New Orleans Saints (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-6 SU, 0-6 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 8 NFL, Sunday, October 30, 2011, Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Mo., TV: FOX
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NO -14/STL +14
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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One week after destroying the winless Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees will get another chance to run up their stats against another of the NFL’s winless teams, the St. Louis Rams, when the Rams host the Saints in the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday.
Brees threw for 325 yards and five touchdowns and the Saints had over 550 yards of total offense in their embarrassing victory over the Colts on Sunday Night Football, 62-7. Putting the helplessness of the Colts to the side, the Saints did make progress in a few areas in the win, as the defense seems to be making progress and the offense didn’t skip a beat with head coach and main play-caller Sean Peyton out of the equation in the press box all game.
The Rams might not be much of a challenge either, as they have yet to win this season after six tries including a lopsided, 34-7, loss at Dallas last weekend. Without quarterback Sam Bradford the Rams were only able to muster up 265 yards of total offense with backup A.J. Feeley, and the defense continues to look like a turnstile as they allowed the Cowboys to amass 445 yards including 295 yards rushing in the 27-point defeat.
Even though the loss of Bradford is a huge one for the Rams, they have yet to really play well at all this season and time may be starting to run out on head coach Steve Spagnuolo. If Brees and the Saints lay another whoopin’ on the Rams this week in their own house, it’s hard to imagine the Rams management taking it lightly since this season began with so much optimism and hopes of competing for an NFC West division title.
Since the status of Bradford and his injured ankle is still up in the air (listed as questionable), oddsmakers waited until Wednesday before listing the opening point spread for this game. As expected, the Saints opened as large 13-point favorites, but within minutes the number went up to 14 at a majority of the offshore sportsbooks on the Internet.
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The over/under total also wasn’t released until mid-week, opening at 47.5 when it was finally put up on the board at most sports books. There are a few books that have dropped the hook to 47, but for the most part there hasn’t been much line movement in the total since it was released.
Although the status of Bradford will make a little bit of difference in this game offensively, when you break it down it’s a classic example of the haves versus the have-nots.
The Saints and Brees are the NFL’s best at scoring points, with an average of 34.1 per game that was fudged a little with their 62-point output last week.
The Rams score 9.3 points per game, the worst in the NFL thus far.
The Saints rank just behind the Patriots in passing yards (341 ypg) and total yards (467.1 ypg) on offense, whereas the Rams are way down the chart with their averages of 208.2 (23rd) and 301.2 (28th) yards per game, respectively.
Add the Rams league-worst run defense into the equation (allowing 184 ypg) and their second-to-last points allowed mark of 28.5 per game and you have a game that couldn’t be any more lopsided on paper even if you tried to fix the numbers.
The only aspect of this game that might point in the Rams favor is the fact they are playing at home in the Edward Jones Dome, except that the Saints are also a dome team built for speed on the carpet. Again, all signs point to a lopsided affair in favor of the Saints, which is why the oddsmakers have opened up the game with them as two touchdown favorites.
The Saints beat the Rams last season at the Superdome, 31-13, as just 9.5-point favorites. But when you look back into the history of these two teams the series the Saints only hold a slight 6-4 SU advantage. But many of the Rams victories in the series happened back in the “Greatest Show on Turf” days of old, and even then the Rams are just 1-4 SU at home in St. Louis.
The Rams have covered the point spread in three of the last four meetings though (going back to 2005), including the last time these two played in St. Louis when the Rams were ironically 14-point underdogs (in a 28-23 Saints win).
With the kind of offense these two teams have had over the years, its no wonder the over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. The over has an even better mark of 7-1 in the last eight games played in St. Louis, so if you bet following the trends than the over could be your wager this week.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Personally, there is very little value in this game at all as far as a wagering standpoint goes. I hate to lay two touchdowns in any NFL game, even though this game looks like it could be worse. But if you’re looking for an angle and absolutely must make a bet for this game, I’d look at the over of 47.5 with the hopes that the Saints go over the total by themselves.
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