Oakland Raiders (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), Week 5 NFL, Sunday October 9, 1:00 PM Eastern, Reliant Stadium (Field Turf), Houston Texas
By Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread: Oak +6/Hou -6
Over/Under Total: 49
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Two teams who are a combined 6-2 ATS so far this season meet in this pivotal week five matchup. The Houston Texans have been impressive on defense as they are running a different version of their 3-4 defense under new coordinator Wade Phillips. The Oakland Raiders have been impressive on offense. The Run offense, which is averaging 178.7 yards per game through four weeks, is clearly the strength of the team.
The Raiders lost 31-19 to New England as 6-point home underdogs. Tom Brady was magical while Jason Campbell was not. Campbell threw two interceptions in the game. His interception early in the fourth quarter to defensive lineman Vince Wilfork was the dagger.
The Raiders committed nine penalties for 85 yards to solidify their hold as the most penalized team over the last three seasons.
Houston defeated the Steelers 17-10 as 3.5-point home chalk this past Sunday, but may be without their No. 1 wide receiver against Oakland. Arian Foster rushed for 155 yards and scored the go-ahead touchdown after Andre Johnson left with a hamstring injury. The five-time Pro Bowl receiver was down on the field for several minutes which silenced the home crowd. He limped off to applause and walked to the locker room on his own.
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The defense will have to carry Houston if Andre Johnson misses this game. After two home games, the Texans have the number one ranked defense when playing at Reliant Stadium. Oakland is 2-2 but have allowed more points than they have scored so far this season. Both teams have starting QB's that are playing at a high level. Jason Campbell has thrown for 928 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He is completing 65.3% of his passes. Matt Schaub has not been stumped much this season. He has thrown for 961 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He is completing 65.5% of his throws. With both QB's playing at a high level this game could be decided by the pass defenses and special teams.
Oakland is ranked near the bottom third in pass defense while the Texans are ranked in the top ten. The Oakland secondary will have their hands full trying to cover WR Andre Johnson (25 rec 352 yds 2 TD), who is one of the best receivers in all of football. Late word is that his injury is not as bad as first thought and will probably start this game. The Raiders have young receivers that are still learning the ins and outs of the NFL.
When you talk about special teams play this season some of it has been nullified by all the touchbacks. About 51% of all kickoffs have been touchbacks. But, special teams rankings go a lot deeper than that. Field Position, tackling, field goals, punting, punt coverage, and average start position are included in my special teams rankings. The Raiders are ranked No. 10, while the Texans are ranked No.7 so far this season. Sebastian Janikowski has a lot to do with the Raiders being ranked so high. Check back later in the year and the Raiders might not be ranked that high.
The Texans defeated the Raiders 31-24 last season as 3.5-point road underdogs. In fact, Houston is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS all time vs. Oakland. The Raiders' stop unit would get a major boost if Safety Michael Huff can play. Huff was inactive against Brady with a concussion and is itching to get back on the field. His size and leadership would be welcomed against this Texans offense.
The Buffalo Bills exploited Oakland's secondary for a win in week two, and Tom Brady and the Patriots shredded the Oakland secondary in week four. The loss of cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is proving to be more formidable than Raiders fans had anticipated. The problem is that Oakland does not have a pass rush to compensate for the lack of a secondary. I just think this favors the home team in this spot.
The Raiders are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS vs. AFC South foes over the last three seasons.
Jeff's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Houston Texans -6.
The Texans bring in the better defense and special teams and will be playing a home game off a SU and ATS home win. Houston has been great in this role going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS as of late. Lean to the home team in this spot!
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