Miami Dolphins (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS), NFL Week 11, 8:20 p.m. EST, Thursday, November 19, 2009, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. TV: NFL Network
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Dolphins +3.5/Panthers -3.5
If you like passing, this is not the game for you. But if you like running, this certainly is the game for you. Two of the top five running teams in the league meet up on Thursday night, as the Carolina Panthers host the Miami Dolphins.
Both of these teams have two quality running backs. The Dolphins have Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and the Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers run a conventional style, while the Dolphins often use the wildcat formation. But Brown and Williams are banged up with injuries. Williams played on Sunday and should be good to go on Thursday. Brown hurt his ankle on Sunday and is likely out on Thursday. Without Brown, the Dolphins will have to rely on Williams, and they may opt to let Chad Henne pass the ball more than usual.
Henne has 990 passing yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions with a 58.9 completion percentage. Brown has 648 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Williams has 558 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins running backs have accounted in some way for 16 of the team's 21 offensive touchdowns this season.
The Dolphins are coming off a dramatic 25-23 win over the Buccaneers. The Dolphins held a 22-16 lead in the fourth quarter until the Bucs scored a touchdown with 1:14 remaining. But Henne led the Dolphins on a four-play, 68-yard drive that lasted a minute, including two passes to Davone Bess for 41 yards and a 27-yard run by Williams, to set up a game-winning field goal by Dan Carpenter with 10 seconds left in the game.
The Panthers are coming off a 28-19 win over the Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers have won four of their last six games after starting off 0-3. Against the Falcons, the Panthers unleashed a no-huddle offense that was quite successful for quarterback Jake Delhomme. He threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Any time Delhomme can throw decently and not turn the ball over, the Panthers have a great chance to win. DeAngelo Williams ran for 92 yards, and Stewart ran for 82 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers gave up 111 yards on just nine carries to Falcons running back Michael Turner before he left with an injury. The Falcons had 176 total rushing yards. That's not a good sign for the Panthers defense heading into a game against the Dolphins.
For the season, Williams has 860 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Stewart has 466 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
This game will likely come down to which team does a better job stopping the run. The Dolphins being without Brown will be a huge blow if he indeed does not play. But Williams is capable of picking up the slack just fine, however the Dolphins probably would then cut down a bit on the wildcat formation. That would be an advantage for the Panthers. The Dolphins also have a fairly weak pass defense, so Delhomme could exploit that if he can get Steve Smith involved. The Panthers have a pretty good pass defense, so it could be a tough game for Henne, especially if the Dolphins aren't able to dominate on the ground.
The total has gone over in five of Miami's last six games. These two teams last played in 2005, when the Dolphins won the game in Miami, 27-24.
Ryno's Pick: These two teams are pretty evenly matched. With the Dolphins getting more than a field goal, normally they would be a solid value pick. But if Brown doesn't play, it's tough to predict how well the Dolphins will play without him. If the Dolphins aren't as effective as usual with their running game without him, Henne probably won't be able to carry the offense himself, especially against a solid pass defense. The Panthers played well against the Falcons and are playing very well the last few weeks. With a consistent running attack and Delhomme playing well against the Falcons in the new no-huddle offense, the Panthers should be able to mix it up well and put up some points on the Dolphins. The Panthers will continue to play well on both sides of the ball and win one at home. Take the Panthers -3.5.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.