New England Patriots (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Monday September 12th, 2011 7:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 1
Sun Life Stadium Miami, Florida
By Jay Horne, Professional Sports Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: NE -7/MIA +7
Over/Under Total: 45
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The Miami Dolphins will have the luxury of hosting the first Monday Night Football Game of the new NFL season when they host the New England Patriots at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins look to rebound after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2010. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they will start their season off against one of the best teams in the NFL by way of the New England Patriots. In fact, the Patriots dominated their AFC East rivals in 2010 by outscoring Miami 79-21 combined in their two meetings. This season the Patriots have added more talent on both sides of the ball and looked poised to make a run at another AFC Championship.
New England added two big names on both sides of the ball over the off-season despite both players having well-known character issues. On offense, the Patriots signed WR Chad Ochocinco in hopes to find another weapon for QB Tom Brady. It has been stated that Ochocinco's work ethic has declined over the past few years, which reflect his numbers on the field. However, he is still a great athlete that can be a big time player in the Patriots' offense. If Ochocinco can stay focused, there is not any reason to expect that he will not be a big contributor for the offense. Fortunately for Ochocinco, he will not have to carry the offense along in the receiving game like he has with some of his prior teams. WR Wes Welker was the team's leading receiver last season with 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 scores. Considering the fact Welker is healthier this season, he should be primed for an even better season. If both guys stay healthy, this should be an even more dangerous Patriots offense in 2011.
Despite little receiving help in 2010, QB Tom Brady still posted dominant numbers. Brady completed 66% passing for 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It's hard to believe that Brady could improve on those numbers from last season, but it is also very possible if the receiving core stays healthy. As good as the Patriots are on offense; Coach Belichick hopes they will also be on the defensive side of the ball. New England was inconsistent in 2010 giving up over 360 yards per game in a defense that ranked 25th overall.
This season New England added troubled DT Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. Haynesworth's previous troubles have been well documented, but he is still one of the most dominating forces among the defensive front in the NFL when he wants to be. Sure Haynesworth has been a nuisance in the past, but this could be his last opportunity to play football as well. Considering the fact Haynesworth is not making ridiculous amounts of money any longer by sitting on the bench, I really expect him to come out and be a force defensively. With the help of some additional depth among the defensive front, the Patriots should be an improved bunch in 2011 overall.
Miami on the other hand is a team with a lot more questions entering 2011. QB Chad Henne took over the starting job in 2010, but was plagued by inconsistency completing 61% for 3,301 yards with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In fact, it was the 2nd straight season that Henne finished the year with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. This season Henne will again be the starter in possibly what will be his make or break year for the Dolphins.
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In the receiving game, the Dolphins are led by WR Brandon Marshall who is among the best receivers in the NFL. In 2010, Marshall caught 86 passes for 1,014 yards with 3 touchdowns. While those numbers are not staggering, they are pretty solid if you consider how much Miami struggled in the passing game. Marshall is a guy that can potentially lead this Miami team with big play ability if someone (Henne) can just get him the ball on a consistent basis. One of the bigger questions for the Miami offense in 2011 will be the search for a rushing game. Both starting running backs from 2010 in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown departed from the team over the off-season. The Dolphins did acquire running back Reggie Bush from New Orleans. However, Bush has yet to prove that he can be an every down back in the NFL. Bush has had some brilliant moments catching passes out of the backfield during his tenure with the Saints, but has yet to prove he can be a reliable every down threat. If Bush fails to yield the threat of a rushing game, it will make things even more difficult for the struggling Henne at quarterback.
Defensively, the Dolphins return the majority of a group that ranked 6th overall last season giving up only 309 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is loaded with talent. Leading the group is LB Cameron Wake. Wake recorded the 2nd most sacks in the NFL last season with 14 total while earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Most believe the defense will be every bit as solid this season as they gained more experience over the off-season. Therefore, the Miami offense's ability to score points will likely be the determining factor in deciding if the Dolphins have a successful season.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The simple fact here is the Dolphins are retracting and the Patriots are progressing from a team stand point. The Patriots appear to have an offense that could virtually become unstoppable this season and it is hard to believe that an offense as inconsistent as Miami will be able to keep pace. Therefore, I think this is another New England blowout just like their last 2 meetings over Miami. Take New England -7. Good Luck!
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