NFL Line Movement

Each week of the NFL football season we track major line movement and report it right here on this page. In doing so, we'll sort through and post the reason if we're able to determine it as well as posting if it's sharp action/wiseguy money that's creating the change in the point spread. At times, we may make picks based on the change in odds or spread. We'll keep an ATS record of these selections as well to track how they do.

Note: We consider any spread having changes in which the number moves onto or off of the number "3" major.

Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a play you may have been considering.

Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Friday 6PM EST.)

Super Bowl: NYG vs New England. This line opened with the Patriots as high as -14 at some online sportsbooksl. It is currently sitting at -12 and it's public money that's responsible for the 2 point drop as the public is one siding the NYG because they've been hot. We like the Pats though, who should thrive in a warm climate like Arizona.

Current Picks: Patriots -12.

Previous Week's Picks:

NFL Divisional Playoff Games: NYG vs Dallas. This line opened with Dallas as a -7.5 favorite. The public is hammering the Giants. We disagree and think Dallas covers this one easily.

Current Picks: Dallas -7. (loss)

Wildcard Games: NYG vs. Tampa Bay. This game started with TB as a -1 point favorite. The current line is -2.5 and pushing 3 at other books. TB is a great value play here.

Current Wildcard Game Picks: Buccaneers -2.5 (loss).

Week 17: Carolina/Tampa Bay has gone from a pickem to Carolina -2.5. This move is based on the thought that TB will be resting starters. Carolina has been playing good ball and should win SU here if TB rests their 1st stringers. Jacksonville visits Houston in a game which doesn't matter to them. The line has moved from -4 to -6. We'd have played this game up to -9.5 as Jacksonville is simply out to "not get injured" before the playoffs. New Orleans comes into Chicago as a -3 fav. The line has moved down a point. N.O. needs this game but this is the Bears Super Bowl. Bears aren't playing bad ball. Surely worth a shot at home getting points. Pittsburgh opened vs. Baltimore as a -3.5 fav. They will surely be resting their starters. There are other line moves but they don't interest us!

Current Week 17 Picks: Carolina -2.5 (Winner), Houston -6 (Winner), Bears +2 (Winner), Baltimore +3 (Winner).

Week 16: Cleve/Cinci total started at 47.5 and moved to 43.5 due to weather. GB/Chi total moved from 39.5 to 32.5. Favre says worst weather he's ever thrown a football in. NYG/Buffalo dropped from 3 to 2.5. Wrong team favored.

Current Week 16 Picks: Cleve/Cinci UNDER 43.5 (Winner), GB/Chi Under 32.5 (loss), Bills +2.5 (loss).

Week 15: There is only one game with any significant line movement this week in which we have interest. The Jets play New England this week in what should be some horrible weather. We'll happily take our chances with a 3 score lead from the beginning!

Current Week 15 Picks: Jets +21. (Winner)

Week 14: There is only one game with any significant line movement this week in which we have interest. Pittsburgh plays New England this week and the line opened at NE -13. It is currently down to -10.5 and interestingly enough the public is who is responsible for pushing this line down. We conversely, think the Pats blow them out..

Current Week 14 Picks: Patriots -10.5 (Winner).

Week 13: Not much worth mentioning this week. Jax visits Indy in which the line has moved from -7 to -6.5 and we believe this to be public money doing so. We like Indy here. The Chargers opened at -4 vs. the Chiefs and has moved to -6. We love the Chiefs in this spot. Many totals moved quite a bit, but with weather questions we're going to pass on them.

Current Week 13 Picks: Indy -6.5 (loss), KC +6 (loss).

Week 12: We start out on the fade this week taking the Eagles at +24 at New England. This is one of the biggest point spreads EVER to be applied to an NFL game. The bookies are tired of getting pasted by square action constantly backing the Patriots and are out for blood this week with this fat line. To our surprise, the public is once again backing the Pats. They may very well cover this enormous line but there is enough value with the Eagles at +24 to warrant an underdog play here. Other than that, there really hasn't been many moves this week other than a few half point situations that aren't worth mentioning. Good luck and Happy Holidays!

Current Week 12 Picks: Eagles +24.

Week 11: Oakland vs. Minnesota, Cleveland vs. Baltimore and New Orleans vs. Houston.

Current Week 11 Picks: The opening line in the Oak/Min game started with the Vikes opening as a six point favorite and has been bet down to -4.5. It appears that sharp action is moving the line as only 47% of the public is backing the Raiders. With Adrian Peterson out and a somewhat ineffective T. Jackson at QB, one has to wonder how Minny will get their scoring done. With 4.5 covering two key numbers (3 and 4) we love the Raiders to cover in this spot despite the fact that they may not win straight up. (loss)

The second game we like is the Browns at Ravens. Cleveland opened at -3 and the line quickly moved down to -2.5 and it wasn't the squares making it happen, it is confirmed wiseguy action. The public hates the Ravens this week and are only supporting them to the tune of 30% of all action placed on this game. (loss) The third game we're playing relative to line moves is not for the feint of heart. The Saints who are playing some decent ball opened at -1 vs. the Texans. The line now currently sits at Houston -1.5 who has stolen the favorite role. This too was a move produced by sharp action as the public is one siding the Saints to the tune of 69%. We'll give the Texans a lunch money bet here despite a bit of fear going against a somewhat decent Saints team. (Winner) That's all folks. And yes, we did see the Lions start out as a -1 fav. and witness the line move 3.5 points with the Giants now being the favorite. Too many unknown variables though, especially with injuries so we're laying off. Good luck this week.

Week 9 and 10: Passed

Week 8: Not really much doing this week. New Orleans opened as a three point fav. AT San Fran. and the line was quickly bet down to 2.5 all the doing of the public. We like the Niners to win and cover the game.

Current Week 8 Picks: SF +2.5.

Week 7: There was some big line movement this week but not much value after the fact. The only game we like that had movement is the St. Louis/Seattle game in which we're riding the Rams at +8.5 (loss).

Current Week 7 Picks: Rams +8.5.

Week 6: Houston at Jacksonville: Public all over Houston forced this line move. Big value here with the Jags at home. Philly at NYJ: This is the same Eagles team that got whipped by the NYG recently. Has the public forgotten? Philly is getting one sided here which has forced the spread to move off of the three to -3.5. The Jets aren't a great team but this is a great spot for them to snatch a win vs. a medicore overrated Eagles team. St. Louis at Baltimore: The Rams are decimated by injuries. How are they going to move the ball vs. the Ravens D? This one spells blowout. Tennessee at Tampa Bay: Call us crazy but TB is one of the better teams in the NFL and still getting no respect. The public is one siding with Tenn. and the line shot up from -1.5 to 3. That ought to tell you something. Sharp action on the Bucs! Lastly, we like New England to cover vs. Dallas this week. The line opened at NE -4 and shot up to 6 before being bet down to -5.5. We hate to side with the public but until the Patriots show us otherwise, we're going to keep betting them home or road until they slow down. This may be the best mechanically tuned/chemistry NFL team we've ever witnessed. In addition, the Cowboys defense is a joke.

Current Week 6 Picks: Jax -6.5 (Winner), NYJ +3.5 (loss), Baltimore -9.5 (Winner), Tampa Bay -3 (push) and New England -5.5 (Winner).

Week 5: There was huge line movement in KC as the Chiefs opened at -3.5 and the move has swayed to Jacksonville -2 however we don't feel there's enough substance behind the move to make a play. The only real value we found was fading the movement in the Washington game where they opened at -4.5 and got bumped down to -3.5. We're buying off the hook and making a play on Washington at -3 who we think will win by a touchdown or more. It takes defense to win on the road and Detroit simply doesn't have it. Look for Jason Campbell to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns (or more) despite missing Santana Moss. We do like one other play as well. Tennessee opened up at -9 vs. Atlanta and the line has since been bet down a point. We love the Falcons in this spot getting +8.
Current Week 5 Picks: Washington -3 and Atlanta +8.

Our Week 4 Predictions: Back after another nice week going 2-1. In week 4, currently 9 out of 14 games have had point spread movement. This surely doesn't mean that we're going to hit them all though! In fact, we like to play as few as possible and only rear our heads where we can clearly define that the value is on our side. The first game we like is Oakland at Miami. The Phins opened at -5 which instantly had us scratching our heads and then quickly moved to -4. We think Oakland has a legit shot of winning straigt up here so we're going to happily grab the +4 which covers two key numbers (3,4.) The second game we like is SF who opened at +1 and is now getting 2 points at home vs. Seattle. SF beat Seattle twice last year and isn't as bad as most people think. Conversely, Seattle isn't as good as most people think, especially away from home. So in summary, we're fading the line move here rather than riding it. It's public driven so no biggie. Third, we like the NYG getting +2.5 at home vs. the Eagles. Philly is overrated and has key injuries. This barely qualifies as a line move as some books opened at 2.5 while others opened at 3. It can be had at both, so we'll lump it into these plays and call it a line move. Next, we like the total in the Chi/Det game. It opened at 44 and has moved up to 45 while the squares are hammering the under. Looks like a solid bet to us. Good luck!

Our Week 4 Predictions: Oakland +4 (Winner), SF +2 (loss), NYG +2.5 (Winner) and Chicago/Detroit OVER 45 (Winner.)

Week 3: As with college this week, none of the major line moves really thrill us. We were tempted to buy into Indy moving from -4.5 to -6 but laying points on the road isn't really our style. No way do we touch SD and their 1.5 point move vs. the Packers because as far as we're concerned the Pack is playing some some of the best ball in the league. No value here. The Pats went from -14 to -17.5 but what is their motivation to smoke the lowly Bills? We can't take the points either because the Bills really do stink. They'll get better as the year goes along but their too unpredictable to call in this situation. All's not lost though. We are playing some games that had movement. KC opened at -3 and has dropped to -2.5 vs. Minny who is likely to play their backup QB. The public are hammering the Vikings forgetting that Arrowhead Stadium is a real bitch to play at. KC is gonna give the purple people eaters an overdose of Larry Johnson and will likely win ugly. We love the Chiefs here as we fade the line move. It's public driven, so no worries. We side with the sharps as they are in love with Jacksonville this week while the squares are hitting Denver. The big question here is how is Denver going to stop Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor? Their not! Keep in mind that Jason Elam has bailed the Broncs out two weeks in a row. Denver is not clicking on all cylinders and this is a perfect spot for a hard nosed Jag team to come into mile high and sneak out with a win. We're fading another move here as Carolina opened at -3.5 and has moved to -4. We'll take the Falcons here who are hungry for a win vs. a Carolina team that really doesn't have much to be proud of so far this season. We love the fact that the public is hammering the Panthers to the tune of 78.4% as well, which tells us that the move was created by square action.

Our Week 3 Predictions: Jacksonville +3 (Winner), Kansas City -2.5 (Winner) and Atlanta +4 (loss). Good luck!

Week 2: Very little movement in sides this week. Nothing worth coat-tailng there. Not much going on with totals either however we do like one: The UNDER 46 is worth a play in the Indy/Tennessee game. The game openeed at 47 and has moved down to 46 despite the public hammering the over. A sure indication that the under is getting wiseguy action. (Winner)

Week 1: Not a whole heck of a lot going on line-move-wise in the opening week of the NFL season. We've seen the total in the Det/Oak game move from 36 to 39 which we'd still play at the 39 (Winner). We look for this game to go into the high 40's as we don't see either team stopping each other. The Chiefs/Texans line opened at a pick and has moved to Texans -3 which we're on as well (Winner). One of the stronger moves of the week includes the Philly/GB total which has dropped from 44 to 42 and may drop even more. (Winner) Lock in that under asap! Atlanta/Minny has gone from Minny at a pickem to -3 but there's too many unknowns to follow this move. Good luck!

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