Denver Broncos (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS), Week 7 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 23, 2011, Mall of America Field, Miami, Fla. TV: CBS
by Ryno, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Den Pick'em/MIA Pick'em
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Make the Phins a +20 underdog by placing them into a 20 point football teaser at one of the web's best sportsbooks: 5Dimes.
Two teams down on their luck. Two teams struggling to find a victory. Two teams that have already switched quarterbacks this season. It's the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins - not quite primetime game of the week material. It's the Andrew Luck game - two teams possibly vying for the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, already looking forward to that, when they can possibly draft the Stanford QB who is widely considered a stud prospect.
The Broncos started the season with Kyle Orton at quarterback while the Dolphins started off with Chad Henne under center. But Henne got injured and replaced by Matt Moore, while Orton wasn't quite getting the job done and the Broncos finally gave in to the fans' cheers for Tim Tebow, as Tebow will make his first start on Sunday.
Moore held his own in his first start of the season on Monday night in a loss to the to the New York Jets, 24-6. Moore's numbers weren't great - he was 16-for-34 passing for 204 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions - and the Dolphins got smoked. But he moved the ball down the field and put the ball in positions for receivers to catch the ball. But the Dolphins constantly dropped passes and made mistakes, making it much more difficult for Moore to keep his team in the game. He even got star wide receiver Brandon Marshall involved with six receptions for 109 yards, but Marshall could have had even more if he caught the passes he dropped and Darrelle Revis didn't come up with two key interceptions.
Meanwhile, Tebow came into the game in the second half for the Broncos in their last game, a 29-24 loss to the San Diego Chargers. Down 26-10, Tebow led his team back into the game with a chance to win it at the end, but ultimately they fell just short. Tebow was 4-for-10 passing for 79 yards and a touchdown, plus six rushes for 38 yards and another touchdown. Although his completion percentage was just 40 percent, if he can replicate what he did in that game for an entire game, the Broncos will be in much better shape going forward. His versatility makes it tough for the opposing defense to prepare.
TIRED OF YOUR CREDIT CARD NOT WORKING FOR DEPOSITS? END THAT PROBLEM TODAY BY SIGNING UP AT INTERTOPS SPORTSBOOK (THE FIRST EVER TO GO ONLINE)
The Broncos just recently traded Brandon Lloyd, who led the NFL in receiving yards last year. With him gone, the wide outs Tebow will rely on will be Eric Decker (22 receptions, 266 yards, four touchdowns) and a host of other relatively unknown pass catchers. On the ground, the Broncos give the ball to Willis McGahee (334 rush yards, one touchdown) and Knowshon Moreno, when he's healthy (which he hasn't been).
Outside of Marshall, who has 28 receptions for 422 yards and one touchdown this season, Moore's top targets include Davone Bess, Brian Hartline and Reggie Bush. On the ground, Bush has 190 rushing yards while rookie Daniel Thomas has 249 rushing yards in just three games. Neither one of them has a rushing touchdown.
This game will come down to which quarterback is more effective. Moore needs to get his receivers involved and not turn the ball over. Tebow needs to do what he does best - scramble, run the ball, and make a few nice passes down the field. Whichever QB is more impressive and makes less mistakes will likely win the game.
The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games, 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss, and 0-6 ATS in their last six October games. The Dolphins are 6-29 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite, 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss, 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Dolphins. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Yeah, yeah, Tebow's back yard, Tebow spark the team, big point spread move from 3 down to a pickem, blah blah blah. Miami wins this game and has all the Tebow fans up in arms.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.