Chicago Bears (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-12 SU, 6-7-2 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 17 NFL, Sunday, January 1, 2012, Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, Minn., TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chi +1.5/MIN -1.5
Over/Under Total: 40.5
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The Chicago Bears will be playing for pride and the Minnesota Vikings will be playing for draft position when the two NFC North teams get together in the season finale on New Year’s Day Sunday at Mall of America Field in Minneapolis.
With injuries taking away what once was a potential NFC playoff birth from the Bears, the boys from the Windy City are left to just playing out the season in hopes of snapping what has become a five-game losing streak.
The Bears season took a 180-turn down the road of hard luck following a, 31-20 victory over the San Diego Chargers back on November 20th. Quarterback Jay Cutler broke his thumb on his throwing hand late in the victory trying to make a tackle after an interception, and running back Matt Forte joined him with a knee injury a week later and the Bears have been searching for answers ever since.
The misery continued and reached the five-game mark on Christmas night in a, 35-21, loss in Green Bay. A few weeks removed from coaching high school football back in North Carolina, new Bears quarterback Josh McCown struggled to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Christmas by throwing two interceptions in the loss that was more lopsided then the final score indicates.
But as dismal as the Bears season has become in just a few short weeks, at least they haven’t been forced to endure the season-long heartache the Vikings have had to face this season.
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Faced with a 1-4 start and an aging quarterback in Donovan McNabb who just never took to the offense, the Vikings decided to make the future now and inserted rookie Christian Ponder in at quarterback. As you would expect the results have been mixed, but as well as the Vikings have played of late they were never able to finish the game and translate their decent play into wins.
Until last week that is, when the Vikings sprung a, 33-26, upset win over the equally underachieving Washington Redskins. It was second-year quarterback Joe Webb that led the Vikings to the win, relieving Ponder (who left with a concussion) in the second half to run for a score and throw two more to give the Vikings a moral victory on the road in Washington.
But the victory came at a huge cost when franchise running back Adrian Peterson tore his ACL early in the game and was placed on injured reserve on Sunday. Peterson reportedly will be ready to play next season, but how quick he is hitting the hole coming off of knee surgery remains to be seen.
With the status of Ponder still up in the air (listed as questionable), as well as offensive starters Anthony Herrera and Steve Hutchinson, the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas have yet to release a point spread or total for this game.
With the way the Vikings have played the last two times he came in relief of Ponder, the Vikes should just let Webb get the start in the finale. If Herrera (back) and Hutchinson (concussion) don’t play then it won’t matter anyway, but at least Webb has the scrambling ability to avoid danger.
With Toby Gerhart more than capable of filling in at running back (109 yards on 11 carries after A.P. was hurt), the Vikings should be able weather the storm and get through the final week of play before making tee times next week for the winter.
Chicago’s offense looked good with McCown at the helm, at least better then they have looked with Caleb Hanie at quarterback in recent weeks. It helps that the Bears were able to run the ball successfully against the weak Packers defense (199 yards on 42 carries), and the passing attack was very vanilla in its approach, so in the end McCown’s numbers (19-of-28, 124 yards) were decent considering the circumstances that he was coaching and not playing two weeks ago.
Defensively the Bears are strong enough to limit the Vikings attack, especially if the Vikings choose to try and pound Gerhart on the ground to take the pressure off of Webb (or Ponder) because the Bears are still top-10 in run defense (allow 97.5 ypg – 6th).
The Vikings defense has struggled with big plays (28.8 ppg – 31st), especially in the passing game (260 ypg – 29th), so the Bears should be able to move the ball this week even with a quarterback off the street.
Without a point spread or total it’s impossible to handicap this game too in depth, but there are a few betting trends to keep in mind for later in the week.
The Bears have played well in the past on the road in games they should win (8-3-1 ATS in last 12 vs. teams with losing records). But when those road games are played indoors on fieldturf, the results are not as strong (1-4-1 ATS in last six on fieldturf).
Minnesota has struggled against the NFC North lately (2-7-1 ATS in L10), and they seem to pack it in early in week 17 games the past decade (2-9-1 ATS in last 12 week 17 games). The over is a strong trend play (5-0 in Minn vs. NFC North; 5-1 on fieldturf; 9-2 in Chicago’s L11 in January), but with the lack of offensive firepower going into this game following that trend might be dangerous.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: My first inclination is to tell you to find a different game to wager on or save your bankroll for the playoffs. There's just not a lot of value in this game. If forced to make a prediction, I'd side with the Vikings.
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