those that play daily fantasy football, make sure you have him in your salary cap leagues!
Week 3 NFL Line Move Plays: Detroit Lions +1 (win), Carolina Panthers +2 (win), Miami Dolphins -2 (win), SF 49ers (-10)(loss).
Week 2: (9/12 through 9/15) The St. Louis Rams opened up as +7 underdogs and have dropped to 6.5 despite only receiving 31% of the action. The Green Bay Packers opened as -7 favs and have moved up to -7.5 despite receiving only 39% of the vote. Some books have this number up in the 8's and 9's as well. The NYG opened up as +5.5 home dogs to Denver and have dropped down to +4 despite only being backed by 37% of NFL bettors.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Plays: St. Louis Rams +6.5 (loss), Green Bay Packers -7.5 (win), NYG +4 (loss)
Week 1: (9/5 through 9/9) This page usually consists of line move plays in which the line is moving up while the publilc is betting the other way. In an odd occurence, we're actually fading one line move and siding with the public on another this week! The first is the Bengals/Bears game where the Bears opened at -4 and the line has moved down to -3. The public are one siding the Bengals big-time and we think they're going to get waxed. The Bengals offensive line has some issues. Julius Peppers is going to cause big problems for Cinci all day. The Bears are better than most think. We see the Bears winning here by a touchdown or more. The second game is the TB/NYJ game where the Bucs opened as -1 favs and have moved up to -3.5. We feel that this line move is justified due to rookie QB Geno Smith being forced into action due to an injury to Mark Sanchez. A rookie starting in NY on a team in disarray? We're loving this angle and are laying the -3.5.
Week 1 Line Move Plays: Chicago Bears -3 (push) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (loss).
Previous Year's Picks
Super Bowl XLVII: No line movement as of 1//27/13.
Conference Championships: (1/20) The SF 49ers opened up as -3 favorites. The line has steamed to -4.5 and it's not just public money. Both squares and sharps alike are betting the Niners. Our personal take is that Atlanta won't be able to stop SF's rushing attack which will set up their passing game creating a disaster for the Dirty Birds.
Conference Championshps Line Move Plays: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (loss).
Divisional Playoffs: (1/12 through 1/13) The Denver Broncos opened at -9.5 and have moved up a point to -10 despite only receiving 44% of the action. The Packers/49ers total opened up at 46 and has been bet down to 45 despite 60% of the public betting on the over.
Divisional Playoffs Line Move Plays: Denver -10 (loss) and GB/SF UNDER 45 (loss).
Wildcard Weekend: (1/5 through 1/6) The Seattle Seahawks opened up as a pick'em on the road at Washington. The line moved to Seattle -3 despite the game getting even action on both sides. The Baltimore Ravens opened up at -6.5 and the line has moved up to -7 despite only 34% backing Baltimore.
Wildcard Line Move Plays: Seattle Seahawks -3 (win) and Baltimore Ravens -7 (win).
Week 17: (12/30) The Houston Texans opened up as -4 road favs vs. Indy. The line has shot up to -7 despite Hou only receiving 34% of the action. The Philadelphia Eagles opened as +9.5 road dogs vs. the Gmen and the line has been bet down to +7 despite only 43% on Philly. The Detroit Lions opened up as +3.5 home dogs vs. Da Bears. The line has gone down to +3 despite 63% of the public betting on Chi. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened up as +5 road dogs and have been bet down to +3 despite only 40% backing them. The idea here is that the Falcons are expected to rest their starters at some point as they've already locked up their playoff position.
Week 17 Line Move Plays: Houston -7 (loss), Philadelphia +7 (loss), Tampa Bay +3 (win).
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/23) No plays fit our line move parameters this week.
Week 15: (12/13 through 12/17) The Atlanta Falcons opened up as a pick and the line has moved to -1 despite only 39% backing the Dirty Birds. The Houston Texans opened up as -9.5 home favs. vs. Indy. The line has moved up to -10 despite the fact that only 34% are backing the Texans.
Week 15 Line Move Plays; Atlanta -1 (win), Houston -10 (win)
Week 14: (12/6 through 12/10) The Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as -7.5 home favs vs. the SD Chargers and the line moved up as high as -9.5 and then back down to -8 despite only 34% backing the Steelers. The Houston/New England total opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to 51 despite only 31% of action coming in on the UNDER.
Week 14 Line Move Plays: Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (loss), HouTEX UNDER 51 (loss)
Week 13: (11/29 through 12/2) The Dallas Cowboys opened up as -9.5 home favs. vs. Philly and the line has moved to -10.5 despite only 43% of the money coming in on Dallas. The Detroit Lions opened up as -3.5 home favs vs. Indy and the line has jetted up to -6.5 despite only 42% of all bettors on the Lions. The Broncos opened up as -7 home favs. vs. TB The line has gone up to -7.5 despite only 37% on Denver. The St. Louis Rams opened up as +9 home dogs vs. SF. The line has dropped to +8 despite only 33% on the Rams.
Week 13 Line Move Plays: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (loss), Lions -6.5 (loss), Broncos -7.5 (win), Rams +8 (win).
Week 12: (11/22 through 11/26) The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as -7 favorites vs. the Raiders. The line has gone up to -8.5 despite only 40% of the public wagering on Cinci. The 49ers opened up as a pick'em and the line has swayed to SF -1 despite onlly 38% backing them. The NYG opened as -1 home favorites vs. GB. The line has steamed to -3 despite ony 39% betting on NY.
Week 12 Line Move Plays: Bengals -8.5 (win), 49ers -1 (win), Giants -3 (win).
Week 11: (11/15 through 11/19) The Denver Broncos opened up as -7 point home favs. vs. SD. The line has moved up to -8 despite only 49% of the action coming in on Denver. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as -3.5 home vs. vs. Baltimore. Once the announcement was made that QB Ben Roethlisberger was out, the line jetted 7 points to Balt. -3.5. This team WILL rally around the backup QB as they always have when Big Ben has been out. I expect a straight up win by Pitt here.Week 11 Line Move Plays: Denver Broncos -8 (loss), Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (win)..
Week 10: (11/8 through 11/12) The Bengals opened up as +5.5 home dogs vs. the NYG. The line has dropped to +4 despite only 30% backing Cinci.
Week 10 Line Move Plays: Cincinnati +4 (win).
Week 9: (11/1 through 11/5) Tennessee opened up as a +4 home dog vs. Chicago and the line dropped a half point to +3.5 despite nobody betting on the Titans. Oakland opened up as a -1 home fav. vs. TB. The line has gone up to -2 despite the Raiders only being backed at 37%. Dallas opened up as +5 road dogs at Atlanta. The line has dropped to +3.5 despite Dall only receiving 43% of the action.
Week 9 Line Move Plays: Titans +3.5 (loss), Raiders -2 (loss).
Week 8: (10/25 through 10/29) The Miami Dolphins opened up as +3 uunderdogs and have been bet down to +2 despite receiving only 33% of the action. The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -1 favs vs. the undefeated Atlanta Falcons. The line has jetted up to -3 despite the Eagles only receiving 42% of the action. The Seattle Seahawks opened as +3 road dogs at Detroit. The line has moved down a point to +2 despite Sea. only receiving 42% of the action. Pittsburgh opened as -3.5 home favs. vs. Washington. The line has gone up to -4 despite only 36% on the Steelers. Lastly, we're fading a line move where the Cards opened as home dogs at +6 and the line has moved up to +7. We're expecting a defensive battle in which 7 points is huge.
Week 8 Line Move Plays: Miami +2 (win), Philly -3 (loss), Seattle +2.5 (loss), Pittsburgh -4 (win), Arizona +7 (loss)
Week 7: (10/18 through 10/22) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +3 road dogs vs. Indy. The line had dropped to +2 despite the Browns only receiving 36% of the action. The TB Bucs opened up as 3 point home dogs vs. the Saints. The line has dropped to TB +1.5 despite the Buccaneers receiving a meager 29% of the action.
Week 7 Line Move Picks: Browns +2 (loss), Buccaneers +1.5 (loss).
Week 6: (10/11 through 10/15) The Cleveland Browns opened as +3 home underdogs to the Bengals. The line has since dropped a half point, despite the Browns only receiving 38% of the action, which is huge when you're talking about moving off of the 3. The Miami Dolphins opened up as -4 home favs. vs. STL and the line has moved up to -4.5 despite the Dolphins only seeing around 43% of the action. The Seattle Seahawks opened up as +4.5 home dogs to NE. The line has since dropped a full point to 3.5 despite the Seahawks getting very little action.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns +2.5 (win), Dolphins -4.5 (loss), Seahawks +3.5 (win)
Week 5: (10/4 through 10/8) The KC Chiefs opened up as 7 point home dogs to Baltimore. The line has dropped a half point to +6.5 despite the Chiefs only receiving 26% of the action.
Week 5 Line Move Plays: KC Chiefs +6.5 (win).
Week 4: (9/27 through 10/1) The Buffalo Bills opened up as 5 point home dogs to NE. The line has since dropped to Buffalo +4 despite only 27% of the public wagering on them. The Minnesota Vikings opened up as 5.5 dogs and have been bet down to +4 despite only receiving 40% of the action. We rarely go "with" line moves but have found ourselves backing a situation this week in which Seattle opened as -1 favs at STL and the line has moved to Sea -3. The Rams offensive line is trashed with injuries and this is a real bad spot vs. a nasty Seattle front 7. Jacksonville opened up as +1 dogs and the line jetted up to 2.5 and back down to +1. We love the Jags here to win straight up. We're fading a line move in which GB opened up as 9 point home favs. vs. a Saints defense that can't stop anybody. The line has moved down to 7.5 and we're all over GB to win in a blowout. Lastly, the Eagles opened up as -1 favs at home vs. the NYG. They're getting very little action at the sportsbooks (35%) and the line has moved up to -2. Philly isn't as bad as they've looked and this is a great spot for them at home vs. the NYG.
Week 4 Line Move Picks: Buffalo +4 (loss), Minnesota +4 (win), Seattle -3 (loss), Jacksonville +1 (loss), Green Bay -7.5 (loss), Philadelphia -2 (push)
Week 3: (9/20 through 9/24) The Carolina Panthers opened up as a +1 underdog at home to the NYG. The line has since crossed zero and Carolina is now a -2.5 favorite despite receiving only 40% of the action at the betting windows. The Dallas Cowboys opened up as -7 point favorites at home vs. TB. The line has moved up to -8 despite only 40% of the public betting on the pokes. The Miami Dolphins opened up as +3 dogs at home vs. the NYJ. The line moved down to +1 and has bounced back up to +2.5, despite only 34% of the bets coming in on Mia. The MNF game between GB/SEA had an opening total of 47.5. It has since dropped to 45 despite only 38% of the action coming in on the UNDER. We expected that total to open at 39 so are very excited to grab all of that extra value!
Week 3 Line Move Plays: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (loss), Dallas Cowboys -7 (loss), Miami Dolphins +2.5 (loss), GB/SEA UNDER 45 (win).
Week 2: (9/14 through 9/17) The Carolina Panthers opened up as +4 home dogs to the New Orleans Saints. The line has since dropped to Carolina +2.5 despite the Panthers receiving only 23% of the action at the books! Arizona opened up at +13 at New England and the line has moved up a point to +14. Double digit NFL dogs are good bets. Especially vs. teams that have weak secondaries like the Pats! The Eagles opened up as -1 favs at home vs. Balt. The world is betting the Ravens yet the Eagles line has gone up to -2.5. Don't get caught up in this trap line. Yes, Philly looked bad (rusty) vs. Clev. last week but coach Andy Reid is a football guru and this is a much better team than what we saw in week 1. The Rams opened up as +3 home dogs to Washington. RGIII had a great showing at New Orleans (weak D) last week but won't have the same success vs. a much improved Rams team that has had great success at home against good QB's. I like the Rams to win this game straight up. Lastly, the Falcons opened up as -4 favs at home vs. Broncos. Atlanta has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. The team is a legit Super Bowl contender. I'm predicting a Falcons win by 10+!
Week 2 NFL Line Move Plays: Panthers +2.5 (win), Cardinals +14 (win), Eagles -2.5 (loss), Rams +3.5 (win), Falcons -3 (win).
Week 1: (9/5 through 9/10) The Tennessee Titans opened up as 7 point underdogs at home to the New England Patriots. The line quickly dropped to +5.5 and has since floated back up to +6 despite the Pats drawing 74% of the money on this game. The Titans getting 6 covers three key numbers (3, 4 and a push on 6) so this is huge value. Tennessee is much improved and it wouldn't surprise us a bit to see them win this game straight up. The SF 49ers opened up as 7 point dogs on the road at Green Bay. While the betting action has been somewhat even (SF 46%/GB 54%) this number offers great value as we're a winner on the key numbers of +3 and +4. SF has a tenacious defense and a 3 point margin either way is a probable result.
Week 1 Line Move Pays: Tennessee Titans +6 (loss), San Francisco 49ers +5 (win).
AFC/NFC Championships: (1/22) No line movement.
Divisional Playoffs: (1/14 through 1/15) We've got 2 games this weekend that qualify as line move plays. The first comes from the Saints/Niners game. N.O. is getting pounded by the general betting public and the line has moved up from Saints -3 to -4. We're going to fade that move and go the other way with SF who we believe will win this game straight up. The second game is the Broncos/Pats game where N.E. opened up at -14 and have moved down to 13.5. The bookies are receiving even action on this game. We believe that despite New Englands poor secondary, the Broncos won't be able score enough to stay within the spread. In fact, we're calling for a Patriot blowout here.
Divisional Playoffs Line Move Plays: SF +4 (win) and N.E. -13.5 (win).
Wildcard Weekend: None of our plays qualify as line move plays.
Week 17: (1/1) None of our plays qualify for line move plays.
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/26) The Colts opened as 6.5 underdogs and have been bet down to 6 despite the whole world betting the heck out of the Texans. The Raiders/Chiefs line opened up with the Chiefs being a 1 point fav at home and has shot up to -2.5 despite KC only receiving 44% of the action at the windows. The Bears/Packers total opened at 45 and has been bet down to 43.5 despite the under only receiving 34% of the action..
Week 16 Liine Move Plays: Indianapolis +6 (win), Chiefs -2.5 (loss), Bears/Packers UNDER 43.5 (loss).
Week 15: (12/15 through 12/19) Just one this week. The Car/Hou total opened at 46.5 and has moved down to 45 despite the public hammering the over. We believe there will a be a ton of running in this game which should put the final combined score in the 30's.
Week 15 Line Move Plays: Panthers/Texans UNDER 45 (win).
Week 14: (12/8 through 12/12) The Falcons/Panthers game total opened up at a loft 48.5 and has been knocked down 1.5 points to 47 despite the public hammmering the over.
Week 14 Line Move Plays: Falcons/Panthers UNDER 47 (loss).
Week 13: (12/4 through 12/5) The Miami Dolphins opened up as -1 favs at home vs. Oakland. The line has shot up to -3 despite only 38% of the public betting on Miami. The Arizona Cardinals opened up as +6 dogs at home vs. Dallas. The line has dropped to 4.5 despite a meager 29% on the Cards.
Week 13 Line Move Plays: Miami -3 (win) and Arizona +4.5 (win).
Week 12: (11/24 through 11/28) Arizona opened up as +3 underdogs at St. Louis. The line has dropped to +2.5. Wrong team favored! Look for special teams to be the difference here. The NYJ opened up as -9 favs at home vs. Buff. and have moved up to -9.5 despite the public siding with the Bills. Lastly, we're fading a line move where the Bears opened up as -1 favs on the road at Oakland. The line has moved 4 points making the Raiders the favorite. Too much is being made of the loss of Cutler. Hanie is a fine backup. Expect to see a massive amounto of touches and targets by Matt Forte which plays into the weakness of the Raiders D.
Week 12 Line Move Plays: Arizona Cardinals +2.5 (win), NYJ -9.5 (loss), Bears +3 (loss)
Week 11: (11/17 through 11/21) Miami opened up as -1 favs at home vs. Buffalo and the line has bounced up to -2 and back down to -1.5 despite only 30% betting the Phins. We're fading a move in the Raiders/Vikings game where Minny opened as -1 favs at home and are now a +1 dog. Don't put much weight into the Pack ripping Minnesota apart. This will be a competitive game with the Vikings coming out on top. The Pokes opened up as -9 favs on the road at Wash and the line has been bet down to +7 despite hardly anybody betting on Washington. The Chargers/Bears total opened up very high at 46.5 and has been bet down to 45 despite only 35% betting on the under.
Week 11 Line Move Plays: Dolphins -1.5 (win), Vikings +1 (loss), Redskins +7 (win), SD/CHI UNDER 45 (loss)..
Week 10: (11/10 through 11/14) The Dallas Cowboys opened up as -5 favs at home vs. Buffalo and have moved up to -5.5 despite the squares hammering the Bills (surprisingly) to the tune of 62.5%! The only other play for this week is the Jets at -1.5 who opened at -1 and have been bet up to -1.5 and COULD be bet up to -3 by Sunday. (The public is on NE at 62%).
Week 10 Line Move Plays: Dallas Cowboys -5.5 (win), New York Jets -1.5 (loss).
Week 9: (11/6 through 11/7) The NYJ opened at +1 and have moved up to +2.5. The Bills have done well but haven't faced a defense like NY. We like the Jets to win straight up here. The second gane we like is Stl/Arizona and we're again fading the line move. Arizona opened up as -3.5 favs at home vs. the Rams. Kolb is not likely to play and Beanie Wells is nursing an injury, but that doesn't deter us as Kolb not playing may actually be a good thing for Arizona. Wells will likely play and him and his backups will get a ton of carries vs. a Rams team that won't be able to stop them. Your delusional if you think the Rams win over New Orleans who beat themselves means anything. Cards prevail here.
Week 9 Line Move Plays: NY Jets +2.5 (win), Arizona Cardinals -3 (win)
Week 8: (10/30 through 10/31) The Vikings opened up as +4 dogs @ CAR. The line has moved down to +3.5 despite Minny only receiving approx. a third of the betting action. We're fading the line move in Pittsburgh, as the Pats opened up as -1.5 favs and have moved up to -2.5. We like the Steelers to win this game straight up. In case your wondering, the Patriots are getting a ton of action at the window, which tells us this move is not sharp action, but square money pushing the line up. Dallas opened up as +3.5 dogs at Philly. The line has moved down a half point despite most of the action coming in on the Eagles. Dallas has a great shot of winning this game straight up as they're better on both sides of the ball. Lastly, the Lions/Broncos TOTAL opened up at 43.5. This line has been knocked down 2 points despite 65% of the action coming in on the over. We expect the final score to be around 33 points, which should give us a nice cushion for an UNDER play.
Week 8 Line Move Plays: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (win), Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (win), Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (loss), Detroit/Denver UNDER 41.5 (loss).
Week 7: (10/23 through 10/23) Washington opened as +3 dogs and have been down to +2.5 despite getting only a third of the betting action. We're fading a couple moves as well this week: Miami opened as a -3 favorite at home vs. Denver. The line has gone all the way down to a pickem. Tebow mania has hit NFL fans, but not us NFL bettors. Miami isn't as bad as they've looked and we fully expect them to have a good showing vs. a mediocre Broncos team. Lastly, the Chargers/Jets game opened at a pickem, shot up to SD -2 and back down to SD -1. We like the Jets to win by a field goal or more, so these points are just icing on the cake.
Week 7 Line Move Plays: Washington Redskins +2.5 (loss), Miami Dolphins Pick'em (loss) and New York Jets +1 (win).
Week 6: (10/16 through 10/17) Dallas opened up as touchdown underdogs and have dropped a half point to +6.5 despite getting very little action at the windows. The SF/Detroit total opened at 46.5 and has dropped a half point (we expect it to drop more) despite most of the action being on the over. Washington opened up as point favorites and are now +3 dogs as a TON of action is coming in on the Eagles. Philly has issues. We loved the Skins at -1 and we really love them at +3!
Week 6 Line Move Plays: Cowboys +6.5 (win), SF/Detroit UNDER 46 (win), Washington +3 (got better line at 5:34AM EST - Changed from +1 to +3) (loss).
Week 5: (10/9 through 10/10) The Seattle Seahawks opened at +10 and have been bet down a half point despite NOBODY betting on them at the windows. Denver opened up as +6 dogs at home vs. SD and has been bet down to +4 despite the Chargers receiving over 75% of the action at the sportsbooks.
Week 5 Line Move Plays: Seattle Seahawks +9.5 (win) and Denver Broncos +4 (loss).
Week 4: (10/2 through 10/3) The NYG opened up as 3 point favs at Arizona. The line was quickly bet down to AZ +1 despite a measley 30% of the public on the Cards. The 2nd play we like is Ten/Cle. The Browns opened up as -1 favs and the line is now a pick'em. We're not real happy that the public are hammering Tennessee, as we really prefer not to be on the same side as the squares, however, Tennessee's defense is SERIOUSLY underrated and we believe they have their offensive line/timing/run game issues fixed which means Chris Johnson is ready to go off. The Browns can't stop the run, so this is surely worth a play. Lastly, this one is sure to scare the heck out of ya but ya just gotta do it. The Broncos opened up as +13 point dogs at GB. The line has only dropped a point but we're still calling this a line move play as everybody and their brother is on GB. The key here is that the Packers defense is pourus, which doesn't justify laying 12.5 to a team that can throw the ball. Expect Orton to keep it close enough to get the money.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: Cardinals +1 (loss), Titans pickem (win), Broncos +12.5 (loss).
Week 3: (9/25 through 9/26) The Bills opened up as +9 dogs at home vs. NE and have been bet down to +7.5. The Pats defense is horrible and the Bills should be able to stay within a touchdown if not win the game out-right. Philly opened up as -7.5 favs at home vs. the Gmen and have moved up to -9 despite receiving only 36% of the action in Vegas. The NYJ/Oak total opened up at 42 and has been bet down to 41 despite only 40% of the money coming in on the UNDER. The Jets D is stellar and we expect there to be quite a bit of running in this game. We project the total to go under 35. Lastly, the Buccaneers opened up as 1.5 dogs at home vs. Atlanta. The line has moved 2.5 points making TB a favorite which they should be. Only 27% of the loot is on TB and a few betting syndicates are backing the Bucs. This game should be the best bet of the week with around a 75% chance of covering the spread.
Week 3 Line Move Plays: Bills +7.5 (win), Eagles -9 (loss), Jets/Raiders UNDER 41 (loss), Buccaneers -1.5 (win)
Week 2: (9/18 through 9/19) Lots of spreads moved this week, but we only found value in a couple of those moves. The Bears opened up as a touchdown dog at New Orleans and has dropped a half point down to +6.5 The Saints defense is really poor and we believe the Bears can possibly win this game straight up. The Bengals opened up as 5 point dogs at Denver. The line has steamed down to +3.5 despite most of the betting action coming Denver's way.
Week 2 Line Move Plays: Bears +6.5 (loss), Bengals +3.5 (win).
Week 1: (9/8 through 9/12) The Buffalo Bills opened as +6.5 point dogs at KC and were promptly bet down to +5.5 despite only receiving 43% of the action at the windows.
Week 1 Line Move Plays: Buffalo Bills +5.5 (win).
Super Bowl XLV: "The Big Game" opened with 45 as a total and has quickly moved up to 46. We couldn't disagree more with this line move. We believe that the final score will fall in the mid-30's making this one of the most solid plays of the season. Good luck!
Our Pick: Green Bay/Pittsburgh UNDER 46 (pending)
Conference Championships: As of Monday, there hasn't been any line movement. I anticipate the Packers line moving from 3-4 at some point in the week, but again, as of now there hasn't been any line movement so there are no plays to be made.
Divisional Playoffs: (1/15 through 1/16) So far we like one this week. The NY/NE game opened at 45.5 and has moved down a half point despite the general betting public hammering the over. We expect a medium scoring game with the total points to fall under 40 points.
Our Pick: Jets/Patriots UNDER 45 (loss)
Wildcard Weekend: (1/8 through 1/9) We just like one this week. We're actually going against the grain and are fading the half point move in the Balt/KC game where the Ravens opened at -2.5 and the line moved up to -3. We think KC is seriously underrated. Getting points at Arrowhead is a BEAUTIFUL propositon as well as the team has had great success there this season. We expect KC to win straight up.
Wildcard Weekend Line Move Play: Chiefs +3 (loss).
Week 17: (1/2) Miami opened as a short underdog at N.E. and the line has jetted up to -6. Many thought that the Pats were going to rest starters but apparently this won't be the case, for the 1st half at least and that may be plenty to build and sustain a touchdown lead over the Phins. We like two more as well. Pitt opened at -6 on the road at Cleveland and the line has dropped down to +5.5 despite the Public hammering the Steelers. This is a big rivalry game for Browns fans and Pittsburgh is likely to rest their starters in the 2nd half. The Browns are a LIVE dog here and are worth some lunch money on the money line too. This IS Cleveland's Super Bowl. Lastly, we're going to take a poker on Houston at home vs. Jax. Jax opened as a -2.5 fav and the line has now moved 5.5 points making Houston the favorite. This is probably the weakest line movement play we've released all season as it's solely based on injuries to numerous Jags players.
Week 17 Line Move Plays: Patriots -6 (win), Browns +5.5 (loss), Houston -3 (win).
Week 16: (12/23 through 12/27) There were no line moves this week that intrigued us enough to make a play. Good luck this weekend!
Week 15: (12/19 through 12/2) There were quite a few line moves but we only like one this week and we're going to go against the grain and fade it. Miami opened as -6 home favorites against the Bills. The line has dropped a point down to -5. We like the Phins here. We've backed the Bills quite a bit this season, however, this matchup is really bad for the Bills and Miami should dominate them.
Week 15 Line Move Play: Miami Dolphins -5 (loss).
Week 14: (12/9 through 12/13) We like three line play moves this week. The Bucs opened as -2 point favorites on the road at Washington. The line has dropped down to Skins +1.5 despite the public only backing Wash. to the tune of 35%. Buffalo opened as a 1 point favorite at home vs. Cleve, then dropped down to a pickem, then back to -1, all despite the general public heavily favoriting the Browns, who are said to be starting Jake Delhomme. It's not often that we'd weight a QB move so heavily, but this guy is BAD. Lastly, Miami opened at -6 at the NYJ. The line has only dropped a point, but we love this play as it should be a tight game and +5 covers two VERY key numbers (common margins) which are +4 and +3. Good luck this weekend!
Week 14 Line Move Picks: Redskins +1.5 (win), Bills -1 (win), Dolphins +5 (win).
Week 13: (12/2 through 12/6) We only like one line move this week. Minny opened up at -6 at home vs. the Bills and the line has been bet down to Bills +5.5. While a half point move isn't anything to write home about, we really like the fight in this Bills team vs. an underachieving Vikings team. Even more importantly, getting +5.5 covers two VERY common final score margins (key numbers) which are 3 and 4. The Bills have a shot of winning this game straight up, so naturally, we love it!
Week 13 Line Move Plays: Buffalo Bills +5.5 (loss).
Week 12: (11/25 through 11/29) We only like one line move this week. The Jaguars opened at +9 at NYG and have been bet down to +7 despite only getting thirty eight percent of the action at the windows. Jax is playing some good ball and COULD win this game straight up, so naturally, we love the points here.
Week 12 Line Move Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (win).
Week 11: (11/18 through 11/22) There was only one game that had a line move that we like this week. Cleveland visits Jacksonville and opened as -3 favorites. The line dipped down to -1.5 and is currently at -2. We're fading this move and going with Jacksonville who are playing some good ball and going against the Browns who we believe have already peaked and are in a bad spot here on the road.
Week 11 Line Move Picks; Jacksonville Jaguars -2 (win).
Week 10: (11/10 through 11/15) Jax opened at -1 at home vs. the Texans and have moved up a half point to -1.5 at some online sportsbooks despite the public absolutely hammering the Texans. The Steelers opened at -4 at home vs. the Patriots. The line has sinced moved up a half point despite 47% of all sports bettors taking NE. We like Pitt to win by 7+ here.
Week 10 Line Move Plays: Jaguars -1.5 (win)(you can still get this game at -1 if you shop for it), Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (loss)
Week 9: (11/7 through 11/8) The Chargers opened up as -1.5 favs on the road vs. Houston. The line has jetted up to -3 despite SD only getting around 42% of the action. They appear to be back on track and shouldn't have any problem plowing through a weak Houston defense. N.E. opened up as -5 favorites at Cleveland and the line has dropped a half point to +4.5 despite the Browns getting very little action. The 2010 Brownies are a good football team. They have a legit shot of winning this game straight up, so getting +4.5 which covers 2 key numbers is a very tasty proposition. Lastly, the Eagles opened up at -2.5 vs. Indy. The line has since moved to -3 despite the Colts getting almost all the action at the windows. The Eagles have Vick/D. Jackson back this week and are coming off a bye. They should win and cover here.
Week 9 Line Move Plays: SD -3 (win), Cleveland +4.5 (win), Philly -3 (loss).
Week 8: (10/31 through 11/1) Only 2 games with line moves caught our eye this week. In the first game, the Lions opened as a -1 favorite over Washington. The line has since moved up to -2.5 despite the Lions getting meager action at the windows. The second game is the Steelers/Saints game where N.O. opened as a +1 home dog and the line has moved 2 points to them being a -1 favorite. We like the Saints to win by 3+.
Week 8 Line Move Picks: Lions -2.5 (win) and Saints -1 (win).
Week 7: (10/24 through 10/25) There were quite a few line moves this week but only 2 that we have any faith in covering at their current lines. The first is the Cleveland Browns who opened at +14 at New Orleans. The line has dropped a point to +13 despite the Saints getting big action at the windows. The Browns are a much improved team that haven't been getting blown like they used to. We believe this pick has an 80% chance of covering. The second one is the Steelers/Dolphins total where we expect Pitt to put up at least 28 points by themselves and we figure that Miami should be able to put up 14+ which would give us a winner. The line opened at 40 and has been bumped up to 41 despite sportsbooks booking tons of action on the under.
Week 7 Line Move Plays: Browns +13 (win) and Steelers/Dolphins OVER 41 (win).
Week 6: (10/17) Last week was kind of a buzkil as we went 2-3. Regardless of the result, we'd play that Bills pick 100x over. The Cowboys beat themselves as well. Can't win'em all! Not much cooking this week as we only like one of this week's line moves. That game is the Browns/Steelers where Pitt opened up at -11.5 and the line has moved to -13.5 and may even move more. The Browns have announced that Colt McCoy will be making his first career start. This guy was a great college QB but he looked absolutely lost in the pre-season. Toss in the fact that he's making his first start at Pittsburgh and you've got a disaster waiting to unfold. My first thought was that the Browns would alleviate the pressure on him by running the ball. Then I quickly woke up to realize that YOU CAN'T RUN ON PITTSBURGH. This one SHOULD get ugly and I anticipate the Steelers winning by multiple scores.
Week 6 Line Movement Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5 (2 UNIT PLAY)(win)
Week 5: (10/10) We kissed our sister last week going 1-1. Ten out of the fourteen games on this week's card had some point spread movement, but we're passing on most of them and ironically the games we do like involving the moves, the spreads didn't move much (1/2 point on most). The first game we like is the Bills who opened at -1 and have moved to -1.5 despite getting zero respect at the betting cage. We're not a huge believer in letdowns (Jags win over Indy last week) but we're not a big believer in the Jags either. We like the Bills to get a win here. Tampa opened at +7 and quickly moved down to 6.5 despite Cinci getting most of the action at the windows. We think Cinci lacks chemistry and with 6.5 covering (3) key numbers (3, 4, 6), we gotta jump all over that.
The next one is GB/Washington. The skins opened at +3 and have dropped a half point off "the all-mighty" number to 2.5. It's big potatoes when a dog goes from 3 down to 2.5. You can spin this one two ways; By taking the Skins plus the 2.5 or betting them on the moneyline. Both are likely to be winners. Another big move we like is the Bears/Panthers game. The Bears opened at -3 under the assumption that Cutler would play but it's becoming more apparent that Todd Collins will be the starter on Sunday. The Panthers are starting to run the ball better and this SHOULD result in a Panther win. The line has moved a total of 4.5 making the Panthers a -1.5 fav. Another half pointer we like is the Cowboys who opened at -6.5 and has moved to 7. This is a real bad matchup for the Titans as they have pass coverage issues. Miles Austin might go for 200 yards Sunday. What looks like a close game from the outside is likely to end up in a blowout with the Pokes victorious. That's all folks!
Week 5 Line Move Picks: Bills -1.5 (loss), Buccaneers +6.5 (win), Redskins +2.5 (win), Panthers -1.5 (loss), Cowboys -7 (loss).
Week 4: (10/3) We like two moves this week. Chi/NYG opened with the G-Men as a 3 point favorite. The line has moved up to -3.5 despite the public hammering the Bears. With Da Bears coming off a MNF game which gave them a short week, the Giants are a live play and as good as any so far through the first few weeks of the season. The short week variable is VERY underrated and is no joke. The second move we like is in the Bal/Pit game where the Steelers opened up as a -1 fav. and the line has moved to -2.5. The Steelers destroyed a TB team last week that was playing some good ball. The Steelers are scary good this year but nobody seems to be noticing. The public is divided on the game yet the line moved up.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: NYG -3.5 (win) and Pittsburgh -2.5 (loss).
Week 3: (9/26 through 9/27) There were a few moves this week, but only one that interested us. The Jets/Dolphins game opened at a pickem and has moved up to Miami -2.5 and for good reason. The Dolphins are a better team. We expect them to win by a TD+.
Week 3 Play: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (loss)
Week 2: (9/19 through 9/20) We start off week 2's picks with fading a line move. The Ravens opened as -1 favs and have been up to -2.5. Many are fooled by Cinci's week 1 performance at NE. The Bungles are a GOOD team and with the Ravens on a short week coming off MNF, Cinci is a live dog. Tennessee opened as 6-point favs at home vs. Pitt. The public are all over the Titans yet the line has dropped a point down to -5. The Steelers may not win this game, but we'd like to point out that +5 covers 2 HUGE key nfl common final score margins of 3 and 4. Great value here with Pitt. We're fading another move as well. The Eagles opened up at -3 at Detroit and have been bet all the way up to -6.5. We'd have taken the Lions at +3 and are happy to get those extra points. Philly is REALLY banged up and we figure them to lose this game straight up.
Week 2 Line Movement Plays: Bengals +2.5 (win), Steelers +5 (win), Lions +6.5 (win)
Week 1: (9/9 through 9/13) Indy opened up as a -3 fav at Houston. The line has since moved down to Houston +2 and we expect them to win straight up. The only other line movement that we feel has great value is the Chiefs at +4.5. The line opened with the Chargers laying -5.5 and got bet down a point despite Joe Public hammering the Chargers to the tune of 75%! SD may very well win, but the NFL is about key numbers and the Cheifs being able to win straight up or lose by 3 or 4 is very tasty!Week 1 Line Movement Plays: Houston Texans +2 (win), KC Chiefs +4.5 (win)
Super Bowl XLIV: (2/7) The SB 44 line opened with the Colts as a 4 point favorite. It has since gone up to -5. We're fading this move as we believe the Saints offense is back on track and that their defense is GROSSLY underrated. Look for the Saints to not ony cover, but to win by a field goal or more straight up!
Super Bowl Line Move Picks: New Orleans +5 (WIN).
Previous Week's Results
NFC Championship: (1/24) We just like one again this weekend and we're going against the grain. New Orleans opened as a -4 favorite at home vs. the Vikings and the line has dropped to -3.5 which is alright with us because we like the Saints to win by a touchdown or more!
Conferencej Championships Line Move Picks: New Orleans -3.5 (loss).
Divisional Playoffs: (1/16 through 1/17) We just like one move this weekend. The Dallas/Minnesota TOTAL opened up at 47.5 and has moved down to 45.5. Sharp action has drivn the line down as the general betting public is hitting the over to the tune of 60%. Both teams have tough defenses and we feel that this game is likely to land in the mid to high thirties with the Vikings winning by 10 points or more.
Divisional Playoff Line Move Picks: Dallas/Minneota UNDER 45.5 (win).
Wildcard Weekend: (1/10/10) The Philly/Dallas game opened with the Pokes as a -4 fav. It's since been bet down to -3.5. We're fading that move (mostly public driven) and taking Dallas and buying the 1/2 point off to make them -3. The other line move we like is the Balt/NE game where the Pats opened as -4. The Ravens are getting sharp action and the line has moved down to +3.5 and might even be 3 by gametime Sunday.
Wildcard Weekend Picks: Cowboys -3 -135 (win), Baltimore +3.5 (win).
Week 17: (1/3/10) We like three games this week despite line movement happening across the board. The first game we like is Washington at San Diego where the Chargers opened as -6.5 favs and it's currently down to -3.5. Yes, the Skins have sucked huge wanker this year, BUT, San Diego doesn't really have anything to play for and is likely to rest their starters MOST of the game so expect Washington to cover the spread here. The next game we like is the Titans vs. Seahawks. The line has only dropped a half point to 4.5, however, we like Seattle here as they're not a bad home team and +4.5 covers TWO key numbers (3,4). It's not a lock by any means, but offers some decent value. The last game we like is the KC/Denver UNDER. It opened at 39 and has moved down to 38. Broncos WR Brandon Marshall won't play in this game and he was the Broncos only true receving threat. KC has issues moving the ball. Some decent value here with the UNDER.
Week 16 Picks: Washington +3.5 (win), Seattle +4.5 (win), KC/Denver UNDER 38 (loss).
Week 16: (12/25/09 and 12/28/09) Passed.
Week 16 Picks: TBA.
Week 15: (12/17/09 and 12/21/09) Pittsburgh opened as a -1 favorite and the line has moved to -3 despite the public one siding the Packers.
Week 15 Picks: Pittsburgh -3 (loss).
Week 14: (12/10/09 and 12/14/09) The NYJ opened up as a -3 favorite at Tampa and the line has moved to -4. We don't usually fade line moves, however, we believe TB either wins SU or loses by 3 or less. Jet QB Kellen Clemens proves to be inadequate to get the W on the road. Our second game is also a fade of a line move, GB at Chicago. The line opened with the road team Packers being favored by -3 points. The line has since moved to -4. As you probably saw on Thursday night in the Steelers/Browns game, ANYTHING can happen in a division rivalry game. This is another situation where the Bears very well may lose but by 3 or less which would give us a cover.
Week 14 Picks: TB +4 (loss) and Chicago +4 (loss).
Week 13: (12/3/09 and 12/7/09) Phil vs. Atl opened with the Eagles at -6. The line has since been bet down to +4 and it's not public money forcing the move. We like ATL to possibly win SU here. Seattle opened as a one point fav at home vs. the Niners. The line has since moved to SF -1 and we're fading this line move thinking that Seattle handles them at home where they play much better.
Week 13 Picks: Atlanta +4 (loss), Seattle +1 (win).
Week 12: (11/26/09 and 11/30/09) Seattle opened as a -1 favorite AT St. Louis. Much is being made of Bulger being out and the Rams being BAD. The Seahawks have been horrible as well and we don't expect them to turn that around on the road vs. a Rams team that has historically given the Seahawks problems. We're fading the big 3 point line move and taking the Rams.
Week 12 Picks: Rams +4 (loss).
Week 11: (11/22/09 and 11/23/09) The Raiders opened at +9.5 at home vs. the Bengals. Despite a ton of action on Cinci, the line is going the other way.
Week 11 Picks: Oakland +9 (win).
Week 10: (11/12/09 and 11/16/09) Denver visits Washington on a short week (Broncos played MNF) and travels all the way east which is ROUGH for any team. To make matters worse, Denver appears to be in a decline. Washington has played horrible. Expect a better effort from the Skins this week as we expect them to win straight up. THe line opened at Denver -4.5 and has been bet down to Skins +3.5 and it ain't public money causing that big move that crossed the key number of +4. There's still value at +3.5. Get it before it drops to 3! The other game we like is the Steelers who opened at -6.5 and is not -7. It's not exactly ideal coming off a short week (MNF) however this team is a whole different group with Polamalu back in the lineup. They seem to be clicking on all cylinders and have plenty of motivation to stomp the Bengals.
Week 10 Picks: Redskins +3.5 (win), Steelers -7 (loss).
Week 9: (11/8/09 and 11/9/09) We only like one move this week. The Titans/Niners line opened up with SF being favored by -5.5. It has since been bet down to 4. We think this game will be tight throughout.
Week 9 Picks: Titans +4 (win).
Week 8: (11/1/09 and 11/2/09) Jacksonville/Tennessee total opened up at 43.5. Since then, it's risen a point to 44.5 all the while the public is absolutely hammering the under. Tennessee defense is very pourus and could easily give up 28 points and Tennessee should be able to muster up 3+ scores vs. Jacksonville so we figure there to be some great value on the over. We expect this number to land around 49 or higher. The next play is one you might want to stay away from, but we can't help ourselves. We're fading a half point move in the Denver/Baltimore game where Balt. opened as -4 favorites and are currently -3.5. We really like Baltimore in this spot despite the fact that squares and sharps both are liking Denver here.
Our third line move game and quite possibly the strongest of the weekend is the Rams/Lions game. Detroit opened the game at -5.5 and the line has since moved down to -4. The public is siding with the Lions as well. A few sharps we know are calling STL their game of the week. We think they have a great chance to win straight up as well. We're recommending a 3/4 of a unit on the spread and a quarter unit on the moneyline. There was a huge line move in the NYG/Phil game suggesting that the Giants are getting hammered by sharps and squares alike, however, we're staying way the hell away from that game as anything can happen there. Both teams have been exposed to what their weaknesses are. Good luck everybody!
Week 8 Picks: Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER 44.5 (loss), Baltimore -3.5 (win), St. Louis +4 (win).
Week 7: (10/25/09 and 10/26/09) We like three moves this week. The first is Pittsburgh who opened at -4 and got bumped up to -6, despite the public hitting minnesota big. Second is the Raiders who opened at +7 and got bet down to +6 despite the same scenario, the public is hammering the fav. Lastly, and a tiny move but valuable one, we like the Arizona/NYG total as it opened at 46.5 and has only been bet down to 46 but we expect this to drop another point or more by kickoff.
Week 7 Picks: Pittsburgh -6 (win), Oakland +6 (loss), Arizona/NYG UNDER 46 (win).
Week 6: Houston/Cinci opened up with the Bengals at -4. The line has since gone up to -5. Despite the Texans recent improvement on the gridiron, they're likely to have BIG problems stopping the Bengals run game. The Texans defense isn't playing up to potential either. Bengals should win by a touchdown or more. The only other game involving line moves that we like is the Detroit/Green Bay total. It opened at 48 and is starting to drop (47.5) despite the public slamming the over. The Pack O-Line REALLY sucks which should prevent them from scoring enough to warrant this high of a total.
Week 6 Picks: (10/18/09 and 10/19/09) Bengals -5 (loss) and Lions/Packers UNDER 47.5 (win).
Week 5: Back after kissing our sister last week with a uneventful 1-1 record vs. the spread. The Jaguars opened up as a 3 point favorite on the road at Seattle. The line has since moved 4.5 points now favoring the Seahawks. Hasselbeck is probable and this team is hungry for a win. New England opened as -3.5 favs at Denver and the line has been bet down to Denver +3 and it's not public/square action forcing the move. Look for Denver to keep it rolling here vs. a very solid Patriot team.
Week 5 Picks: (10/11/09 and 10/12/09) Seattle -1.5 (win), Denver +3 (win).
Week 4: Lots of moves this week, but we only "like" two of those. Seattle vs. Indianapolis: The game opened at Indy -10.5 and got bet down a small half point to 10. The public is one siding the Colts giving zero respect to Seattle and backup QB Seneca Wallace. He's not bad at all and Indy is missing the heart of their defense (Bob Sanders/Dwight Freeney). Tiny line move, but we like Seattle. San Diego vs. Pittsburgh: The game opened with the Steelers as a -5 fav. The public is really down on the Steelers after aome sub par showings. Look for Pittsburgh to regroup and beat SD on Sunday.
Week 4 Picks: (10/4/09 and 10/5/09) Seahawks +10 (loss) and Steelers -6.5 (winner).
Week 3: We're pretty pleased with a 3-2 last week despite the Chiefs blowing a lead very late in their 4th quarter. Speaking of the Chiefs, they opened at +9 and have been bet down to +7.5. Good value there as they appear to be a decent defensive team and the Eagles appear to be not so solid on D early on. The Buffalo Bills opened up at +4 and the line quickly bumped up to 6 as the public has fallen in love early with the high flying Saints offense. This is a bad spot for them though on the road vs. a Bills team that is better than many think. We even believe the Bills win straight up here. Next we have the Miami Dolphins who opened up at +6.5. The line has moved a point making Miami +5.5. Still good value as that number covers the key numbers of 3 and 4 (common final score margins). Our one worry here is that Miami played on Monday night and had one less day to prepare for the game, not to mention they had to travel thousands of miles west. Then we factor in some major injuries on San Diego's offensive line. All in all, the Dolphins present some nice value and SHOULD cover. Lastly, the Bengals opened up at +4.5 and the line quickly got hammered down to +3.5. Don't laugh, but we're predicting the Bengals to win this game outright. There were a slew of other moves, but none that had enough positive variables to pull the trigger on.
Week 2 Picks: (9/27/09 and 9/28/09) Buffalo Bills +6 (loss), Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (win), Miami Dolphins +5.5 (loss), KC Chiefs +7.5 (loss).
Week 2: I'm pretty disgusted about our week 1 showing as our MNF under ended up in bad beat fashion. Back at'em this week with some surprising moves starting with Oakland at KC. The Chiefs opened at -4.5 (which they should be) and have dropped down 1.5 points to a -3 spread. This move is public driven and we're fading it (going opposite). Our second game is NE at NYJ. After watching the Patriots vs. the Bills last week it was very apparent that the team either hasn't gelled yet or their just not as good as year's past. The Jets are much improved. This line has taken a massive drop from -6.5 to 3.5 and we still think theres value there with the Jets as the may very well win this game straight up or lose by a field goal. Our third liking is the Bungals. Line opened at +10 and has dropped to 9.5 and even 9 at some places. Cinci isn't as bad as many think. We're fading another move as Philly opened at -1 and the line has changed to N.O. -1. The Eagles will rally around the loss of McNabb and win this game straight up. Lastly Seattle opened as a one point fav at SF and now SF is a favorite all the while the betting public is hammering the Seahawks. We like the Niners to win here.
Week 2 Picks: (9/20/09 and 9/21/09) KC -3 (loss), NYJ +3.5 (win), Cinci +9.5 (win), Philly +1 (loss) and SF -1 (win).
Week 1: There were plenty of line moves this week but it's too early to have a good assessment on things. With that being said, we do like a few small moves, one that went with us and one that went against us. Houston opened as a -4 point favorite over the NYJ. The line has since moved up to 4.5. We like the Texans here. Look for them to be one of the most improved teams in the game this year. Washington opened at +6 and has moved up to +6.5. We'll happily take that extra half point as it gives us three key numbers to play with (3,4,6). Washington has a stout defense and should keep this one close if not straight up. Lastly, the SD/Oak total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43 despite the public hammering the over. We find good value in the UNDER 43 here.
Week 1 Picks: (9/12/09 and 9/13/09) Houston Texans -4.5 (loss), Washington Redskins +6.5 (winner) and SD/Oakland UNDER 43 on MNF (loss).
Super Bowl: There has been no line movement yet and we don't anticipate much either. We're gonna call it good and end the season with a tidy 13-2 mark. We hope you've enjoyed this play and will bookmark us and visit this page next year as we'll surely be back rip-roarin' ready to go come next NFL season!
Our Picks: Passing.
PREVIOUS WEEK'S RESULTS:
NFL Divisional Playoffs: It is with much regret that we're unable to make a line movement play this week. This play has been so hot, it almost seems that everything we touch turns to gold. The truth is though, these plays were made VERY selectively and there just isn't anything to choose from that warrants a play this week based on the moves we've seen. Our only real choice is Philly, but it's our feeling that anything can happen in that game and we're not strong enough on it to call it a play. Enjoy your weekend folks!
Our Picks: Passing.
NFL Playoffs Round 1: The miraculous run continues as we boost our line movement plays up to a lofty 15-2, one of our best runs ever in any year in any sport! This week (NFL Playoffs Round 1) we only like one game, Atlanta vs. Arizona. Despite the helter skelter season that the Cardinals have had, the Cardinals are clearly the better team here. Home field advantage is key here as well. The public is one siding the Falcons while the sharps are loading up on the Cards as evidenced by the 2 point line move from 3 down to 1.
Our Picks: Arizona Cardinals +1 (winner).
Week 17: It's been a solid season tailing "certain" line moves that we have agreed with while tossing others to the side. This week we like a pair of moves. New Orleans opened up as a +3 underdog at home. Their out of the playoffs but oddly enough they're playing some of their best ball at this point in the season and would love nothing more than to be a pain in Carolina's butt. Sharp action has busted the line down to +1.5 and we love it. The other game we like is the Texans who opened up at -1 and have been bet up to -3. Don't laugh, but Houston has played GREAT at home this season. The Bears need this win but won't get it. Many may be wondering why we're not coat-tailing the Arizona Cardinals huge line move. We simply don't trust this team. They may very well blow Seattle out, but again, we just don't trust it. No need for greed eh.
Our Picks: Saints +1.5 (winner) and Houston -3 (winner).
Week 16: Again, not much moving and the games that are don't interest that much with exception of the Jets/Seahawks game. The Jets opened at -5 and have been bet down to -3.5.
Our Picks: Seattle +3.5 (winner)
Week 12: There is no line movement this week worth playing.
Week 11: PASSING.
Week 10: Baltimore vs. Houston. This game started out with the Ravens as +2 underdogs and there's been a 3 point move making them a -1 favorite now. The Ravens defense, despite having some key personel out, should be a huge hurdle for Texans QB Sage Rosenfels as Sage seems to make bad plays when the heat is on and you can bet they'll be bringing it.
Our Picks: Baltimore -1 (winner).
Week 9: Sorry about passing last week! Most of our office has been down with the death flu. TONS of line moves this week in the NFL but we're not on much of it. Tennessee opened "with a bit too much respect vs. the Packers at -5.5 and has been bet down to -3.5. The Miami/Denver OVER 50 is still looking tasty after a 2.5 move from 47.5 to 50 despite the public one siding the under to the tune of 60%. Dallas/NYG opened with the Gmen being a -7 pt fav and quickly moved to -8.5 and for good reason. They Gmen should win easily. lastly, NE visits Indy in which the Colts should be back on track and will show that the -5.5 to -6.5 line move was justified.
Our Picks: Packers +3.5 (win), Miami/Denver OVER 50 (loss), Giants -8.5 (win) and Colts -6.5 (loss).
Week 8: Passed.
Our Picks: Passed.
Week 7: These picks are on an unbelievable run! Hopefully the good luck continues to roll our way!
Our Picks: Bills -1 (winner!).
Week 6: Passing.
Week 5: Looking to keep our record spotless here as we've had a great run being selective on which line moves to hit!
Our Picks: Dolphins +6.5 (winner), TB +3 (push) and Arizona -1 (winner).
Week 4: We scorched the books with a solid 2-0 showing in Week 3. This week we are in a very rare situation in which we are FADING all 3 of the line moves we're reporting! Tampa Bay opened as a -2.5 fav and has been bet down to -1. As far as we can tell, this is square money and our handicapping analysis shows that Tampa Bay wins this game by a field goal or more. The second move we're fading is the Atlanta/Carolina game. The public has fallen in love with young Matt Ryan and is overvaluing him. The line opened with the Panthers as a well deserved -9 point favorite. They can currently be had at -6.5 and are worth evey penny of it. Lastly, New Orleans opened as a -6.5 favorite. They have injuries all over the place and it could surely be understood how this line would drop, but by a full two points and to SF? SF got beat by a dismal Arizona team at home, beat up a much injured Seattle team on the road and now all of a sudden their worthy of being a short dog against a passing team which should pick apart their weak secondary? We don't buy it. Injuries and all, we're fading the move and sticking with the Saints at -4.5. Good luck!
Our Picks: Tampa Bay -1 (win), Carolina -6.5 (win) and New Orleans -4.5 (win).
Week 3: Not much really moving as of late Friday evening 9/19/08. We see that the Falcons opened at -4 and have been moved to -6 because nobody believes KC can score. We agree. Another interesting move was Jacksonville moving from +6 to +5.5. The Colts are a good go against right now as their not playing up to their potential so we'll call it good with that as our second line move play for week 4.
Our Picks: Atalnta -6 (win) and Jacksonville +5.5 (win).
Week 2: Passed.
Week 1: We're not very fond of the opening weekend's line movement. The only gem we are able to spot and feel confident about is the UNDER in the Chiefs/Patriots game. It opened at 48 and has quickly made it's way down to 44. We still like it at 44 as we're baffled as to how the Chiefs are going to get any kind of scoring umph.
Our Pick: Take the UNDER 44 in the KC/New England game. (winner)
2007-2008 Record: 23-13-1 +8.70 units
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