Minnesota Vikings (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0 SU,
0-0 ATS), Week 1 NFL, 8:30 p.m. EST, Thursday, September 9, 2010, Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Vikings +4.5/Saints -4.5
Over/Under: 49
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The National Football League opens up it’s 2010 regular season with a special Thursday Night Kickoff showdown on NBC featuring a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game when the Minnesota Vikings travel to the Superdome to play the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints.
Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees and the Saints will reunite on the field with the once-again unretired Brett Favre and the Vikings to give the NFL and NBC a studly opening night telecast, but Thursday night’s opener likely won’t compare to last January’s memorable matchup.
While Brees and the Saints appear to have picked up right where they left off, winning two of their first three preseason games and averaging over 32 points per game in doing so, the Vikings have not resembled the NFC North team that finished just an OT period short of the Super Bowl.
Minnesota was forced to wait for Favre’s annual will-he or won’t-he dramatics to start training camp, only to lose their best receiver Sidney Rice to a hip injury before the preseason was half over. Injuries along the once powerful Vikings offensive line is also causing problems too, problems that have the Vikings looking shaky and ill-prepared for the start of the regular season.
The early line out of Las Vegas has the defending champion Saints as 4.5-point favorites, but that number may rise in the week and a half leading up kickoff due to the Vikings injury issues.
The over/under total is currently listed at 49 and has yet to move significantly in either direction, which will likely happen as game time approaches, especially since these two teams combined for 59 at the end of January.
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Offensively there are very little questions surrounding the Saints, while the Vikings have nothing but questions to find answers too before the preseason ends.
New Orleans had the top-ranked offense in the league last year, led by a dominant passing game orchestrated by Brees. Brees was outstanding in his final preseason tune up, throwing for two scores and 240 yards in the Saints preseason week three victory over San Diego. The Saints will be without receiver Marques Colston to start the season (on PUP list), but with the rest of the supporting cast back the Saints have more than enough weapons to keep coach Sean Peyton’s offense rolling full steam.
Minnesota’s offense has looked bad in the preseason, and while the rustiness of Favre is less of a concern for the Vikings, injuries along the offensive line is starting to become a major worry. With guard Anthony Herrera playing center for the injured John Sullivan the Vikings missed a few protection checks in their last preseason tune up, with one of them causing Favre to get drilled from behind and fumble, so if Sullivan still can’t play versus the Saints (still questionable) it could get ugly.
A steady dose of Adrian Peterson could help to take pressure off of Favre, the O-line and the dinged up Viking receiving core, but at some point the Saints defense will find the weakness and attack with their ears pinned back just like they did to Favre in January.
Reflecting back to the NFC title game most people will remember the Saints defense for providing the blueprint for disrupting Favre’s timing with blitzes and overloads, but it was actually the Vikings defense that held the Saints to only 257 total yards and a sack and forced seven punts. With both defenses essentially the same this year (Darren Sharper is questionable), this game will come down to which team can repeat their defensive game plan from January.
The Vikings covered the point spread in the NFC title game, losing straight up by the field goal (31-28) in OT, but cashing in gambler’s tickets at the window as 4-point underdogs. The 59 point combined score also was cashed in before the overtime coin flip, since the final total closed at 54.
Both of those results are significant as far as betting trends go too, since the Vikings cover makes them a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Saints (since 2002); while the over also cashed in for the fifth time in a row for a perfect 5-0 in those same five games.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Spread: It's always dangerous to give preseason games too much weight when going into week one wagering, but based on what I’ve seen out of Minnesota I can’t even think about wagering on them right now. Some how, some way ole graybeard will get the Vikings some points, and you know Brees and the Saints are good for at least 35 to 40, so I’m playing safe in week one and taking the over of 49.
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