Miami Dolphins (3-4, 3-4 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS), Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Sunday, Nov. 8th, 1 PM Eastern, CBS
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Patriots -10 1/2/Dolphins +10 1/2
Over/Under: 46 1/2
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Last year the Miami Dolphins, a season after going 1-15, won 11 games and the AFC East Division title. Their East Division rivals, the New England Patriots, also won 11 games, but missed the playoffs.
This season New England looks to return to the postseason, while Miami is trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke. So far, the Patriots are doing a better job of completing their task than are the Dolphins.
That's the situation as the division-leading Patriots host the Fish Sunday afternoon at Foxboro.
Most online NFL betting outlets opened New England as a favorite of 10 1/2 or 11 for this game, with a total of from 47 to 48 1/2. Through the first 48 hours or so of betting action, the line has held steady, but the total has been dropped to 46 1/2 at most places.
The Pats are also being offered at right around -550 on most betting moneylines, with Miami getting +450 as the underdogs.
The Dolphins started this season 0-3, losing to the Falcons, Colts and Chargers. But they've won three of four since, including a 30-25 decision over the Jets last Sunday in New Jersey.
The Patriots, meanwhile, every sportsbooks' preseason favorite to win the SuperBowl, own victories this season over the Bills, Falcons, Ravens, Titans and Buccaneers, and have lost by a touchdown at the Jets and by a field goal in overtime at Denver.
So at 5-2, New England leads the AFC East by a game and a half over the second-place New York Jets, and by two games over third-place Miami.
The Dolphins began the season with veteran Chad Pennington starting at quarterback, but he went down and out for the season to another shoulder injury in week 3. In his place, second-year pro Chad Henne has completed 60% of his passes this year for 6.2 YPA, which is low, with four TD passes, three interceptions, and a very average 78.4 passers rating.
For New England, QB Tom Brady, after missing nearly all of last season to a knee injury, has been rounding into form, albeit lately against some of the league's weaker sisters defensively. On the season, Mr. All-American has hit on 66% of his throws for 7.4 YPA, with 15 TDs and four interceptions, and a 99.9 passing rating.
The Dolphins and their Wildcat are outrushing opponents this season by a 154-92 YPG margin, but overall they're getting outgained on average 333-310.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are outgaining opponents 406-286, while outrushing foes 115-109.
New England leads the league in average time-of-possession at +8:44, while Miami ranks fourth at +5:48.
These two teams split their two meetings last season, each winning on the other's home field. In one of the first displays of what their Wildcat attack was capable of, the Dolphins ran for 216 yards in a 38-13 trouncing of the Brady-less Patriots in week three in Foxboro. Nine weeks later in Miami, New England replacement QB Matt Cassel threw for 415 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-28 Patriots victory.
Both those games cruised over their betting totals of 37 and 43.
The totals are 5-2 in Dolphins games this season, which have averaged over 50 points per.
The over/unders are 3-4 in Pats games, which have averaged 42 points, mainly because New England is holding opponents to 14 PPG.
Through the first eight weeks of NFL betting action this season, double-digit favorites are 21-2 straight up and 14-9 against the pointspreads.
On the Sagarin PURE POINTS charts at USAToday.com, the Patriots are rated at 32.4, the Dolphins at 25.6. Factoring in Sagarin's updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 1.4, and New England is an eight-point favorite on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man's Pick: The Patriots are likely to win this game but I like Miami with their wildcat offense to stick within the spread and get the money. Good luck!
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