There are many reasons for line movement in NFL point spreads. These reasons include but are not limited to: injuries to key player(s), one sided action in which the bookies need to move the line in order to make an attempt at receiving balanced action, smart money (wiseguy plays), changes in weather and more. Just because a line moves, doesn't mean that it's a game worth betting on. That's where we come in. We pick these games apart, determine if there's value and then either pounce or pass on it. As you can see from looking at our past results (5 straight profitable seasons), our formula for picking these games is a big moneymaker.
Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a dead money play you may have been considering.
Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Friday 6PM EST.) and line move plays can come in as late as minutes prior to gametime. It's highly recommended that you check this page multiple times per week so that you don't miss out on any of these golden picks!
Week 7: (10/16 through 10/20) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +4 home dogs vs. Cleveland. The line has moved up to +5.5 due to the public hammering the Browns. The Browns are missing their Center, which is HUGE. Jacksonville has quietly been improving and may very well win this game.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (pending).
Week 6: (10/9 through 10/13) The Green Bay Packers opened as 3.5 point favorites and despite sportsbook action of 71% on the Pack the line has moved down to 3 at the square books and 2.5 at some of the sharper books.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami +3 (push)
Week 5: (10/2 through 10/6) The St. Louis Rams opened as +8 road underdogs at Philly. The line has dropped to +7 despite only 29% backing the Rams. Some online sportsbooks have even dropped the line to +6.5. The Rams have a great defensive front and Philly is weak. Bad matchup for the Eagles and the Rams may potentially win this game straight up. The Tennessee Titans opened up as suspect -1 favorites at home vs. a Browns team that is starting to turn some heads. The line has gone up a half point despite almost nobody betting on Tennessee, who has looked absolutely horrible at times. Our take here is that the Titans will win the ground game and time of possession battle as well as give Cleveland's passing game some trouble. The New York Giants opened up as -3 home favs and have been bet up to -4 and for good reason! Atlanta has, does and will suck on the road this season. Their secondary resembles a wet paper bag and their hitting the Gmen at the wrong time as Eli and Crew are starting to hit their stride after some early season timing issues and young players not being familiar with the playbook and some of Eli's audibles. The Buffalo Bills opened up as +7 road dogs at Detroit. The line has dropped to +6.5 despite only 38% betting on the Bills. Buffalo is NOT a bad team! Starting QB Manuel is now on the bench and Kyle Orton will be leading the troops. Many of the team's receivers have been quoted as saying Orton gets the ball out faster and his veteran presence suits the team better. Furthermore, Lions WR Calvin Johnson is questionable for the game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills won this game straight up.
Week 5 NFL Line Move Plays: Rams +7 (win), Tennessee Titans -1.5 (loss), New York Giants -4 (win), Buffalo Bills +6.5 (win).
Week 4: (9/25 through 9/29) The NYG opened up as +4.5 road dogs at Washington. The line quickly moved down to +3.5 despite only 37% backing the GMEN. Wash. is really banged up including losing their top CB and Safety to long term injuries and there's even more. I like NY to win this game straight up.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: NYG +3.5 (win). No Week 4 Sunday games fit our paramters.
Week 3: (9/18 through 9/20) The Bills opened as -1 home favs. vs. the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are a good team, but might be getting a little too much respect after dumping Seattle last week. This Buffalo team is good and we make them a -6 favorite. The New York Giants opened up as +2.5 home favs vs. the Houston Texans and the line has moved 3.5 points, with the GMen now being the team favored to win, despite only receiving 42% of the public's backing. Houston has beaten up a Redskins team that played poorly and the same can be said about their win last week over the Raiders. They'll get their first test this week at NY. The MNF between Chi/NY opened up as a pickem and has moved to NYJ -2.5 despite the J-E-T-S only receiving 35% of the public's wagering consideration.
Week 3 NFL Line Move Plays: Buffalo Bills -2 (loss), NYG -2 (win).
Week 2: 9/11 through 9/14) The Panthers opened up as -3 point home favs vs. Detroit. The line has dropped to -2.5 due to 62% of the public backing the Lions. It is my opinion that the Lions are average at best and the Giants made them look better than what they really are. I expect a stingy Panthers defense to stand strong and for Carolina to win by a very slim margin, such as a field goal. The New England Patriots opened up as -3 point road favs at Minnesota. The line shot up to -5.5 when the news on Adrian Peterson came out. I liked the Vikes at at +3 and I love it at +5.5. Peterson is a great back, but isn't a huge variable in this game the Pats offensive line is what will be the deciding factor in this game. If they hold up, NE has a good shot of winning. If they don't, which is my opinion, Minnesota wins this game straight up with or without A.P. Asiata is no slouch and will fill in nicely. The NY Jets opened up as +8 road dogs at Green Bay and the line has come down to +7.5 despite a paltry 31% backing the J-E-T-S. I believe G.B. will probably win, but it's very likely that it won't be by more than a touchdown allowing us to sneak in for a cover.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Picks: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (win), Minnesota Vikings +5.5 (loss), NYJ +7.5 (win).
Week 1: (9/4 through 9/8) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +5 road dogs at Pittsburgh. The line has moved to -7 because the public are hammering the Steelers. This is a different Browns team this year. Not a great Browns team, but one good enough to bet getting 7 points! The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up at +11. The line has dropped to +10.5 despite only 30% betting on the Jags.
Week 1 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns +7 (win), Jaguars +10.5 (loss).
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
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2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
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