New York Giants (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS), 4:30 p.m. EST, NFC Divisional Playoffs, Sunday, January 15th, 2012, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis., TV: FOX
by Badger, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +8.5/GB -8.5
Over/Under Total: 52.5
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The New York Giants will have to go on the road for the first time in the NFC playoffs, but at least the G-men will be playing in familiar tundra on the road at Lambeau Field, when they travel to face the Green Bay Packers in the last NFC Divisional Playoff round game Sunday on the Fox Network.
The Giants earned the trip to the top-seeded Packers by virtue of their suffocating defense in a, 24-2, victory over the Atlanta Falcons in the opening wildcard round last weekend. With a defense that has its swagger back and an offense with Eli Manning playing at a superstar level, the Giants are starting to look just like the team that won in Green Bay during their Super Bowl year in 2007-08.
GB is rested like the top-seed should be, with tackles Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga back along an offensive line that the Packers will desperately need to keep Aaron Rodgers upright against what is a revived Giants pass rush attack. The Pack will also get Greg Jennings back at receiver, so the high-powered Packers offense should be close to full strength just in time to face the red hot Giants this Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Make the Giants a +28.5 underdog (or the Packers +11.5) by placing them into a 20 point football teaser at 5Dimes.
These two teams even met a few weeks ago in week 13 action that saw the Packers escape with a last-second, 38-35, victory, so there’s certainly a quiet confidence coming from the Giants that they get a second chance to topple the reigning Super Bowl Champion Packers.
I know that Green Bay is one of the NFL’s biggest “public” teams so their betting lines are always weighted, but it appears that even the oddsmakers are expecting the Giants luck to finally wear off this weekend, setting the opening point spread as Green Bay as 9-point favorites at home.
With sharp bettors jumping all over the Giants as such large dogs, the number has quickly come down to Green Bay minus -8 in Las Vegas and the Packers minus -8.5 at some of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. Although you can still find a few offshore sportsbooks at -9, so shop around early to get the best value for your side.
The over/under total opened at 51.5 late on Sunday night and has since gone up the hook to 52 (in Las Vegas) or up the full point to 52.5 (mostly offshore) depending on where you wager.
Much will be made before the game about this Giants-Packers matchup looking like a rematch of the ’07-‘08 NFC Championship, but it’s dangerous to compare the two.
First off, the Packers offense under Rodgers is completely different than it was back in ‘07-‘08 under Brett Favre. Green Bay is so much more efficient (Rodger’s unreal 122.5 QB rating), much more dangerous on the outside (Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley) and more reliant on the passing game (307.8 ypg – 3rd) and four- and five-receiver sets then they did in ’07 with Favre.
With the Giants pass rush trio of Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora all peaking at the same time, much of the Packers success on offense will be dictated on how well they handle those three. I expect the Packers to use the four- and five-wide sets to spread the Giants defense out and force them to declare where they are coming from on the blitz/rush. Plus, with one of the Giants best cornerbacks Aaron Ross possibly missing the game (questionable – concussion), that gives the Packers even more reason to attack with the passing game on Sunday.
If the Packers can control how many players the Giants can bring on the pass rush by making them play coverage instead, it could solve some of their issues with injuries and a lack of continuity along the offensive line.
Green Bay will also have to deal with the distraction surrounding offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Philbin, who interviewed for the Jaguars job last week during the bye, is dealing with the off-the-field issue of his missing 21-year-old son, Michael, who fell through the ice on a local river and suspected to have drowned (found a body, but no ID yet).
When New York has the ball they will continue to focus on making teams stop Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs in the running game. The Giants running game that finished the year 32nd in rushing (89.2 ypg) is not the team the Giants have been putting on the field the past three weeks.
With Bradshaw and Jacobs keeping teams honest, Manning has picked apart defenses in play action and the Giants have enjoyed increased production on third down and on the scoreboard (28 ppg in L3, 24.6 ppg all season). Getting David Baas back at center has helped, but I would expect the Giants to give RT Kareem McKenzie some help with Clay Mathews on the edge on certain passing downs.
Mathews is about the only pass rush presence the Packers have these days, which explains why they give up a ton of yardage overall (411.6 ypg – 32nd), and it also explains why they have trouble stopping the passing game (299.8 ypg – 32nd). But they do create turnovers (+24 giveaway/takeaway, NFL-best 31 interceptions), and we all know that Manning has issues with interceptions from time to time (16 on season, 11 since week 9, but just one in last three games), so there’s an opportunity for some help from the Green Bay defense despite their poor numbers.
In their week 13 contest neither defense played all that well, with Green Bay giving up 447 yards to Manning who threw for 347 yards and three scores including a game-tying pass to Hakeem Nicks with 58 seconds left in the game. But Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four scores, and with 58 seconds he moved the ball close enough to set up kicker Mason Crosby for the game-winning 30-yard field goal as time expired.
The Giants covered as 7-point underdogs at home back in early December, and they also covered as 7.5-point underdogs in the NFC title game back in 2008 (and as 7-point dogs at Lambeau in 2004), so they know how to play well on the road and cash in at the window on the road too.
In fact, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these two teams, and underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five, so a lot of the betting trends point in favor of the G-men. New York is also 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff road games for an added trend.
But Green Bay is also 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games, 5-1-1 ATS in the Divisional playoffs and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
The over/under betting trends are mixed, with the under coming into play for most of the Giants trends (under is 7-1 in L8 playoff games; under 8-2 in L10 in January), and the over for most of the Packers trends (4-1 in L5 home playoff games; 25-9 in L34 as home favorite)
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Green Bay wins and covers convincingly.
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