Miami Dolphins (0-2 SU 0-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1 SU 1-1 ATS) Week 2 NFL Football, Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH, 1 PM ET Sunday September 25, 2011 on CBS
by Jason Green, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MIA +2.5/CLE -2.5
Over/Under Total: 41
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The Miami Dolphins have not started off the season well losing their first 2 games each by at least 10 points, but they have faced 2 of the best passing offenses in the league in the Patriots and the Texans. The Cleveland Browns have a better record at 1-1, but they only beat a Peyton Manning-less Colts team last week and lost to the Bengals in their season opener.
Last week the Browns beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-19 while Miami lost to the Houston Texans 23-13. Last season the Dolphins lost the Browns 13-10 at home.
When looking at the Browns' defense after 2 games they only rank 24th against the run, but 2nd against the pass. However, their pass defense has not really been tested yet facing rookie Andy Dalton and journeyman Bruce Gradkowski in their loss to the Bengals and Kerry Collins in the win over the Colts. Miami QB Chad Henne lit up the Patriots in week 1 and was only 12/30 for 170 yards against the Texans. Look for him to bounce back in this game and play well against a suspect Browns' secondary.
The Reggie Bush era in Miami has not started out well only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, but one bright spot for the Fish last week is that RB Daniel Thomas became the first Miami player to rush for over 100 yards in 21 games. The Browns' rushing D this season has been mediocre at best, which is why Thomas will get a lot of touches and he and Bush will have good games on the ground attack.
Miami was sloppy in the Texans game committing 2 turnovers and their special teams play was terrible missing a 34-yard field goal and having a 22-yard field goal blocked. On top of that they need a kick returner to step up, as last week the Dolphins started 7 possessions at their 20-yard line or behind it.
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Colt McCoy was 22/32 for 211 yards with a TD and 0 INT last week against the Colts, but do not expect him to pass for a ton of yards against Miami even though the Dolphins' secondary struggled against the Pats and the Texans. McCoy does not have a very good WR corps and the Miami secondary will play much better facing a less than elite passing offense for the first time this season.
Dare I say Madden cover curse strikes again? Peyton Hillis beat out Michael Vick to be on the Madden 12 cover this season, but he has averaged less than 4 yards per carry in the first 2 Cleveland games. Since McCoy does not scare any pass defenses the Dolphins will move up to contain Hillis and they will do just that. The Miami run defense has not played well in the first 2 games, but they were focusing more on stopping Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.
Let's look at some betting trends for this AFC match up:
The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points, and they have an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
The Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, have failed to cover the spread in their last 5 home games, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 games facing the Browns.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Spread: I don't think the Dolphins are a bad 0-2 team with the 2 teams they have faced and while the Browns are improving they are still one of the weaker teams in the league. Henne will have a good game as will the Miami rushing offense, but they will win this game with their defense. Take the Dolphins to win this game in a minor upset getting 2.5 points.
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