New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Point Spread - Pick

New Orleans Saints (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 10 NFL, Sunday, November 13, 2011, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga., TV: FOX
by Badger, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: N.O. +1/ATL -1
Over/Under Total: 50

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With the halfway point of the NFL regular season already in the rearview mirror the importance of Sunday’s NFC South showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome is magnified even more than the usual battle for first place.

For the Saints, a win on the road this Sunday would not only keep them in the proverbial driver’s seat in the NFC South race, but it also would provide them a justified sense of accomplishment with their upcoming bye week to follow and a full 15 days off between games. With both remaining games against division rivals Atlanta and Carolina at the end of the year scheduled to be played at home in the Superdome, a win would certainly put the Saints in prime position in the race for the division title.

For Atlanta, Sunday’s game is another chance to continue their climb back into the NFC South title race and overall NFC playoff picture after a horrible 2-3 start to the season. With games against all three divisional foes still remaining on the schedule, it’s not necessarily a must-win game for the Falcons, but it would get them back into the conversation of the top-tier teams in the NFC and give them important tie-breaking points should they need them later down the road.

The Falcons have seemingly turned their season around from the brink by winning their third straight game last Sunday, a 31-7 victory over the winless Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw two long touchdowns to rookie Julio Jones, and the Falcons continued to go back to the old-school ways of pounding the ball on the ground with the running game (163 yards on 41 carries) in the lopsided win over the Colts.

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But the Saints also enter the showdown this weekend fresh off of an important momentum-gaining victory, getting revenge for an earlier loss with a, 27-16, win over the pesky Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans raced out to a 24-9 lead early in the fourth quarter and held on despite a late Buccaneer rally to notch the important victory and move to the front of the pack in the NFC South standings.

The point spread for this game has been one of the biggest line movers of the week so far. Las Vegas originally opened the game with the Saints as slim 1-point favorites on the road, but the early steam from the sharp bettors moved it fast and quick to where it is now, as either a pick em’ or with Atlanta as 1-point favorites at home.

The over/under total has also seen its share of line movement too, opening at 51 late on Sunday and dropping after the first few days to either 50 or 49.5, depending on which sportsbook you’re using.

On the surface this game looks like a solid battle of two great offenses, led by two great quarterbacks in Ryan and the Saints Drew Brees. For the most part it probably will be too. But if you flip the coin you could argue that defense is going to be the key in this game, as in, which one of these defenses will rise to the challenge of stopping the other team’s offense.

Brees is having an outstanding year and is second only to Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in quarterback rating this season (100.6). The Saints rack up a boatload of yards every week (445 ypg -1st), put big numbers up on the scoreboard (31.9 ppg – 2nd), and they have so many weapons that players like tight end Jimmy Graham and scat-back Darren Sproles are starting to emerge as their biggest playmakers even though this is the same offense that boasts guys like Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas as “role” players.

Atlanta’s defense has made teams earn their yardage on the ground this season, ranked 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed with a 96.5 average. But their secondary is not as strong as it needs to be (244 ypg – 19th) to keep up with the formations and looks the Saints will throw at them, and they also “only” have 16 sacks this season as a team, so it’s not like the Falcons can bring pressure to make up for their pass defense weakness at times.

If the Saints force the Falcons to play catch up by turning this game into a shootout it will put Atlanta at a disadvantage too, because that is not how Ryan and the Falcons have been successful on offense. Ryan has struggled at times this season (83.3 QB rating – 18th), mostly when he has been forced to try and throw to get back into games (i.e. Chicago opener, vs. Green Bay).

Atlanta has focused its attack during their three-game win streak by giving the ball to Michael Turner more often, which has opened up Tony Gonzales behind the linebackers and the Falcons play-action passing game for big plays over the top of cheating defenses.

They’ll need to keep that focus this week against the Saints too, because not only are the Saints front seven susceptible to the running game at time (119 ypg – 17th), but they also like to blitz a lot to bring pressure. A solid start by Turner and the Falcons run game will help protect Ryan from the blitz, keep them out of third-and-long situations and also help to keep the ball out of the hands of Brees and the Saints offense.

Last season was sort of unusual in the fact that these two teams beat each other in the other team’s home stadium. Atlanta went on the road in September and beat the Saints, 27-24, in OT at the Superdome, only to have the Saints return the favor late in December at the Georgia Dome, 17-14. As a whole though, the Saints have won four of the last five meetings and eight of the last 10 going back to the 2006 season.

Atlanta has been better to sports bettors though, covering the points spread in three of the last four. That is a bit deceiving though, as they are just 2-3 ATS in the last five games at home in the A-T-L in this series. The Falcons are also just 1-1 ATS in the two games they’ve been favored in, last year’s game in the Georgia Dome (lost 17-14 when favored by 2) and in the 2008 season (won 34-20 when favored by 1).

It’s hard to get a grasp on the betting trends in this game, since the Falcons started the week as home underdogs but since then the line has moved to make the Saints the underdogs. Either way, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

That would favor the Saints, except the Saints are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus the NFC South and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Atlanta on the other hand is 7-3 ATS against the NFC South in their last 10 tries.

The under also looks like a strong trend play, going 12-2 in the Saints last 14 games against their rivals in the NFC South and 3-0-2 in the falcons last five versus the NFC South.

Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Even though the game is a pick em, I must say I’m a little scared to pull the trigger on either of them. I think New Orleans is the better team, but the Falcons are at home and playing good football right now. So I’m going to break the trend and go with the over, especially since the number is coming down despite two good offenses playing on a fast track indoors in the Georgia Dome. I’m taking the over of 50.

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