New England Patriots (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), Week 3 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, September 25, 2011, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV: CBS
by Ryno, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NE -9/Buf +9
Over/Under Total: 53.5
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Are the Buffalo Bills for real? That will be the question that will be answered on Sunday when the Bills host the New England Patriots. Both teams come in with 2-0 records and only one team will leave undefeated. A win by the Bills will solidify them as a legit contender in the AFC East. But even though they'll be at home and are playing well, what are the chances they knock off the powerhouse that is the Patriots, a team they've lost 15 straight to?
The Bills started off the season with a ridiculously impressive 41-7 road victory at the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that reached the playoffs last season. Most thought that a score like that in that game would go the opposite way. But the Bills announced to the league right there that they are ready to play this season. They followed that up with a 38-35 shootout victory at home over the Oakland Raiders. That begs the question how the Bills will be able to stop the Patriots offense if they gave up 35 points to the Raiders and had trouble stopping them. Also, their impressive performance over the Chiefs in Week 1 didn't look as impressive anymore after the Chiefs lost 48-3 to the Detroit Lions in Week 2.
So, did the Bills simply beat up on a miserable Chiefs team and then barely squeak by a decent Raiders team? Or did the Bills come away with two impressive performances that they will roll over into their game with the Patriots this weekend?
The Patriots thus far look like a dominant force, much like they did in 2007 when they beat up on everyone and finished the regular season with an undefeated 16-0 record. They started the season with a 38-24 win at the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football in which Tom Brady threw for an unbelievable 517 passing yards, including a 99-yard TD strike to Wes Welker. He followed that up with another 400+-yard passing affair in a 35-21 home win over the San Diego Chargers. Brady is off to an unfathomable start, on pace for more than 7,000 passing yards for the season, which would easily break Dan Marino's single season record. The chances are that Brady won't quite keep up that ridiculous pace, but he may continue to light up defenses.
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How will the Bills contain Brady and the Pats offense? First, they'll have to control the ball on offense with a steady running attack led by Fred Jackson, who has 229 rushing yards and two TDs in two games. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to continue his hot start in which he has 472 passing yards, seven TDs and just one interception thus far. Stevie Johnson, David Nelson and Scott Chandler have done a nice job catching Fitzpatrick's passes. The three of them have combined for six of Fitzpatrick's seven passing TDs. Nelson caught the game-winner in the final minute of the win over the Raiders on Sunday. The Bills will certainly have to not turn the ball over and their defense will have to force a few turnovers. That may be difficult but the Bills need to dominate in terms of time of possession and number of possessions to have a chance to win this game. With how strong the Pats offense is, it's unlikely the Bills defense will win that battle, but they can come up with a turnover or two and control the ball on offense to keep Brady off the field.
In order for the Patriots to win this game, they'll have to continue moving the ball down the field at will and converting red zone trips into six points. The Patriots will be fine as long as they don't turn the ball over and the Bills don't find a way to stop Brady's passing attack, which is highly unlikely. The scary part is that the Patriots have dominated offensively really without Chad Ochocinco, who has just three receptions in two games. It's been Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and the Patriots tight ends (Aaron Hernandez, who will likely miss the Bills game with an injury, and Rob Gronkowski).
The line is this game is very curious. The Bills are 2-0 and are at home but are getting no respect from Vegas. How are the Bills a 9-poing underdog in this one? Or are the Patriots getting too much respect from Vegas? This game will certainly answer a lot of questions in terms of gauging both of these teams early in the season.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: So much is made of the Pats offense being so good, that few realize that their defense isn't stopping anybody. This is one of the most valuable betting lines I've ever seen in an NFL game. Take the Bills at +9.
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