Minnesota Vikings (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU,
1-5 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 25, 2009, Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, Pa., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Vikings +4/Steelers -4
Over/Under: 45.5
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The Fox Network gets to host the best game of the NFL’s early Sunday lineup this weekend when MVP quarterbacks Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger go head-to-head at Heinz Field as the undefeated Minnesota Vikings take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.
Favre and the Vikings dodged a bullet to stay undefeated last Sunday in their 33-31 victory over Baltimore when Ravens kicker Steven Hauschka missed a game-winning field goal as time expired. The narrow win may be masking some problems though, as the Vikings defense allowed 21 points in the 4th quarter by the Ravens that erased a 17- point lead and forced Favre and the offense into comeback mode in the final two minutes.
The Steelers on the other hand are coming off of an easy win over their AFC North rival Cleveland Browns Sunday, winning the game 27-14 in a game that was never really as close as the score would indicate. The Steelers defense welcomed All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu back into the lineup and the unit returned to it’s dominate form, limiting the Browns to 197 yards of total offense while collecting two sacks, two picks and two fumbles.
The victory by the Steelers moved them into a tie with Cincinnati atop the AFC North Division with a 4-2 record, while the 6-0 Vikings are currently enjoying a two-game lead in the NFC North Division.
The opening point spread for this game is very interesting, as oddsmakers staked the Steelers as surprising 4-point favorites. You would think a battle of two first-place teams would open a little lower, but the oddsmakers may be looking at the Vikings injury report (Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Antoine Winfield are all listed as questionable). They also might be trying to balance the take, as now that Favre is in Minnesota they’ve become a heavy public favorite each week, a similar situation he used to enjoy as the QB of the Packers.
The over/under total has seen a lot of line movement since it opened at 44.5 late on Sunday. The early steam at the window shot the total up a full point to 45.5 almost instantly, and now there are several offshore sportsbooks and even a few books in Las Vegas that have moved the number up to 46 already.
Even though the game features the best running back in the league in Peterson and the Steelers vaunted power-running game, this game will likely be decided by the big-name quarterbacks and their respective passing attacks.
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With every week that goes by you can see Favre growing more and more comfortable with his new core of receivers, especially Sidney Rice. Favre threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns last week versus the Ravens secondary, giving him almost 800 yards passing and seven TDs in his last three games. The other thing Favre has brought to the Vikings this year is quick-strike capabilities, as the Vikings are ranked 2nd in the league in scoring at 31.5 points per game.
But with all of the accolades going to the 40-year-old QB lately, it’s actually Roethlisberger that is putting up career-high numbers in the air. He threw for 417 yards last week against the Browns, and for the season the Steelers are 2nd in the NFL with 296.7 yards passing per game. They have also turned in their share of big plays, as the rank right behind the Vikings in scoring at 23.3 points per game (4th).
Defensively these two are mirror images of each other. Both stop the run first (Pitt. 2nd – 74.3 ypg; Minn. 9th – 93.5 ypg), give up a little of yardage through the air (Pitt. 13th – 200.8 ypg; Minn. 24th – 248.3 ypg), but remain pretty stingy when it comes to scoring (Pitt. 11th – 18.7 ppg; Minn. 18th – 20.2 ppg).
The key for the Vikings will be the health of Winfield because most of Baltimore’s yardage and points in the fourth quarter last week came after he left the game with his toe injury. If he’s capable and ready to go on Sunday, his cover skills allow the Vikings to bring more pressure and tilt half the field with safeties over the top to the other side.
The historical head-to-head matchup data between these two squads is surprisingly limited through the years. They have met four times in the preseason since 2001, but only six times in the regular season going back all the way to 1986. Pittsburgh won the last meeting back in 2005 by an 18-3 score (as 4.5-point favorites), but that was before Peterson and before Favre and Roethlisberger was in his second year at Pittsburgh, so relating any of those numbers to this week is comparing apples to oranges.
For the record, the six regular season meetings have been split 3-3 SU, with the Vikings holding a 4-2 ATS edge. The under is 5-1 in the same six games.
The Vikings have covered the point spread in their last four road games, while the Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games at Heinz Field.
Badger’s Pick: I fully expect both teams to attack the opposing defense through the air, since it is the path of least resistance for both teams. Especially if Winfield is unable to go, or limited by his bad toe. With all of that stoppage time due to incompletions, it will make the over a solid play even though the total has moved up a point- and-a-half already. Take the over of 45.5 and lock it in right now before it moves up more.
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