New York Giants (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-4 SU, 6-4
ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Thursday, November 26, 2009, NFL Week 12, Invesco Field at
Mile High, Denver, Colo., TV: NFL Network
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Giants -6/Broncos +6
Over/Under: 42
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The New York Giants will be playing to try and stay with the pack in the NFC playoff hunt on Thanksgiving night at Invesco Field in Denver, but the stakes are even greater for the Broncos to get off the ‘schnid in the altitude and atmosphere of Mile High before their shooting star flames out in the AFC.
The Broncos are falling as fast as they shot out of the gate, losing four in a row to drop their 6-0 start to 6-4. With a hobbled quarterback in Kyle Orton the Broncos were unable to mount much offense last weekend in their 32-3 loss to AFC West rival San Diego, opening the door for another late-season collapse to start haunting the Broncos and head coach Josh McDaniels.
On the surface New York will be happy they beat a pesky Atlanta Falcons team in overtime, 34-31, to finally snap their four-game slide last Sunday. But deep down they know they still have a lot of issues to deal with, beginning with the fact they gave up a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to force overtime.
Even though many in the audience will already be sleeping with bellies full of Turkey and fixing’s, the boys themselves at the NFL Network are hoping that at least the degenerates who know that the New York Giants opened as 5-point favorites will be tuning in to watch their money make money. In fact, the bettors at the window early have moved the point spread to Giants minus -6 at most offshore sportsbooks.
The over/under total opened at 42 and has held firm at 42 during the early steam.
One thing is for certain, both teams in Thursday’s late game learned from last week how important their quarterback is to their success.
The Giants Eli Manning was near the top of his game throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns in the victory over the Falcons, and at times seemed to thrive in the passing game (26-for-39) while the Falcons focused on stopping the Giants run (held to 88 yards, 3.3 ypc). Manning will have to play at that level again this week because the Broncos feature the NFL’s 3rd-best pass defense in allowing just 182.5 yards per game.
That is unless the Giants take advantage of the Broncos weaker run defense (115.3 ypg – 19th), which could be hard to do with starting running back Brandon Jacobs listed as probable with a dinged-up knee.
The Broncos learned just how valuable Orton is to their offense when journeyman veteran Chris Simms started in Orton’s place and the Broncos offense was ugly to start the Chargers game. With Orton the Broncos are 19th in the league in passing (210.6 ypg), which is saying very little, but with Simms behind center it was even less threatening down field.
Orton came in to play and did well enough (15-of-29, 171 yards, INT) to eliminate any doubt about who should be the starter on the short week, him or Simms. An injured Orton needs help from the Broncos running game, which is struggling this year only averaging 112.4 yards per game (16th) and was again rendered a mute point with the offense playing catch up for most of the game.
The Giants have fought to regain their unpredictable nature on defense again, the way they began the season with a blitz-heavy diet of pressure and scheme, but they are still 2nd overall in the league allowing 280.3 yards a game. Even playing shorthanded without safety Kenny Phillips and linebacker Antonio Pierce, the Giants defense is still good enough to force Denver into third-and-long situations and make the already mobile-challenged Orton, with a bad ankle, a sitting duck to the blitz.
The last time these teams met was in Denver back in 2005 when Eli Manning hit Amani Toomer with a touchdown pass with 5 seconds to play in the Giants thrilling, 24-23, victory. Take it for what it’s worth though, since every player in the boxscore on both teams with the lone exception of Manning is either playing elsewhere or not at all.
The Giants snapped their losing streak against the Falcons, but they still didn’t cover the point spread for the fifth week in a row making them 4-5-1 this season.
The Broncos tale of two seasons follows them at the betting window too, as their 6-0 ATS start has since been evened out with an 0-4 ATS slide coinciding with the four-game losing streak.
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The Giants seem to have most of the betting trends pointing in their favor as well, including a 24-11 ATS record when playing on short weeks (6 or less days rest) and a stellar 12-5 ATS record in the second half of the season against teams with winning records the last few years.
The one thing going for the Broncos right now may be the fact that they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last three seasons following a huge loss to a key AFC West rival, so they do seem to forget quickly and bounce back.
Badger’s Pick: Due to the questionable status of Orton’s ankle, it’s hard to really know what I’m getting. Normally I’m all over the 6- point dog at home, but without Orton the Broncos are a non-bet. I may make a game-time decision to pull the trigger on a Denver side bet at plus +6-points, but otherwise I’m staying away and dosing in and out of sleep by this point Thursday.
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