Minnesota Vikings (2-6 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS), 8:30 p.m. EST, Week 10 NFL, MNF, November 14, 2011, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Min +13.5/GB -13.5
Over/Under Total: 51
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This week the folks at ESPN and Monday Night Football will have a good old-fashioned NFC North grudge match on their hands in primetime, when the Minnesota Vikings travel to historic Lambeau Field to take on the undefeated Green Bay Packers.
The Pack kept their record perfect at 8-0 with a nail biting, 45-38, shootout win over the San Diego Chargers on the left coast last weekend. With a comfortable 21-point lead with just over 10 minutes to play, the Chargers mounted a furious comeback that included a recovered onside kick and several breakdowns in the Packers defensive secondary, but the rally ended late when Philip Rivers was intercepted for the third time in the game to drive the nails in the Chargers coffin.
Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers continued on his record-setting pace with four more touchdown throws, but the late collapse by the Packers defense took some of the bloom of the rose that was the Packers eighth win in eight tries. With plenty of errors to correct, the Packers will likely be determined to put together a more complete 60-minute game this week at Lambeau when they greet the rival Vikings from across the state border.
Minnesota spent last Sunday on the couch watching with the bye week, but the last time they played ended in positive fashion with a, 24-21, victory over the Carolina Panthers on the road in Charlotte. Rookie QB Christian Ponder won the battle of rookie quarterbacks in that game over Cam Newton, throwing for 236 yards and a score and running back Adrian Peterson got loose for 86 yards and a touchdown to key the Vikings win back on the day before Halloween.
With two starts under his belt Ponder will now lead the Vikings into Lambeau Field for his first visit into rival Packers territory. Minnesota will try and spring the big upset on the big stage of Monday Night Football and get Ponder his first taste of what they hope will be many wins for the rookie under the bright lights of the national spotlight.
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But if the Vikings are going to accomplish that task they will have to do it as huge underdogs, since the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas opened the MNF affair this week with Green Bay as 13.5-point favorites at home.
The early action at the betting window has been mixed, with a few sportsbooks dropping the hook to list the Packers as just 13-point favorites, while several other books have raised the number up the hook to Green Bay minus -14 points. Either way, the Vikings will likely be close to two touchdown dogs come Monday when they travel to Lambeau, the biggest number they’ve faced this season and the biggest point spread either team has been favored by in the past decade-plus of this NFC North rivalry.
The over/under total opened at 51 has yet to show much if any line movement. A few sportsbooks have moved the total to 51.5 to take the push out of play, but a large majority of them have yet to move the opening number at all.
By now if you don’t know what the Packers and Rodgers have to offer on offense, then you haven’t been paying attention the past 14 weeks since they last lost a game.
Rodgers leads the league in just about every QB category including completion percentage (72.5%), yards per completion (9.88) and QB rating (129.1). The QB rating is probably the most impressive of them all, since the next closest competitor is Drew Brees at 100.6.
The Packers offense is deadly (34.4 ppg -1st), and although their running game is averaging just 104 yards a game (20th), it’s often just enough to keep defenses honest and move the chains late when they are trying to milk the clock.
On the other sideline the Vikings offense is obviously a work in progress. Since Ponder has been inserted into the starting lineup, their totals of 398 yards a game and 25.5 points per game have been improvements over their season long averages when Donavan McNabb was running the show (332 ypg -18th; 21.5 ppg – 20th, respectively).
But without a legit game-breaker at receiver (Michael Jenkins lead the team with 362 yards), Ponder and the Vikings passing game is limited in its ability to threaten teams with a vertical threat. That in turn has placed even more of a burden on Peterson to carry the load, a load he is great at carrying (798 yards, 10 TD, 150 ypg rushing – 5th) but one that will sooner or later catch up to him.
What will make this week even more interesting is the way the Vikings will choose to attack a weakened Packers defense. Normally you would expect heavy doses of A.P. all game long, but the Packers run defense (100 ypg – 8th) has been strong this season, while the secondary has been extremely susceptible to the big plays in the passing game (259 ypg – 31st).
Can the Vikings and Ponder take advantage of that weakness? Or will they just grind away with A.P.? Those are big questions and big keys to whether or not the Vikings can spring the huge upset come Monday.
The Vikings were very successful the first time these two teams met in the Metrodome back in week seven on October 23rd, throwing for 217yards and running for 218. But two Charles Woodson interceptions, and the typical Rodgers precision (24-of-30 for 335 and 3 TD) were still too much for the Vikings to overcome in the 33-27 loss at home. Minnesota did score 10 points in the final quarter to make the score look closer than the game really was, but it did give bettors a backdoor cover as the Vikings did cover as 10-point dogs at home in the game.
The Packers are a solid 4-1 SU in the last five season at home in Lambeau against the Vikings, with the lone exception being the first return trip by their former leader Brett Favre. But Minnesota is a great wager on the road at Lambeau despite not winning on the scoreboard, since they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 visits to Green Bay.
Historically the underdog has been a great bet in this rivalry, going 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings. Often that means the road team is winning, which explains why the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 head-to-head games.
Betting trends on the total are mixed, with the over having some strong numbers (6-1 in L7 H2H; 6-1 in Minn. L7 on MNF; 7-2 in GB L9 at home), but the under also having some thought provoking stats too (5-1 in GB L6 vs. NFC North; 5-1 in Minn. L6 as road dog).
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I believe the Vikes are a pretty strong play here. Green Bay can put up points like nobody's business but their defense just doesn't warrant them being this big of a favorite.
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