New York Jets (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS)
Sunday January 1st, 2012. 1:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 17, Sun Life Stadium Miami, Fla.
By Jay Horne, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +1/MIA -1
Over/Under Total: 41.5
Bet the NYJ/Phins game at an online sportsbook that offers -105 odds on sides and totals. Making the switch to reduced juice betting will save you HUGE money: 5Dimes.
For the 2nd straight week in a row, the New York Jets failed to win a game that would have really enriched their chances to make the playoffs. After getting blown out by the Eagles 45-19, the Jets walked into another buzz saw in the Meadowlands last week losing to the New York Giants 29-14. Now the 8-7 Jets find their selves in another "must-win" type of situation when they take the road to battle the 5-10 Miami Dolphins inside Sun Life Stadium.
If the Jets can pull through a finally score a critical victory, they will still need help from both Oakland and Tennessee in order to earn their spot in the postseason. Standing in the way of that critical victory, is a Miami Dolphins team that still has a lot of fight left in the tank. Despite already losing head coach Tony Sparano, the Dolphins took the New England Patriots down to the wire last week in Foxboro but fell short 27-24. The Dolphins actually led 17-0 at the half in that game over the Patriots that sport the best overall record in the AFC.
This week the Dolphins look to close out the year on a positive not and add some more displeasure to Jets fans. QB Matt Moore has played well enough over the past few weeks to worry the Jets defense. Last week, Moore completed 17 of 33 passing for 294 yards with 3 scores and 1 pick. Of course when a Miami quarterback is producing behind center it normally means WR Brandon Marshall is on the other end of those passing yards. Marshall has been doing just that racking up 240 receiving yards and 2 scores over the last 2 games. Expect both guys to give another big effort this Sunday as the Dolphins attack a vulnerable Jets secondary.
Normally the Jets rather solid defense is the least of their worries. However, in recent weeks New York has given up a ton of yards and of course 69 points combined over the last 2 games as stated earlier. I think the main reason the Jets defense has been suspect in recent weeks is because teams have been able to run the ball against them. The Jets defense was gashed for over 160 yards against the Eagles for another 100 plus yards last week to the Giants. When that happened, New York appeared to lose a lot of aggressiveness with their defensive play call. Miami running back Reggie Bush has posted 4 straight 100 yard plus performances in the last 4 games and is perhaps running better than he has all season. Therefore, it will be extremely telling to see how well the Jets rush defense plays this Sunday and if they can maintain that aggressiveness through 4 quarters of play.
100% BONUS OFFER: DEPOSIT $50-$500 AND GET A ONE HUNDRED PERCENT REAL CASH SIGN-UP BONUS AT BETREVOLUTION
On offense, QB Mark Sanchez has also been hit with hard times over the last few weeks. In the loss to the Giants last week, Sanchez appeared as if he had completely lost all confidence on some of his throws. Sanchez ended the game by completing just 30 of 59 passing for 258 yards with 1 score and 2 picks. However at times, he looked like an inexperienced rookie and it is important that he turn things around. We all know Sanchez can play well, but he is starting to become so inconsistent that you never know what to expect.
Luckily for the Jets, Miami has been rather horrible against the pass this season giving up 249 yards per game (26th in NFL). Therefore, it should not be extremely too difficult for Sanchez to find some type of rhythm and then let running back Shonn Greene do some of the hefty work. Greene can handle the work load and the Jets' offense is more successful in general when they are effectively running the ball.
When that happens, the Jets can have play action off the run which usually opens the door for easier passes for Sanchez. So far this season, Greene is just 1 yard shy of the 1,000 yard plateau and posted 6 touchdowns on the ground. A statistic that is worth keeping in mind is that the Jets are 6-1 SU when Greene touches to the ball for 20 or more carries in a single game. Therefore, Jets fans should hope for success on the ground starting with Greene this Sunday in hopes the rest of the offense will come to life.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Jets beat the Dolphins rather handedly earlier this year 24-6 in a game where Miami got decent production out of their big offensive weapons. While Miami is playing better at this point in the year, I still think the Jets are a much better overall team. Additionally, New York lost to two really solid football teams in Philadelphia and New York (Giants) despite what their record may indicate. Don't loss all confidence in them now. Bet the New York Jets +1.
Editor's Picks - Each week our in house pro's tackle the week's card and make predictions on the week's games ATS! Best bets, top plays, premium selections, etc. FREE!
Expert NFL Picks - Free premium plays from the "real" expert football handicappers from around the web. Don't fall for second rate picks from ESPN, the NFL Network, Hank Goldberg or the screaming touts on TV.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We forecast the loudest barking dog of the week. Expect a 60% winning percentage with these plays.
Favorite of the Week Play - We examine "the chalk" and determine the safest bet in which who you should lay the points with. Forecasting winning favorites long term isn't easy, but we've had some pretty good luck with it over the years.
The Armchair Quarterback Predictions - ACQ makes an appearance at Predictem to give out his much coveted troika of free weekly NFL picks. Put your helmet on and tackle your bookie with these sick picks. He is simply FLAT NASTY!
Line Movement Plays - We report all the major line moves from the gridiron and forecast whether it's public money or sharp action causing the move.
NFL Consensus Picks - See what the general public is betting on. We use this info to fade the public to the tune of big profits over the course of the season.
NFL Trends - Don't ever let anybody tell you that the trend is your friend. These picks make great fades which is exactly what we do with them.
Monday Night Football Picks - The ultimate bailout play. Our MNF picks are golden and have hit 62% or better 3 out of the past 4 years. (Last season was a disaster!) Did we mention that their FREE?
Superbowl Predictions - Our take before the season on who we think will win Superbowl XLVI. We'll update with a final pick based on the actual remaining teams a week prior to the big game at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5th, 2012.
Super Bowl Picks - Everybody here in the Predictem office takes their best preseason shot at predicting the winner Superbowl 46. Pride is on the line here! Oh, and LOOT too! Picks will be updated a 2nd and final time two weeks before the Super Bowl plays.
Free UFL Picks - Point spread predictions for the United Football League each week of their season (starting in October).
5Dimes - Bet your NFL football picks at -105 odds every day of the week! 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Pleasers and huge point buying opportunities as well!
Intertops - Tired of deposit hassles? Bet on football using your credit card at a sportsbook where your Visa CAN and WILL work for deposits!
SBG Global - Best parlays odds online! Get paid 12-1 on 4 team parlays! Best at accepting credit cards for deposits too!
Football Bets - We explain all the different types of wagers that you can place on an NFL game and give advice on which ones good and which are sucker bets. We also explore the value of betting at reduce odds.
Superbowl Betting - We explain all the different types of wagers you can making including point spread bets, totals, moneylines and prop bets.
Statless NFL Handicapping - The quick, easy way and yes, it's effective!
Betting NFL Underdogs - It's the first thing you should consider every Sunday. We explain why.
Choosing an Online Sportsbook - We talk about things to consider before you commit to play at one.
Famous Football Quotes - From the inspirational to the greatest touchdown calls of all time. We've got them!
Pro Football Hall of Fame - A full list of NFL players who have been inducted into the NFL HOF.
The Spread - Offers free NFL football predictions, matchups, stats including both offensive and defensive and more!
Fantasy Football Sites - Get recommendations on where to find weekly updated player news, depth charts and legit websites that offer the best stat and record tracking for your fantasy football league.