New York Jets (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), 4:15 p.m. EST, Week 5 NFL, Sunday, October 9, 2011, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass., TV: CBS
by Badger, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +9.5/NE -9.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
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If the New York Jets trip to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots wasn’t already one of the highlight games in the AFC this Sunday afternoon, then the Jets sudden two-game losing streak has turned the pressure cooker up a few degrees to make it thee most important game of the season for Rex Ryan and his crew as they try and stay alive in the AFC East Division.
The NYJ suffered their second straight loss last Sunday in Baltimore in one of their ugliest performances in a long while, 34-17. How ugly you ask? The Jets first play from scrimmage turned into a Baltimore touchdown on a fumble return … they finished the game with more penalties (9) than first downs (7) and only 150 yards of total offense … they forced three turnovers, but lost four turnovers … they ran only 54 plays on offense and held the ball for only 22 minutes of a 60 minute game. I think you get the point.
Meanwhile, the Patriots and Tom Brady got back on track last weekend on a tough West Coast trip to Oakland, 31-19. Not that it matters really, but it was the same Raiders team in the same venue that beat the Jets, 34-24, just one week prior. Plus, the Patriots beat the Raiders with Brady have a very un-Brady like game (16-of-30, 226 yards, 2 TD), so the cards appear to be stacked against the Jets in their trip to Foxborough this weekend.
The betting public seems to have fallen off the Jets bandwagon already after a preseason full of hype, since oddsmakers opened the game with the Patriots as large 10-point favorites at home. The big odds did draw some early money on the Jets, because the number dropped to minus -9.5 or -9 at a few sportsbooks on the Web, but for the most part the big number on the Patriots remains as of midweek.
Make the Jets a +29.5 underdog by placing them into a 20 point football teaser at 5Dimes (They also offer -105 reduced vig betting on football/basketball!)
The over/under total opened at 50 late on Sunday and by midweek it has only had a slight amount of line movement down to 49.5 or 49 at a large majority of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore.
Part of the Jets problems the past two weeks has been a lack of offense, and more specifically a lack of a running game. Anyone who has followed the Jets the past few seasons knows that the Jets rely on a punishing ground game to help quarterback Mark Sanchez “manage” the game, and with a season-long average of just 71 yards a game the Jets are dangerously close to the bottom of the NFL in that category (30th).
What is ironic about this week though is that running the ball might not be in the Jets game plan at all, especially since the Patriots defense is ranked dead last in pass defense allowing 368.8 yards per game. The Pats defense also allows over 100 yards rushing a game (108.8 ypg – 19th), so at least on paper it looks like the Jets offense has a chance to right the ship this week.
The Jets could also get center Nick Mangold back this week (questionable – ankle), which will go a long way toward helping the Jets get back on track on offense.
It’s the Patriots issue on defense that has sort of forced Brady and the offense to outscore everyone, although if I had Brady I’d play pitch and catch all day long too. Through four weeks New England is No. 1 in the NFL in yardage (507.5 ypg) and passing yardage (384.8 ypg) and 3rd in scoring with a 33.8 points per game average. Heck, the only game the Patriots lost this season so far came when Brady was picked off four times at Buffalo, and he still threw for 387 yards, four touchdowns and put 31 points on the board, a terrible day that most quarterbacks in the NFL would love to have now and then.
N.E. will be facing a Jets defense that didn’t play all that bad last week in Baltimore, it was the offense that gave the Ravens 21 points. What is going to be the key to everything on Sunday is whether or not the Jets can get pressure on Brady. The Jets secondary is one of the best in the league (180.2 ypg – 2nd), but without pressure corners Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are forced to cover on an island for too long and are prone to giving up big plays (allow 23.8 ppg -15th).
These two teams have had quite a history on the field of late too, meeting three times last year with the Jets winning the most important meeting of the three, a second-round AFC playoff game in New England, 28-21 (ironically, NE was 9.5-point favorites). However, the regular season game between these two in Gillette Stadium was a Patriot rout, 45-3.
All told the Jets have won four of the last six meetings on the gridiron, but only one of those wins came in Foxborough (34-31 in OT) and it was back in 2008.
A quick look at the betting trends will show you that the Jets have done pretty good within the AFC East last year (6-2 ATS). The road team has also performed well for bettors over the years in this series (18-7-1 in last 26 head-to-head).
But New England has also done well within the division (5-2 ATS in last five vs. AFC East).
The best bet for this game is the over, if you follow trends, for both teams.
For New York the over is: 9-1 as a road underdog, 6-1 vs. the AFC East and 17-4-1 in their last 22 games away from home.
For New England the over is: 4-0 vs. AFC East, 12-1 following an ATS win, 12-2 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 16-5-1 in their last 22 games in Foxborough as a favorite.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a tough one to pick for me. My head is telling me New England, but my gut is telling me the Jets rebound this week after two horrible weeks back-to-back. I could be safe and play the trend play of the over, but I’m going with my gut. I’m taking the Jets to cover plus the 9.5-points.
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