Note: If you're looking for the 2013 Week 3 matchup between these teams, please go here: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Pick.
New York Jets (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS), Week 9 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 6, 2011, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +1/Buf -1
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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After a slow start, the New York Jets are now back on track and coming off their bye week. With a two-game win streak, the Jets will host the first place Buffalo Bills in an important AFC East divisional battle.
The Jets are one game back from the Bills and Patriots for the division lead. A loss will put them down two games in the division race, so this is an important game for the Jets. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a 23-0 win over the Washington Redskins coupled with a Patriots loss to the Steelers to force a first place tie in the division.
The Bills have been one of the surprise teams this season in the NFL. They got off to a 3-0 start, including a signature win over the Patriots after being down 21-0 at one point. Other than two 3-point road losses to the Bengals and Giants, the Bills have been spectacular. Their offense has been one of the best in the NFL, putting up 41 points against the Chiefs, 38 against the Raiders, 34 against the Patriots, and 31 against the Eagles. But their defense has been very good as well. They have allowed some points in games, but they lead the NFL in interceptions with 14 and are coming off a shutout victory over the Redskins.
The Jets had high expectations coming into the season but started off very lackluster. They opened the season with what some would call a "lucky" win over the Cowboys and later lost three in a row to the Raiders, Ravens and Patriots, all on the road. Therefore, they have an 0-3 road record so far this season, and of course this game against the Bills is on the road. Yes, the Jets won two in a row over the Dolphins and Chargers, but they're a different team away from home. Let's also keep in mind that the Bills are undefeated this season at home with a 4-0 record.
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The Bills offense is led by breakthrough star running back Fred Jackson, who is just more and more impressive each week. He has 721 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 27 receptions and 353 receiving yards. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has also been excellent. He has 1,739 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 67.7 completion percentage. His top target is Steve Johnson, who has 39 receptions for 439 yards and four touchdowns. David Nelson, who isn't far behind Johnson, has emerged as a viable second option for Fitzpatrick.
The Jets offense has not been nearly as effective as the Bills offense. Mark Sanchez has 1,545 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, a 55.8 completion percentage and another two rushing touchdowns. His top target has been his tight end, Dustin Keller, who has 25 receptions for 372 yards and two touchdowns. Santonio Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson and Plaxico Burress, who leads the Jets in receiving touchdowns with five, aren't far behind. The Jets have been less than stellar in the run game. Shonn Greene and Tomlinson have both struggled on the ground. They have combined for 537 rushing yards and just two rushing touchdowns.
This game will be a battle of the Bills offense against the Jets defense. But let's keep in mind that the Bills defense may have the advantage over the Jets offense. If the Bills are able to move the ball the way they have been all season long, they'll easily win this game, especially when factoring in the Bills' dominance at home and the Jets' struggles on the road.
Last time these two teams met, in the final week of last season, the Jets ran all over the Bills 38-7. The Jets are 0-2 ATS in their two games as underdogs this season. Five of the Jets' seven games this season have gone over. The Bills are 1-2 ATS this season as favorites, with Sunday's win over the Redskins being the one win of their three games favored. Six of the Bills' seven games this season have gone over, with the Redskins game being the only to go under. All three of the Jets' road games have gone over and three of the four Bills home games have gone over.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I absolutely love the Jets here. Take the NYJ +1.
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