New Orleans Saints (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), Week 4 NFL, Sunday October 2nd, 1:00 PM Eastern, Everbank Field (Natural Grass), Jacksonville Florida
By Jeff Hochman, Professional NFL Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: NO -6.5/Jax +6.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5
Bet the Saints/Jags game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll get a generous sign-up bonus: BetOnline.
The New Orleans Saints take to the road and play the Jacksonville Jaguars for just the fifth time ever in this week four matchup.
The road team is coming off a sloppy win at home as they were out-gained for the first time this season. Drew Brees was intercepted twice, but made up for it with 370 yards passing and three second-half touchdown passes. Jimmy Graham is an emerging star at tight end, and had 4 catches for 100 yards with a touchdown. The defense gave up 473 yards to the Texans, but should have an easier time of it going up against a shaky offense. Jacksonville is averaging 280 yards of offense good for 9 points per game. This from a team that released its starting quarterback just before the start of the regular season.
Jacksonville is coming off a hard-fought 16-10 loss at Carolina last week. With that straight up and against-the-spread loss the Jags fell to 1-9 ATS last ten games, including preseason and dating back to last year. Blaine Gabbert, making his first career start, completed 12 of 21 passes and had three fumbled snaps which the Jags recovered all of them. They could only muster 257 yards of offense and had eight critical penalties.
This game is not too difficult to handicap for the square players. They will look at the quarterbacks and make the assumption that Brees will have a huge advantage going up against a rookie, who makes just his second career start. I like him. He can make all the throws and has poise in the pocket. But, he is a rookie and that means plenty of growing pains. New Orleans is coming off three marque games against Green Bay, Chicago, and Houston. This game marks the first of three straight road games for the Super Bowl champs of two seasons ago.
M. Jones-Drew has 307 rushing yards in three games and a nifty 4.7 yards per carry average. He will be going against a Saints' defense that allowed 4.4 yards per rush last week. On the flip side, the Jaguars are allowing only 83 rushing yards per game. I really believe the Jags will be able to put some points on the board in this game at home. They can't go the whole season averaging just 9 points per game on offense. Just saying! Jacksonville also brings in the better defense by over 90 yards and 9 points.
Did you know... tha you can lay -105 on football games instead of -110? Pencil out the numbers and see how much you'd be saving! It's HUGE! Find this great offer as well as 20 point teasers at the web's best sportsbook: 5Dimes.
As I mentioned before, this will be the fifth meeting between these teams and each team has won twice. The Saints are 3-1 ATS though and the last victory was in November of 2007. New Orleans won 41-24 as 3.5-point home favorites. The QB's in that game were Quinn Grey and Drew Brees. Brees threw for 445 yards and three touchdowns. Marques Colston had 10 receptions for 157 yards and has no chance at a repeat performance. He is OUT until at least week six.
Something has to give in this one. New Orleans is 1-9 ATS last ten vs. teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. On the bright side, Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS last five home games while New Orleans is 1-5 ATS last six road games.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: New Orleans Saints -6.5 (lean)
To be honest I have been going back and fourth on this game so maybe you should pass. I lean slightly to the road chalk, but it would not shock me to see a back door cover by the home team. The Saints are obviously the more talented team but that doesn't always get you the cover.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.