Each week of the NFL football season we track major line movement and report it right here on this page. In doing so, we'll sort through and post the reason if we're able to determine it as well as posting if it's sharp action/wiseguy money that's creating the change in the point spread. At times, we may make picks based on the change in odds or spread. We'll keep an ATS record of these selections as well to track how they do.
Note: We consider any spread having changes in which the number moves onto or off of the number "3" major.
Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a play you may have been considering.
Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Friday 6PM EST.)
Week 1: (9/9 through 9/13) To be announced by Friday of Week 1!
Previous Year's Picks
Super Bowl XLIV: (2/7) The SB 44 line opened with the Colts as a 4 point favorite. It has since gone up to -5. We're fading this move as we believe the Saints offense is back on track and that their defense is GROSSLY underrated. Look for the Saints to not ony cover, but to win by a field goal or more straight up!
Super Bowl Line Move Picks: New Orleans +5 (WIN).
Previous Week's Results
NFC Championship: (1/24) We just like one again this weekend and we're going against the grain. New Orleans opened as a -4 favorite at home vs. the Vikings and the line has dropped to -3.5 which is alright with us because we like the Saints to win by a touchdown or more!
Conferencej Championships Line Move Picks: New Orleans -3.5 (loss).
Divisional Playoffs: (1/16 through 1/17) We just like one move this weekend. The Dallas/Minnesota TOTAL opened up at 47.5 and has moved down to 45.5. Sharp action has drivn the line down as the general betting public is hitting the over to the tune of 60%. Both teams have tough defenses and we feel that this game is likely to land in the mid to high thirties with the Vikings winning by 10 points or more.
Divisional Playoff Line Move Picks: Dallas/Minneota UNDER 45.5 (win).
Wildcard Weekend: (1/10/10) The Philly/Dallas game opened with the Pokes as a -4 fav. It's since been bet down to -3.5. We're fading that move (mostly public driven) and taking Dallas and buying the 1/2 point off to make them -3. The other line move we like is the Balt/NE game where the Pats opened as -4. The Ravens are getting sharp action and the line has moved down to +3.5 and might even be 3 by gametime Sunday.
Wildcard Weekend Picks: Cowboys -3 -135 (win), Baltimore +3.5 (win).
Week 17: (1/3/10) We like three games this week despite line movement happening across the board. The first game we like is Washington at San Diego where the Chargers opened as -6.5 favs and it's currently down to -3.5. Yes, the Skins have sucked huge wanker this year, BUT, San Diego doesn't really have anything to play for and is likely to rest their starters MOST of the game so expect Washington to cover the spread here. The next game we like is the Titans vs. Seahawks. The line has only dropped a half point to 4.5, however, we like Seattle here as they're not a bad home team and +4.5 covers TWO key numbers (3,4). It's not a lock by any means, but offers some decent value. The last game we like is the KC/Denver UNDER. It opened at 39 and has moved down to 38. Broncos WR Brandon Marshall won't play in this game and he was the Broncos only true receving threat. KC has issues moving the ball. Some decent value here with the UNDER.
Week 16 Picks: Washington +3.5 (win), Seattle +4.5 (win), KC/Denver UNDER 38 (loss).
Week 16: (12/25/09 and 12/28/09) Passed.
Week 16 Picks: TBA.
Week 15: (12/17/09 and 12/21/09) Pittsburgh opened as a -1 favorite and the line has moved to -3 despite the public one siding the Packers.
Week 15 Picks: Pittsburgh -3 (loss).
Week 14: (12/10/09 and 12/14/09) The NYJ opened up as a -3 favorite at Tampa and the line has moved to -4. We don't usually fade line moves, however, we believe TB either wins SU or loses by 3 or less. Jet QB Kellen Clemens proves to be inadequate to get the W on the road. Our second game is also a fade of a line move, GB at Chicago. The line opened with the road team Packers being favored by -3 points. The line has since moved to -4. As you probably saw on Thursday night in the Steelers/Browns game, ANYTHING can happen in a division rivalry game. This is another situation where the Bears very well may lose but by 3 or less which would give us a cover.
Week 14 Picks: TB +4 (loss) and Chicago +4 (loss).
Week 13: (12/3/09 and 12/7/09) Phil vs. Atl opened with the Eagles at -6. The line has since been bet down to +4 and it's not public money forcing the move. We like ATL to possibly win SU here. Seattle opened as a one point fav at home vs. the Niners. The line has since moved to SF -1 and we're fading this line move thinking that Seattle handles them at home where they play much better.
Week 13 Picks: Atlanta +4 (loss), Seattle +1 (win).
Week 12: (11/26/09 and 11/30/09) Seattle opened as a -1 favorite AT St. Louis. Much is being made of Bulger being out and the Rams being BAD. The Seahawks have been horrible as well and we don't expect them to turn that around on the road vs. a Rams team that has historically given the Seahawks problems. We're fading the big 3 point line move and taking the Rams.
Week 12 Picks: Rams +4 (loss).
Week 11: (11/22/09 and 11/23/09) The Raiders opened at +9.5 at home vs. the Bengals. Despite a ton of action on Cinci, the line is going the other way.
Week 11 Picks: Oakland +9 (win).
Week 10: (11/12/09 and 11/16/09) Denver visits Washington on a short week (Broncos played MNF) and travels all the way east which is ROUGH for any team. To make matters worse, Denver appears to be in a decline. Washington has played horrible. Expect a better effort from the Skins this week as we expect them to win straight up. THe line opened at Denver -4.5 and has been bet down to Skins +3.5 and it ain't public money causing that big move that crossed the key number of +4. There's still value at +3.5. Get it before it drops to 3! The other game we like is the Steelers who opened at -6.5 and is not -7. It's not exactly ideal coming off a short week (MNF) however this team is a whole different group with Polamalu back in the lineup. They seem to be clicking on all cylinders and have plenty of motivation to stomp the Bengals.
Week 10 Picks: Redskins +3.5 (win), Steelers -7 (loss).
Week 9: (11/8/09 and 11/9/09) We only like one move this week. The Titans/Niners line opened up with SF being favored by -5.5. It has since been bet down to 4. We think this game will be tight throughout.
Week 9 Picks: Titans +4 (win).
Week 8: (11/1/09 and 11/2/09) Jacksonville/Tennessee total opened up at 43.5. Since then, it's risen a point to 44.5 all the while the public is absolutely hammering the under. Tennessee defense is very pourus and could easily give up 28 points and Tennessee should be able to muster up 3+ scores vs. Jacksonville so we figure there to be some great value on the over. We expect this number to land around 49 or higher. The next play is one you might want to stay away from, but we can't help ourselves. We're fading a half point move in the Denver/Baltimore game where Balt. opened as -4 favorites and are currently -3.5. We really like Baltimore in this spot despite the fact that squares and sharps both are liking Denver here.
Our third line move game and quite possibly the strongest of the weekend is the Rams/Lions game. Detroit opened the game at -5.5 and the line has since moved down to -4. The public is siding with the Lions as well. A few sharps we know are calling STL their game of the week. We think they have a great chance to win straight up as well. We're recommending a 3/4 of a unit on the spread and a quarter unit on the moneyline. There was a huge line move in the NYG/Phil game suggesting that the Giants are getting hammered by sharps and squares alike, however, we're staying way the hell away from that game as anything can happen there. Both teams have been exposed to what their weaknesses are. Good luck everybody!
Week 8 Picks: Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER 44.5 (loss), Baltimore -3.5 (win), St. Louis +4 (win).
Week 7: (10/25/09 and 10/26/09) We like three moves this week. The first is Pittsburgh who opened at -4 and got bumped up to -6, despite the public hitting minnesota big. Second is the Raiders who opened at +7 and got bet down to +6 despite the same scenario, the public is hammering the fav. Lastly, and a tiny move but valuable one, we like the Arizona/NYG total as it opened at 46.5 and has only been bet down to 46 but we expect this to drop another point or more by kickoff.
Week 7 Picks: Pittsburgh -6 (win), Oakland +6 (loss), Arizona/NYG UNDER 46 (win).
Week 6: Houston/Cinci opened up with the Bengals at -4. The line has since gone up to -5. Despite the Texans recent improvement on the gridiron, they're likely to have BIG problems stopping the Bengals run game. The Texans defense isn't playing up to potential either. Bengals should win by a touchdown or more. The only other game involving line moves that we like is the Detroit/Green Bay total. It opened at 48 and is starting to drop (47.5) despite the public slamming the over. The Pack O-Line REALLY sucks which should prevent them from scoring enough to warrant this high of a total.
Week 6 Picks: (10/18/09 and 10/19/09) Bengals -5 (loss) and Lions/Packers UNDER 47.5 (win).
Week 5: Back after kissing our sister last week with a uneventful 1-1 record vs. the spread. The Jaguars opened up as a 3 point favorite on the road at Seattle. The line has since moved 4.5 points now favoring the Seahawks. Hasselbeck is probable and this team is hungry for a win. New England opened as -3.5 favs at Denver and the line has been bet down to Denver +3 and it's not public/square action forcing the move. Look for Denver to keep it rolling here vs. a very solid Patriot team.
Week 5 Picks: (10/11/09 and 10/12/09) Seattle -1.5 (win), Denver +3 (win).
Week 4: Lots of moves this week, but we only "like" two of those. Seattle vs. Indianapolis: The game opened at Indy -10.5 and got bet down a small half point to 10. The public is one siding the Colts giving zero respect to Seattle and backup QB Seneca Wallace. He's not bad at all and Indy is missing the heart of their defense (Bob Sanders/Dwight Freeney). Tiny line move, but we like Seattle. San Diego vs. Pittsburgh: The game opened with the Steelers as a -5 fav. The public is really down on the Steelers after aome sub par showings. Look for Pittsburgh to regroup and beat SD on Sunday.
Week 4 Picks: (10/4/09 and 10/5/09) Seahawks +10 (loss) and Steelers -6.5 (winner).
Week 3: We're pretty pleased with a 3-2 last week despite the Chiefs blowing a lead very late in their 4th quarter. Speaking of the Chiefs, they opened at +9 and have been bet down to +7.5. Good value there as they appear to be a decent defensive team and the Eagles appear to be not so solid on D early on. The Buffalo Bills opened up at +4 and the line quickly bumped up to 6 as the public has fallen in love early with the high flying Saints offense. This is a bad spot for them though on the road vs. a Bills team that is better than many think. We even believe the Bills win straight up here. Next we have the Miami Dolphins who opened up at +6.5. The line has moved a point making Miami +5.5. Still good value as that number covers the key numbers of 3 and 4 (common final score margins). Our one worry here is that Miami played on Monday night and had one less day to prepare for the game, not to mention they had to travel thousands of miles west. Then we factor in some major injuries on San Diego's offensive line. All in all, the Dolphins present some nice value and SHOULD cover. Lastly, the Bengals opened up at +4.5 and the line quickly got hammered down to +3.5. Don't laugh, but we're predicting the Bengals to win this game outright. There were a slew of other moves, but none that had enough positive variables to pull the trigger on.
Week 2 Picks: (9/27/09 and 9/28/09) Buffalo Bills +6 (loss), Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (win), Miami Dolphins +5.5 (loss), KC Chiefs +7.5 (loss).
Week 2: I'm pretty disgusted about our week 1 showing as our MNF under ended up in bad beat fashion. Back at'em this week with some surprising moves starting with Oakland at KC. The Chiefs opened at -4.5 (which they should be) and have dropped down 1.5 points to a -3 spread. This move is public driven and we're fading it (going opposite). Our second game is NE at NYJ. After watching the Patriots vs. the Bills last week it was very apparent that the team either hasn't gelled yet or their just not as good as year's past. The Jets are much improved. This line has taken a massive drop from -6.5 to 3.5 and we still think theres value there with the Jets as the may very well win this game straight up or lose by a field goal. Our third liking is the Bungals. Line opened at +10 and has dropped to 9.5 and even 9 at some places. Cinci isn't as bad as many think. We're fading another move as Philly opened at -1 and the line has changed to N.O. -1. The Eagles will rally around the loss of McNabb and win this game straight up. Lastly Seattle opened as a one point fav at SF and now SF is a favorite all the while the betting public is hammering the Seahawks. We like the Niners to win here.
Week 2 Picks: (9/20/09 and 9/21/09) KC -3 (loss), NYJ +3.5 (win), Cinci +9.5 (win), Philly +1 (loss) and SF -1 (win).
Week 1: There were plenty of line moves this week but it's too early to have a good assessment on things. With that being said, we do like a few small moves, one that went with us and one that went against us. Houston opened as a -4 point favorite over the NYJ. The line has since moved up to 4.5. We like the Texans here. Look for them to be one of the most improved teams in the game this year. Washington opened at +6 and has moved up to +6.5. We'll happily take that extra half point as it gives us three key numbers to play with (3,4,6). Washington has a stout defense and should keep this one close if not straight up. Lastly, the SD/Oak total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43 despite the public hammering the over. We find good value in the UNDER 43 here.
Week 1 Picks: (9/12/09 and 9/13/09) Houston Texans -4.5 (loss), Washington Redskins +6.5 (winner) and SD/Oakland UNDER 43 on MNF (loss).
Super Bowl: There has been no line movement yet and we don't anticipate much either. We're gonna call it good and end the season with a tidy 13-2 mark. We hope you've enjoyed this play and will bookmark us and visit this page next year as we'll surely be back rip-roarin' ready to go come next NFL season!
Our Picks: Passing.
PREVIOUS WEEK'S RESULTS:
NFL Divisional Playoffs: It is with much regret that we're unable to make a line movement play this week. This play has been so hot, it almost seems that everything we touch turns to gold. The truth is though, these plays were made VERY selectively and there just isn't anything to choose from that warrants a play this week based on the moves we've seen. Our only real choice is Philly, but it's our feeling that anything can happen in that game and we're not strong enough on it to call it a play. Enjoy your weekend folks!
Our Picks: Passing.
NFL Playoffs Round 1: The miraculous run continues as we boost our line movement plays up to a lofty 15-2, one of our best runs ever in any year in any sport! This week (NFL Playoffs Round 1) we only like one game, Atlanta vs. Arizona. Despite the helter skelter season that the Cardinals have had, the Cardinals are clearly the better team here. Home field advantage is key here as well. The public is one siding the Falcons while the sharps are loading up on the Cards as evidenced by the 2 point line move from 3 down to 1.
Our Picks: Arizona Cardinals +1 (winner).
Week 17: It's been a solid season tailing "certain" line moves that we have agreed with while tossing others to the side. This week we like a pair of moves. New Orleans opened up as a +3 underdog at home. Their out of the playoffs but oddly enough they're playing some of their best ball at this point in the season and would love nothing more than to be a pain in Carolina's butt. Sharp action has busted the line down to +1.5 and we love it. The other game we like is the Texans who opened up at -1 and have been bet up to -3. Don't laugh, but Houston has played GREAT at home this season. The Bears need this win but won't get it. Many may be wondering why we're not coat-tailing the Arizona Cardinals huge line move. We simply don't trust this team. They may very well blow Seattle out, but again, we just don't trust it. No need for greed eh.
Our Picks: Saints +1.5 (winner) and Houston -3 (winner).
Week 16: Again, not much moving and the games that are don't interest that much with exception of the Jets/Seahawks game. The Jets opened at -5 and have been bet down to -3.5.
Our Picks: Seattle +3.5 (winner)
Week 12: There is no line movement this week worth playing.
Week 11: PASSING.
Week 10: Baltimore vs. Houston. This game started out with the Ravens as +2 underdogs and there's been a 3 point move making them a -1 favorite now. The Ravens defense, despite having some key personel out, should be a huge hurdle for Texans QB Sage Rosenfels as Sage seems to make bad plays when the heat is on and you can bet they'll be bringing it.
Our Picks: Baltimore -1 (winner).
Week 9: Sorry about passing last week! Most of our office has been down with the death flu. TONS of line moves this week in the NFL but we're not on much of it. Tennessee opened "with a bit too much respect vs. the Packers at -5.5 and has been bet down to -3.5. The Miami/Denver OVER 50 is still looking tasty after a 2.5 move from 47.5 to 50 despite the public one siding the under to the tune of 60%. Dallas/NYG opened with the Gmen being a -7 pt fav and quickly moved to -8.5 and for good reason. They Gmen should win easily. lastly, NE visits Indy in which the Colts should be back on track and will show that the -5.5 to -6.5 line move was justified.
Our Picks: Packers +3.5 (win), Miami/Denver OVER 50 (loss), Giants -8.5 (win) and Colts -6.5 (loss).
Week 8: Passed.
Our Picks: Passed.
Week 7: These picks are on an unbelievable run! Hopefully the good luck continues to roll our way!
Our Picks: Bills -1 (winner!).
Week 6: Passing.
Week 5: Looking to keep our record spotless here as we've had a great run being selective on which line moves to hit!
Our Picks: Dolphins +6.5 (winner), TB +3 (push) and Arizona -1 (winner).
Week 4: We scorched the books with a solid 2-0 showing in Week 3. This week we are in a very rare situation in which we are FADING all 3 of the line moves we're reporting! Tampa Bay opened as a -2.5 fav and has been bet down to -1. As far as we can tell, this is square money and our handicapping analysis shows that Tampa Bay wins this game by a field goal or more. The second move we're fading is the Atlanta/Carolina game. The public has fallen in love with young Matt Ryan and is overvaluing him. The line opened with the Panthers as a well deserved -9 point favorite. They can currently be had at -6.5 and are worth evey penny of it. Lastly, New Orleans opened as a -6.5 favorite. They have injuries all over the place and it could surely be understood how this line would drop, but by a full two points and to SF? SF got beat by a dismal Arizona team at home, beat up a much injured Seattle team on the road and now all of a sudden their worthy of being a short dog against a passing team which should pick apart their weak secondary? We don't buy it. Injuries and all, we're fading the move and sticking with the Saints at -4.5. Good luck!
Our Picks: Tampa Bay -1 (win), Carolina -6.5 (win) and New Orleans -4.5 (win).
Week 3: Not much really moving as of late Friday evening 9/19/08. We see that the Falcons opened at -4 and have been moved to -6 because nobody believes KC can score. We agree. Another interesting move was Jacksonville moving from +6 to +5.5. The Colts are a good go against right now as their not playing up to their potential so we'll call it good with that as our second line move play for week 4.
Our Picks: Atalnta -6 (win) and Jacksonville +5.5 (win).
Week 2: Passed.
Week 1: We're not very fond of the opening weekend's line movement. The only gem we are able to spot and feel confident about is the UNDER in the Chiefs/Patriots game. It opened at 48 and has quickly made it's way down to 44. We still like it at 44 as we're baffled as to how the Chiefs are going to get any kind of scoring umph.
Our Pick: Take the UNDER 44 in the KC/New England game. (winner)
2007-2008 Record: 23-13-1 +8.70 units
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