New York Giants (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-5 SU, 4-7-1 ATS), 8:20 p.m. EST, Week 14 NFL, Sunday, December 11, 2011, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas, TV: NBC
by Badger, Pro Footbll Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +3.5/Dallas. -3.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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It’s not exactly the battle of NFC heavyweights it would have been in past seasons, but when the New York Giants travel to Cowboys Stadium to play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in America this weekend at least the winner will earn the edge in the late-season battle for the NFC East title.
With a weird NFL scheduling quirk that has the Giants and Cowboys playing each other twice in the final four weeks of the regular season, it’s fairly certain that one of these two teams will eventually win the NFC East title so there is still a lot on the line in primetime on Sunday. While the title won’t be won this week, the loser will face a big uphill battle to make the season finale between these two a battle for the title.
The Giants have the bigger challenge come Sunday. The G-men enter the game in the midst of a four-game losing streak that continued last week with a last-second loss at home to the hands of the undefeated Green Bay Packers, 38-35. Already trailing the Cowboys by a full game in the NFC East standings, the Giants essentially finish the season out at home (Wash., at NYJ, Dallas), which makes this week’s game a prototypical “backs against the wall” game on the road in Dallas.
Dallas on the other hand can play a little looser knowing they are currently in the driver’s seat in the NFC East. The Cowboys are playing some of the best football of the season right now, despite snapping their four-game win streak with a, 19-13, loss at Arizona last Sunday, in a game they almost won in regulation if their own head coach wouldn’t have iced his own kicker with a timeout before a game-winning field goal.
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A win by Dallas would give them a solid two-game cushion, one they may need with a road test at Tampa and a home game against the now spoiler Philadelphia Eagles before their finale against the G-men in New York. But a loss will likely evoke memories of Tony Romo-led Dallas late-season fades of old for the Cowboys faithful and will certainly ratchet up the pressure for the final three games down the stretch.
With the “up for grabs” nature of the NFC East this season it’s no surprise that the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas would make this game up for grabs at the window too, listing the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites to open which is just the hook above the “standard” home-team advantage they usually hand out. True to form, action on the number has been mixed enough on both teams that only a few sportsbooks have dropped the hook to make it 3-points, with the rest of them standing firm at minus -3.5.
The over/under total opened at 49.5 and has dropped the half-point to 49 at a few books, and a full-point elsewhere to 48.5 at a majority of other sportsbooks on the Internet. What is interesting is that 49 would be the highest total these two teams have chased since 2006, if it closes that high come Sunday night.
Even though the Cowboys were winners of four in a row before last week, one could argue that it wasn’t the Dallas offense that has sparked the mid-season surge. If you take the 44-point outburst over the Bills during the win streak out, the Cowboys are scoring just 20 points a game the last five weeks and have gone into overtime twice because they have failed to put teams away in the fourth quarter.
What has sparked the Cowboys on offense in recent weeks has been the efficient play of Romo, with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions since the loss at New England back in mid-October (8-to-5 TD-INT before). Plus, the emergence of rookie DeMarco Murray at running back has done wonders to balance out the Cowboys run-pass attack on offense, making them harder to defend and keeping them on the field for more plays every week.
Dallas will face a Giants defense that is trying to get its collective head above water after back-to-back shootouts against the top two offenses in the league in New Orleans and Green Bay. Injuries continue to raid the depth of the Giants defense, which looked so good in an early November win over Tom Brady and the Patriots, but has slumped to 28th in the league overall with their recent struggles.
Part of the Giants problems on defense are due to the Giants offense, as quarterback Eli Manning and the offense have had a major struggle converting third-downs all season long. But those third-down struggles are due to the Giants lack of a running game on early downs (84 ypg rushing -32nd), and when the offense is built on a running game that has been AWOL all season it’s hard for there to be any consistency week to week.
Injuries have affected the G-men on offense too, as tackle Stacy Andrews and center David Baas missed last week due to injury and many if not all of Manning’s weapons on the perimeter have spent time during the season on the injury list or are still on it currently.
New York will face a Dallas defense that seems to be picking up steam as well. Ranked 11th in the league in overall defense (331 ypg) and scoring defense (20.3 ppg), the Cowboys have tightened up since the 34-point embarrassment on Monday Night to the Eagles, allowing just 16 points per game with a +7 takeaway ratio and 14 sacks since the defensive low-point of the season in Philly.
The Giants and their fans are hoping this season’s result play out a little like last season’s results, in the fact that both team’s won on the road in last year’s head-to-head series. The Giants went to Dallas in October and won a shootout, 41-35, before losing at home to the Cowboys in mid-November, 33-20. Actually, the Giants are probably hoping for 2009-like results, when the Giants swept the Cowboys series with a 33-31 win on the road in Dallas. The Giants do seem to play well in Dallas (5-2-1 ATS last eight games in the Lone Star state), and the underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head.
Historically the series is very even though, with a 5-5 SU mark and a 5-4-1 ATS mark in slight favor of the Giants over the years dating back to 2006.
The over may prove to be the best betting trend play in this game though, since it is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head. The over is also 11-4 in the Giants last 15 games as the underdog and 11-4 in Dallas’ last 15 home games in Cowboys Stadium.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Picking the side of a game in which neither team covers (combined 3-9 ATS in last six weeks) is not my idea of value. But I do lean to Dallas in this case simply because the Giants have faced a gauntlet in recent weeks (Philly, NO, GB) and I just don’t think they can get up for another big game on the road for the fourth week in a row. But knowing that the Giants seem to thrive in the must-win role, I’m going to hedge that bet and instead play on both teams playing inspired defense. I’m playing the under of 49.
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