New Orleans Saints (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-7 SU, 3-5
ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 10 NFL, Sunday, November 15, 2009, Edward Jones Dome,
St. Louis, Mo., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Saints -13.5/Rams +13.5
Over/Under: 50
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Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum in the NFC will meet in the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday when the perfect New Orleans Saints face off against the one-win St. Louis Rams on the Fox Network.
The Saints remained undefeated on the season with a 30-20 victory over their NFC South rival Carolina Panthers last weekend. New Orleans fell behind quickly and actually trailed the Panthers 17-6 at halftime last Sunday, but the league’s most potent offense kicked it back into gear outscoring Carolina 24-3 in the second half to pull away for a deceiving 10-point victory at home in the Superdome.
The Rams will come into the game well rested and in good spirits too, since they spent their bye week last Sunday savoring their first and only victory of the season two weeks ago with a 17-10 win over the Detroit Lions. The Rams used a touchdown pass from kicker Josh Brown and a 149-yard effort from running back Steven Jackson to drop the Lions on the road, and they’ll be looking to parlay that momentum in order to shock the world and knock the Saints from their perch atop the NFC on Sunday.
As you would expect, the oddsmaker in Las Vegas have installed the Saints as a giant chalk in this matchup with the point spread opening with New Orleans as 14-point favorites. The ridiculous number has come down to 13.5 at a few offshore sportsbooks, but the two- touchdown line has not swayed enough of the betting public to side with the Rams so the number remains at minus -14 at a majority of the books, with one book at -15 (5Dimes) and one book at -13 (Planet Hollywood).
The over/under total opened at 50 and has held firm at the number through early action at the window.
Offensively this game is as lopsided as it can get.
The Saints are the league’s most prolific offense, leading the NFL in scoring with a 37.9 points per game average. The Rams … the league’s worst at just 9.6 points per game.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees has thrown for 17 touchdowns already and will probably eclipse the 2,500-yard mark in the game on Sunday. The Rams duo at quarterback haven’t even crossed the 1,000-yard mark yet, and as funny as it sounds, the Rams kicker Josh Brown has one less touchdown throw than Kyle Boller (two) and two less than starter Marc Bulger (three). Ouch.
About the only phase of offense where the Rams can compete is with Jackson in the running game, but even there the Saints trio of running backs average 145.9 yards per game (5th) compared to Jackson and the Rams 116.1 yards per game (14th). Plus, the Rams are usually behind by multiple scores so the running game is a mute point.
Defensively it’s lopsided as well, but not nearly as drastic as it is on offense.
The Saints are in the middle of the pack statistically, but they feature an opportunistic ball-hawking unit that scores almost as many points per game as the Rams offense. They returned another fumble for a score last week against the Panthers, their seventh touchdown scored on defense this season.
The only problem is that the unit is banged up physically, with safety Darren Sharper and corner Jabari Greer listed as questionable on the injury report. The run defense also gave up 182 yards on the ground last week against Carolina, but the Panthers run game is way better than the Rams so it might not mean much.
The Rams defense was expected to get an overhaul with new coach Steve Spagnuolo at the helm, but even he isn’t a miracle worker. The Rams are 27th overall (373.4 ypg) and have been giving up way too many big plays (27.6 ppg – 29th) for Spags to turn the defense loose and blitz like he used to do every play with the Giants.
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Going back to the days of the Greatest Show on Turf, the Rams own a big advantage over the Saints in the head-to-head matchup, winning three of the last four straight up as well as against the spread. The last time they met, in 2007, the Rams put a 37-28 victory in the books at the Superdome. The only Saints victory over that four game span was a 28-25 overtime triumph in St. Louis back in 2004.
Played out over the last 10 meetings the Rams own a 6-4 SU record and a 6-4 ATS record. The over has a solid 7-3 record in that span, including a 5-1 record in the last six games dating back to 2000. The over is also 6-1 in the last seven games played in St. Louis.
Badger’s Pick: The Rams have had two weeks to prepare, but that matters little. I never like eating chalk, but I honestly don’t see how the Rams can keep this game close. Even at 14 points. I also like the under again this week because I don’t think the Rams will score much and 50 is a big number. A score like 42-7, or 38-10 still falls under the total. Take the Saints minus the 13.5-points if you like, but I’m playing it safe with a small play on the under of 50.
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