New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-0
SU, 5-3 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Sunday Night Football, November 15, 2009, Lucas Oil
Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind., TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Patriots +3/Colts -3
Over/Under: 50
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The AFC’s best rivalry in recent years, featuring two of the NFL’s best all-time quarterbacks, will be renewed in primetime this weekend when the New England Patriots and Tom Brady travel to Indiana to take on the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning in Lucas Oil Stadium on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in America.
The Colts continue to be one of the NFL’s two remaining unbeaten teams, but it’s getting harder and harder each week as they barely survived a 20-17 victory over the Houston Texans last Sunday. The week before they were in a dogfight at home against the San Francisco 49ers, winning by a few hairs on their chinny-chin-chin, 18-14.
The Patriots are riding a modest three-game winning streak coming into the showdown, beating their AFC East rival Miami Dolphins last weekend in a game that was much closer then the 27-17 final score. The Pats actually fell behind the Fins 17-14 late in the third quarter, but a 71-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Randy Moss put New England back in front for good to set the stage for this week’s big game.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas are expecting an even matchup of two top-notch teams, opening the game with the Colts as the standard 3-point favorites at home. The point spread appears to be dead on with the public money coming in on both sides, since it has yet to see any line movement following the early action at the window. The only sportsbook to move the number at all is the Planet Hollywood in Vegas, who moved it down the hook to Colts minus -2.5.
The over/under total opened at 50 and has also held firm during the early steam, although there are a few offshore sportsbooks on the Web listing the total at 49.5.
The only safe bet for this game on Sunday Night is that the football will get chucked around like never before on offense.
Manning and the Colts are the top-ranked passing offense in the NFL, throwing for 315 yards a game. Brady and the Pats are ranked No. 2, averaging 295 yards per game.
The biggest difference between the two teams is their balance on offense. The Colts have no problem relying on Manning to win or lose the game for them, since their running attack is ranked 29th in the NFL at just 85.4 yards per game. While the Patriots use combinations of Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk to get 114.2 yards out of their rushing game per week, the 16th best tally in the league.
However you choose to slice and dice it, the bottom line is points on the scoreboard and both teams certainly do a great job at that with the Patriots 28.1 points per game average (3rd) ranking one point higher then the Colts mark of 27.1 (6th).
Speaking of points on the scoreboard, something will have to give in this game because, ironically, it features the top two scoring defenses in the league as well. The Colts allow just 13.5 points a game, tops in the league, while the Pats are allowing 14.4 points a game at the midway point of the season, the second best tally in the NFL.
Injuries could be a concern for the Colts on defense though, especially in the secondary, as last week they lost safety Bob Sanders (torn bicep) and nickel-back Marlin Jackson (torn ACL) on the same day in practice. Kelvin Hayden was already out with a sprained knee, so the Colts have been forced to start two rookies (Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey) at corner.
The Colts are still without kicker Adam Vinatieri as well. Veteran Matt Stover has done a fine job filling in for Vinatieri, but if this game comes down to a last-second kick the loss of Mr. Clutch could be just as huge as the injuries on defense.
The recent history between these two teams on the field has been well documented, with the Patriots getting the best of Manning and the Colts in the early 2000s including playoff victories over them in 2004 (24-14) and 2005 (20-3). However, the Colts have gotten a little bit of redemption back in the past few meetings, beating the Pats 18-15 last November at home in Lucas Oil Stadium, as well as a 38-34 thriller in the 2007 playoffs, also played in Indy.
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All told the head-to-head series has been pretty even if you play it out over the past 10 games, with New England holding a slim 6-4 SU advantage as well as a 5-4-1 ATS edge. If you only stretch it out over the past five games, Indy holds a solid 4-1 SU edge and a 4-1 ATS edge as well.
The betting trend most gamblers will be looking at for this game is squarely on the underdog, who is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Recently its been the Pats as the public’s darling, which is why the Colts have been 4-1 ATS in the last five. Home field has meant very little in this series too, as the Patriots are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games played at the RCA Dome and new Lucas Oil Stadium.
Badger’s Pick: The Colts injuries on defense are going to be exposed this week by Belicheck and Brady, guaranteed. I also think the Colts perfect record so far has been accomplished against less than stellar opposition. Manning will keep them in the game till the fourth quarter, but Brady and the Patriots will wear them out in the end and steal one on the road. Take New England plus the 3-points.
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