New England Patriots (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Week 10 NFL, Sunday, November 13, 2011, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., TV: NBC
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NE +1/NYJ -1
Over/Under Total: 47.5
Bet the Pats/J-E-T-S game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits: BetOnline.
Two of the three teams that currently sit atop the AFC East standings with 5-3 records will try and settle things on the football field in primetime this weekend when the New England Patriots travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in America.
New England has remained in the AFC East title hunt despite a two-game losing streak, including last week’s, 24-20, loss at home to the New York Giants in a much-hyped rematch of Super Bowl 42. The G-men used pretty much the same formula that worked for them in the Super Bowl, sacking quarterback Tom Brady (twice) and bringing tons of pressure to force turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles), then using a late score with 15 seconds remaining to take home a huge victory.
After a 2-3 start, the Jets have fought their way back into a first-place tie by winning three straight games, including a solid, 27-11, victory last week last week on the road over the Buffalo Bills, the third team tied at 5-3 at the top of the division. The Jets won using an old formula … a time-consuming ground game on offense and a strong defense that forced three turnovers and held the Bills 15 points below their season average.
Now these two will play a crucial game on national television Sunday Night with not only the future of the AFC East on the line, but all sorts of extra AFC playoff ramification included in the mix.
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The thought of the Patriots, Brady and coach Bill Bilichick losing three straight games is nearly unthinkable for most bettors and fans, but the simple fact is that they just are not playing very good football right now, especially on defense. But a look at the remaining schedule for the Patriots reveals they could probably survive a loss to the Jets on Sunday, with only one tough game left (at Philly Nov. 27th) and a bunch of patsies (Indy, KC, Den., Miami, Wash.) before hosting the Bills in the season finale.
For the Jets Sunday’s game is a little more vital. Not only do they hope to avenge a loss to the Pats earlier to split the season series, but with game at Philly and one against their city-rival Giants, as well as one against the Dolphins in Miami where they always seem to struggle, the road ahead of the Jets would be a little more bump should they stumble this weekend.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas are expecting a great game come Sunday, setting the opening point spread with the host New York Jets as 1-point favorites. So far the early money at the window agrees with the number too, since it hasn’t moved much since it opened with the exception of going up the hook to 1.5 at a few offshore sportsbooks on the Web.
The over/under total opened at 47.5 and has also seen little to no line movement in the early going, although there are a few books that have dropped the hook to make the number 47 and bring the push back into play.
Brady and the New England offense have now gone three straight weeks with scoring 20 points or less, something that hasn’t happened in ages. But its no secret why they have struggled of late, as a lack of a consistent running game (111 ypg – 17th) and no real deep threat in the passing game has caused defenses to stack the line and disrupt the timing of Brady and the Pats 3-step and 5-step passing game.
Think about it. Sure BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Kevin Faulk are nice running backs, but neither is a 20- to 30-carry feature back that can pound it between the tackles all game. The same can be said of Wes Welker and Deion Branch, who are possession receivers and not the type of guys that will stretch the field. Chad Ochocinco was brought in to be that guy, but he’s more mouth than substance and clearly not getting the job done.
All of this plays right into the hands of the Jets defense, who with their stable of bump-and-run corners (Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson) will likely get right up on the line of scrimmage and make those receivers earn every yard they get. The physicality of the Jets linebacking crew will try and disrupt the releases of the Pats double tight end sets too, although they may have a hard time matching up with Aaron Hernandez and could be forced to use Jim Leonard or Brodney Pool over the top to take away Brady’s security blanket of tight ends over the middle of the field.
When the Jets have the ball on offense it will be interesting to see if they allow quarterback Mark Sanchez to let loose against the Patriots league worst pass defense. Normally a run-first team with Shonn Greene and LaDainion Tomlinson, I fully expect to see a lot of jump balls to Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes this week as the Jets try to take advantage of the Pats weak secondary.
Burress especially should have a big game, because there’s no one on the Patriots defense that can match his set of tools as far as leaping ability, height and hands. If they choose to double team the outside receivers, then the Jets will run the ball or find tight end Dustin Keller over the middle.
The way the Patriots defense is playing these days, it’s hard to see how they can win unless they simple outscore teams every week. That will be a tall task against a Jet defense that is ranked 8th overall (319 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (20.4 ppg).
These two played a tight game back in week five, a 30-21 victory for New England at home in Foxborough. In that game the Jets offense struggled bad, as penalties and failure on third down caused them to play from behind all game long. But quite honestly, it seems like light years ago as the Jets offense has improved a lot since that early October game and we all know how far the Pats defense has fallen since that time too.
New York hasn’t lost at home to the Pats since the 2008 season, winning two straight with both of them coming in low-scoring fashion (16-9 in 2009, 28-14 in 2010).
When you look at the head-to-head betting trends you have to like the Jets chances, since the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six games. New York is also 19-9 ATS against an AFC foe in their last 28 games.
But the Patriots have treated New York like their own home, going 10-2 in their last 12 visits to the Big Apple (the two ATS losses coming in their last two visits), and 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a straight up loss.
The over could be the safest bet though, going 5-0 in New England’s last five games versus rivals in the AFC East (16-5 vs. AFC overall). The over is also 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings, and 7-3 versus their last 10 games against an AFC East rival.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Count me as one of those people who thinks that the Patriots can’t lose three games in a row. But with their God-awful defense, I can’t wager any of my bankroll on them with a clear conscience. Brady and Co. bust out this week, but so do Sanchez and the Jets. I’m taking the over of 47.5.
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