Miami Dolphins (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS), NFL Week 12, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 29, 2009, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Dolphins -3/Bills +3
Over/Under: 39.5
Since Chad Henne took over as the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins after they started off 0-3, they have a 5-2 record. The first of those five wins was a 38-10 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins and Bills face off again on Sunday in Buffalo, as the Dolphins try to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
In that 5-2 run, the two losses for the Dolphins were to the Patriots and the Saints, two of the best teams in the NFL. The loss to the Patriots was by 10 points and the loss to the Saints was by 12, but the Dolphins had a 24-3 lead in the first half against New Orleans before the Saints battled back for the win.
The Dolphins received a huge blow two weeks ago when running back Ronnie Brown injured his foot and was placed on the injured reserve, meaning he will miss the rest of the season. It is an enormous loss for such a run-heavy team, but luckily the Dolphins do still have a very good backup running back in Ricky Williams.
In the first start of the season for Williams, a 24-17 win over the Panthers last Thursday, he ran for 119 yards and two touchdowns and also had a receiving touchdown. Chad Henne was 17-for-29 for 172 yards and one touchdown (the pass to Williams). The Dolphins pass defense, which has been suspect at times this season, did a nice job against Carolina, allowing Jake Delhomme to complete only 19 of his 42 pass attempts and intercepting him once.
The Bills started off the season well in their first two weeks with a one-point loss to the Patriots and a win over the Buccaneers, but since then it has not been good at all. Trent Edwards is no longer the quarterback and Dick Jauron is longer the head coach. Edwards as pulled for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jauron was fired last week. On top of that, running back Marshawn Lynch injured his shoulder on Sunday and is questionable for this week's game.
In the team's first game without Jauron, the Bills almost got a win at Jacksonville, losing the game 18-15 on a last minute touchdown by the Jaguars. Terrell Owens, who looked like a bust of a signing, had a huge breakout game with nine receptions for 197 yards and a touchdown. With that performance by Owens, it's safe to say that Fitzpatrick will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season, despite throwing two interceptions against the Jaguars.
In the Dolphins' 38-10 win over the Bills earlier this season, Miami used its wildcat offense to run all over the Buffalo defense. The Dolphins ran for 250 yards on the ground, including 115 yards and two touchdowns by Brown and 85 yards and a touchdown by Williams. The Dolphins ran the ball 45 times and threw the ball 22 times. Both quarterbacks were sacked six times, and the Dolphins intercepted Edwards three times.
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The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The total has gone over in five of Miami's last seven games. The Bills are 1-8 ATS and 1-8 SU in their last nine road games. The total has gone under in five of Buffalo's last six games.
Ryno's Pick: Since Henne took over at quarterback, the Dolphins really have been one of the better teams in the NFL. Since then, they are 5-2 with their only two losses coming to the Saints and the Patriots. And they had an opportunity to win both of those games, especially against the Saints when they had a 24-3 lead. Sure, the Bills played better against the Jaguars and had an opportunity to win the game before David Garrard threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the final minute to Mike Sims-Walker. But the Bills offense just doesn't cut it. The Dolphins destroyed them last time around and it shouldn't be much different this time, especially since the Bills are 1-8 ATS and SU in their last nine home games. Take the Dolphins -3.
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