Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS),
8:30 p.m. EST, Week 6 NFL, Monday Night Football, October 17, 2011, MetLife Stadium, East
Rutherford, N.J., TV: ESPN
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mia +7.5/NYJ -7.5
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Make Miami a +27.5 underdog by placing them into a 20 point football teaser which can be found at 5Dimes. (They also offer -105 on sides/totals!)
The teetering New York Jets may just catch a break in week six NFL action when they host the winless Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium for an AFC East rival clash on MNF.
The Jets have lost three straight games after opening the season with two wins, dropping last week’s contest against their other AFC East rival New England, 30-21. The Jets offense continues to struggle moving the ball and controlling the clock with the running game, and the defense couldn’t hold Tom Brady down for long in the loss to the Patriots.
But help might be on the way in the form of the Dolphins, who have struggled to an 0-4 start and now face the rest of the season without starting quarterback Chad Henne. The Dolphins, who lost Henne to a season-ending shoulder injury in their, 26-16, loss in San Diego two weeks ago, held an open tryout for anyone who could throw a football last week during their bye.
For the short-term the Dolphins will turn to backup Matt Moore at quarterback, but in the back of the mind of every Miami fan is the hope/fear that the Fins will play out the rest of the regular season in a contest with Indianapolis for the rights to draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck.
The oddsmakers that set the football betting lines originally opened the Monday Night Football game between these two rivals with the Jets as large 9-point favorites at home. Surprisingly though, the number has actually dropped to minus -7.5-points after most of the early money has come in on the wounded Dolphins. There are still a few online sportsbooks listing the Jets at minus -9, or even minus -8, but the number has dropped to -7.5 at all of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and a majority of the reputable books on the Internet.
The over/under total has also seen its share of line movement since the opening number was released, starting at 41 late on Sunday night and rising up to 42 or 42.5 after the first few hours of wagering at the window. The total going up is somewhat surprising as well, especially since on paper this game will feature two offenses that struggle to score points.
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The Jets have gone to back-to-back AFC Championship games the past two season thanks in part to an offense that runs the football, controls the clock and keeps quarterback Mark Sanchez from having to win the game on his own, but that formula has disappeared in 2011.
The Jets are only averaging 76.2 yards a game on the ground thus far, which ranks 31st in the 32-team NFL, and could be a big reason why the Jets have failed to put up wins in recent weeks. Part of the problem has been injuries along the offensive line, but there’s really no reason why the duo of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
Without a strong running game Sanchez has shown his weakness at throwing the ball downfield (56.4 comp. %, 6.6 ypatt., 8 TD-5 INT) and the Jets offense as a whole has stubbed its toe with an average of just 297.4 yards a game (28th).
The good news for Sanchez and the Jets is that the Miami defense is a shell of its former self, ranked 28th in overall yardage (414.5 ypg) and 25th in points allowed at 26 per game. Sanchez will also drool over the fact that the Dolphins pass defense has been cut apart by previous quarterbacks, to the tune of allowing 307 yards a game (31st).
When Miami has the ball they will likely try and run it to take some of the pressure off of Moore, something that they’ve had limited success doing thus far in 2011 (115.2 ypg rushing – 15th). The bigger question is who will run the ball, since offseason pickup Reggie Bush has been a flop and rookie Daniel Thomas has missed two of the Dolphins four games due to injury. Running the ball is the best option against the Jets defense too, since they are allowing 134.8 yards a game (26th) including 152 yards against the Patriots last week (4.3 ypc).
Moore was 17-of-26 for 167 yards in relief of Henne against the Chargers, but he threw an interception and has had issues in protecting the football in his previous attempts as a starter in the NFL.
The good news for Miami is that they seem to have the Jets number, especially on the road, as they have a three game winning streak over the Jets at the old Meadowlands and new MetLife Stadium. Last year they beat the Jets 10-6 in New York, the year before in 2009 they won both games against the Jets including a 30-25 decision on the road. All told there are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head games with a perfect 3-0 for both on the road.
The underdog has also enjoyed a 5-0 ATS mark in those same five games. The problem for the Dolphins is that they are just 1-5 ATS against the AFC East in their last six tries.
The Jets haven’t been good to bettors either, going 5-13 in October over the past few seasons and a terrible 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games on Monday Night.
With all of those betting trend numbers scaring you off the side bet, the best wager for this game could be the over. The over is 8-2 in Miami’s last 10 road games, 22-7 in the Jets last 29 games overall, and 4-1 for both teams in their last five games in primetime on Monday Night Football.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: In a normal world I would never back the Jets as more than a touchdown favorite, but this is not a “normal” week between these AFC East rivals. The Jets desperately NEED this game, at home, to get back in the AFC playoff chase. I don’t really like it, but I’m taking the Jets minus the 7.5-points here.
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