Note: If you're looking for the 2014 AFC Championship game matchup between these teams, please go here: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Pick .
New England Patriots (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, NFL Week 15, Sunday, December 18, 2011, Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado, TV: CBS
by Scotty L, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NE -6/DEN +6
Over/Under Total: 46
Bet the Pats/Broncs game using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL work for deposits: Sportsbetting.
The New England Patriots head West to face the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos. Denver is the story of the league at the moment, with QB Tim Tebow on an incredible run, going 7-1 as a starter, including 6 straight wins. In each of his last 4 games, he has led his team to dramatic comeback victories. The story is far from over, but what he has managed has bordered on the incredible. New England, meanwhile, is a on a nice little run of their own--winning their last 5 straight games to go to 10-3.
Denver is 31st in passing yards, 23rd in total yards, and 21st in points scored. Tebow is completing under 50% of his passes and has only 1290 yards in the air in 8 starts and appearances in 3 other games. But this is one time where you can throw out the stats. Tebow has shown a flair for magic that supersedes any numerical breakdown. 7-1 as a starter is certainly the only pertinent stat when analyzing Tebow.
The Broncos have the best run attack in the league. Willis McGahee (199-920-4) is having a resurgent year, with Tebow chiming in with 517 yards and 3 touchdowns of his own. Facing a Patriots “D” that is last against the pass, maybe Tebow will air it out a bit more. Eric Decker is a fine receiver, but their pass catching crew certainly lacks depth, especially when compared to the Patriots.
With the game-planning prowess of the Patriots’ coaching staff, Tebow will face a stiff challenge. The Patriots “D” has issues, but with Tebow’s liabilities as a thrower, they should do well keying in on the Broncos’ run. Then again, that has been the plan of the last 6 teams who fell to the Broncos. The Patriots, however, present some problems unlike what the Broncos have been facing lately.
During their 5-game winning streak, New England has scored at least 31 in each game. QB Tom Brady has thrown one interception in the last 4 games. WR Wes Welker is up to 100 catches. Exploding TE Rob Gronkowski has caught 9 touchdown passes in the last 5 games. Even 3rd and 4th options Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch would be the leading receivers on some teams--including the Broncos.
YOU'RE SIMPLY WASTING MONEY IF YOU'RE STILL BETTING ON GAMES AT -110 ODDS. START SAVING TODAY BY MAKING THE SWITCH TO -105 ODDS AT 5DIMES
The Broncos have beaten (in order) the Raiders, the Chiefs, the Jets, the Chargers, the Vikings, and the Bears. While that is nothing to sneeze at and 4 of those games were on the road, these are teams that had QB and major injury issues, who weren’t in good form, and whose offenses are not the same level as the Patriots. And needing last-second miracles to win these games is certainly inspirational, but will they be able to keep pace with the Patriots to make a comeback possible?
Against the Patriots, the Broncos will be facing their toughest opponent of the Tebow tenure, a peaking squad with a history of great success. Then again, this is the 2nd straight road game for New England and they looked a little ragged at Washington on Sunday, playing the Redskins on mostly even terms in a 34-27 win. A similar performance in Denver on Sunday could spell trouble for the Patriots. Theoretically, the Broncos should be feeling more urgency, with a narrow lead in the AFC West and a looser grip on postseason possibilities than what the Patriots enjoy at 10-3.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The rationale for taking Denver in this game is solid. You’re getting a home team at a difficult place to play on a 6-game winning streak with a quarterback that has caught lightning in a bottle--and getting 6 points to boot. But even if Denver loses, that doesn’t take away from what they have accomplished and with the sliding Bills and Chiefs next on the schedule, they can still absorb a loss and come out on top. Look for the Patriots to put this one out of range so that not even Tebow can come back. The Broncos will surge late, but the Patriots will put enough points up to escape Denver with the win and cover. Take the New England Patriots minus 6 points.
Preseason NFL Picks - There's a myth that pre-season NFL betting is a crapshoot. Many times a coach will divulge his gameplan (and stick with it). A handicappers dream!
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move. Who will cover the spread this week? Our line move plays!
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
Bookies Picks - (Coming Soon!) Each week, we'll post which side the bookies are on. Please note: These are not OUR picks. We're simply reporting the teams the bookies need to cover the spread in order for them to win. Games receiving equal action on both sides will not be factored into these records.
Office Pool Picks - (Coming Soon!) You asked for it and you got it! Each week, we'll post our predictions to win each game straight up so that you can RULE your office pool!
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
2014 NFL Predictions - Badger makes projections on each team's record and whether or not they'll go over or under their posted season win totals at the sportsbooks.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 49. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too!
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Bovada - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits! Offers a 50% sign-up bonus up to $250 FREE!
Sportsbook - Deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE! Your credit card WILL work here!
GTBets - You get to select 2 NFL teams and get a FREE half point every time you bet them! Offers a generous 100% bonus on deposits of $100 to $500! One of the best at accepting credit cards for deposits!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Super Bowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets. No need to go to Vegas! You can bet the big game online!
Weekly Fantasy Football - If you drafted a crappy team or the injury bug has bit you and wrecked your season, we've got something really cool to turn you on to that will change the way you play fantasy sports forever!
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.